NY Times’ Stock To Likely See Little Movement Post Q2

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New York Times

New York Times’ stock (NYSE: NYT), a diversified media company that includes newspapers, internet businesses, television, and radio stations, is scheduled to report its Q2 2023 results on Tuesday, August 8. We expect NYT stock to likely see little to no movement with both revenues and earnings matching consensus expectations for its second-quarter results. The company continues to wrestle with the industry-wide slowdown in digital advertising and a decline in print revenues, due to a tough macro climate. For the upcoming Q2 results, NYT sees digital-only subscription revenue rising to about 12% to 15% year-over-year (y-o-y), and total subscription revenue up 6% to 8%. The digital ad revenues and the larger total ad revenues are expected to decline by low-to-mid single-digits. In addition, its operating costs in Q2 are also expected to increase by 6% to 8%.

Our forecast indicates that NY Times’ valuation is $39 per share, almost matching the current market price. Look at our interactive dashboard analysis on New York Times Earnings Preview: What To Expect in Fiscal Q2? for more details.

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(1) Revenues expected to be inline with the consensus estimates

Trefis estimates NY Times’ Q2 2023 revenues to be around $580 Mil, in line with the consensus estimate. In Q1, NYT’s revenue grew 4% y-o-y to $560.7 million. This figure came as subscriptions continued to make up for advertising in the revenue stream. To break down the revenue gains further, advertising revenue declined 9% y-o-y to $106.2 million, but subscription revenues rose 7% y-o-y to $397.5 million. Other revenue landed at $56.9 million, up 16% y-o-y. At the end of the first quarter, the company had 9.02 million digital-only subscribers. This was 9.6% above the 8.23 million that the company had one year earlier. The company’s total subscribers stood at 9.73 million in Q1. NYT continues to be on track for its target of at least 15 million total subscribers by the end of 2027.

2) EPS to likely match consensus estimates 

NYT’s Q2 2023 earnings per share (EPS) is expected to come in at 21 cents per Trefis analysis, in line with the consensus estimate. NYT adjusted earnings came in at 19 cents per share, down 10% y-o-y in Q1 2023.

(3) Stock price estimate almost inline with the current market price

Going by our NYT’s Valuation, with an EPS estimate of around $1.26 and a P/E multiple of 31.0x in fiscal 2023, this translates into a price of almost $39, which is only 3% lower than the current market price.

It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. NYT Peers shows how NYT’s stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a portfolio that aims for long-term growth? Here’s a value portfolio that’s done much better than the market since 2016.

Returns Aug 2023
MTD [1]
2023
YTD [1]
2017-23
Total [2]
 NYT Return -2% 23% 201%
 S&P 500 Return -2% 17% 101%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -3% 25% 302%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/4/2023
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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