How Will RTX Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

RTX (NYSE: RTX) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, October 21, 2025. Historically, RTX stock has shown a tendency toward a negative one-day return following its earnings announcements. Over the last five years, the stock has dropped on 55% of the days immediately following an earnings release. These negative returns have a median value of −1.6%, with the maximum one-day decline recorded at −10.2%.

For event-driven traders, understanding these historical patterns can be a valuable advantage, though the immediate stock reaction is highly dependent on how the actual results align with market consensus and expectations.

There are two primary strategies for leveraging this information:

1. Pre-Earnings Positioning: Analyze the historical odds and take a position prior to the earnings release.
2. Post-Earnings Positioning: Examine the correlation between the immediate one-day return and the stock’s medium-term returns after the earnings are released, and position yourself accordingly.

The market consensus forecasts RTX will report earnings of $1.41 per share on sales of $21.32 billion. This compares to the year-ago quarter’s results of earnings of $1.45 per share on sales of $20.09 billion.

Financially, the company has a current market capitalization of $211 billion. Over the last twelve months, RTX generated $84 billion in revenue, reporting $8.3 billion in operating profits and a net income of $6.1 billion.

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RTX’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 9 positive returns = 2.6%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -1.6%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

RTX 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

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