Is ONEOK Stock Poised for a Rally?

We think ONEOK (OKE) stock could be a good value buy. It is currently trading lower than average valuation, and has reasonable revenue growth and strong margins to go with its modest valuation.

Buying stocks with low valuations or trading well below their peaks but maintaining strong margins allows investors to capture mean reversion and valuation re-rating potential. The downside risk is potentially less because high-margin businesses can sustain earnings and recover faster when sentiment or market conditions improve

What Is Happening With OKE

OKE may be down -24% so far this year but is now 30% cheaper based on its P/S (Price-to-Sales) ratio compared to 1 year ago, and also trades at a P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratio that is below S&P 500 median.

The stock may not reflect it yet, but here is what’s going well for the company. Acquisitions like EnLink and Medallion have significantly enhanced earnings, alongside rising NGL and natural gas processing volumes in the Rocky Mountain and Mid-Continent regions. New infrastructure, including the MB-6 fractionator and West Texas NGL Pipeline expansion to 740,000 bpd by mid-2025, boosts capacity and operational efficiency, reducing reliance on third parties. These developments imply continued revenue flow, further supported by the planned Eiger Express Pipeline. Despite Q3 revenue topping estimates, a year-to-date stock decline of over 22% suggests the market is pricing in broader sector headwinds or investor caution, even with reaffirmed full-year guidance.

OKE Has Strong Fundamentals

• Reasonable Revenue Growth: 58.4% LTM and 16.4% last 3 year average.
• Strong Margin: Nearly 21.2% 3-year average operating margin.
• No Major Margin Shock: ONEOK has avoided any large large margin collapse in the last 12 months.
• Modest Valuation: Despite encouraging fundamentals, OKE stock trades at a PE multiple of 13.8

Below is a quick comparison of OKE fundamentals with S&P medians.

*LTM: Last Twelve Months

But What Is The Risk Involved?

While OKE stock may be a compelling investment opportunity, it’s always helpful to be aware of a stock’s history of drawdown. OKE fell 42% in the Dot-Com Bubble, 65% during the Global Financial Crisis, and took a 29% hit in the 2018 Correction. The Covid Pandemic was even worse, hitting a steep 80% drop, while the Inflation Shock knocked it down nearly 30%. So even with solid fundamentals, OKE isn’t immune when the market turns sour. Risk stays real when panic sets in. But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read OKE Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

For more details and our view, see Buy or Sell OKE Stock.

Stocks Like OKE

Not ready to act on OKE? Consider these alternatives:

1. PayPal (PYPL)
2. Copart (CPRT)
3. Constellation Brands (STZ)

We chose these stocks using the following criteria:

1. Greater than $2 Bil in market cap
2. Meaningfully below 1Y high
3. Current P/S < last few year average
4. Strong operating margin
5. P/E ratio below S&P 500 median

A portfolio of stocks with the criteria above would have performed has follows since 12/31/2016:

• Average 6-month and 12-month forward returns of 12.7% and 25.8% respectively
• Win rate (percentage of picks returning positive) of > 70% for both 6-month and 12-month periods
• Strategy consistent across market cycles

Multi Asset Portfolios Offer More Upside With Less Risk

Stocks soar and sink but bonds commodities and other assets balance the ride. A multi asset portfolio keeps returns steadier and reduces single market risk.

The asset allocation framework of Trefis’ Boston-based, wealth management partner yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Our partner’ strategy now includes Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices