RGLD Stock Surges 21% With A 11-day Winning Spree On Dividend Hike
Royal Gold (RGLD) – a precious metal streaming and royalty management company – hit a 11-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to a 21%. The company market cap has surged by about $3.3 Bil over the last 11 days and currently stands at $19 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 32.1% compared to 1% for the S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Rally?
[1] Consecutive Annual Dividend Increase
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- Announced 6% dividend increase for 2026
- First payment at new rate scheduled for Jan 16, 2026
- Impact: Increased Investor Confidence, Stock Reached New 52-Week Highs
[2] Record High Gold Prices & Sector Strength
- Gold price surpassed $4,900 per ounce
- Goldman Sachs raised 2026 gold price forecast
- Impact: Sector-Wide Positive Momentum, Heightened Institutional Interest
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is not much to fear in RGLD stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. But given its Very High valuation, the stock appears Relatively Expensive (For details, see Buy or Sell RGLD).
But here is the real interesting point.
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Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for RGLD stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | RGLD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| 11D (Current Streak) | 20.8% | -0.1% |
| 1M (21D) | 26.8% | 0.5% |
| 3M (63D) | 60.0% | 3.2% |
| YTD 2026 | 32.1% | 1.0% |
| 2025 | 70.4% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 10.4% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 8.7% | 24.2% |
However, big gains can follow sharp reversals – but how has RGLD behaved after prior drops? See RGLD Dip Buyer Analysis to learn more.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 72 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 16 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 50 | 4 |
| 4D | 15 | 7 |
| 5D | 4 | 2 |
| 6D | 1 | 3 |
| 7D or more | 2 | 0 |
| Total >=3 D | 72 | 16 |
Key Financials for Royal Gold (RGLD)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $605.7 Mil | $719.4 Mil |
| Operating Income | $303.2 Mil | $429.9 Mil |
| Net Income | $239.4 Mil | $332.0 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $209.6 Mil | $252.1 Mil |
| Operating Income | $141.8 Mil | $175.1 Mil |
| Net Income | $132.3 Mil | $126.8 Mil |
While RGLD stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.