Exxon Mobil Stock To $95?

Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to sell XOM stock. We have, overall, a pessimistic view of the stock, and a price of $95 may not be out of reach. We believe there are several things to fear in XOM stock given its overall Weak operating performance and financial condition. This isn’t appropriately reflected in the stock’s Moderate valuation which is why we think it is Unattractive.

Below is our assessment:

Ask yourself – Is holding XOM stock risky? Of course it is. High Quality Portfolio mitigates that risk.

Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $578 Bil in market cap, Exxon Mobil provides exploration, production, manufacturing, trading, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and specialty products globally.

[1] Valuation Looks Moderate

This table highlights how XOM is valued vs broader market. For more details see: XOM Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Very Weak

• Exxon Mobil has seen its top line shrink at an average rate of -5.6% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have fallen -4.4% from $340 Bil to $325 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues declined -5.1% to $83 Bil in the most recent quarter from $88 Bil a year ago.

This table highlights how XOM is growing vs broader market. For more details see: XOM Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Moderate

• XOM last 12 month operating income was $36 Bil representing operating margin of 11.0%
• With cash flow margin of 15.9%, it generated nearly $52 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, XOM generated nearly $30 Bil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 9.2%

This table highlights how XOM profitability vs broader market. For more details see: XOM Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Strong

• XOM Debt was $42 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $578 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 7.2%
• XOM Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $14 Bil of $454 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 3.0%

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Moderate

XOM saw an impact slightly worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• XOM stock fell 20.5% from a high of $104.59 on 8 June 2022 to $83.14 on 14 July 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 21 October 2022
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $134.97 on 23 January 2026 $134.97

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• XOM stock fell 55.6% from a high of $70.90 on 2 January 2020 to $31.45 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 11 January 2022

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

• XOM stock fell 34.1% from a high of $94.56 on 20 May 2008 to $62.35 on 15 October 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 19 July 2013

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read XOM Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.