New York Times’ stock (NYSE: NYT) has increased 8% in the last five trading days (one week). In comparison, the broader S&P500 index grew marginally over the same period. The company performed well in its fiscal fourth quarter and also boosted its dividend and set a new stock buyback. NYT’s Q4 revenues grew 17% year-over-year (y-o-y) to $594 million, as it benefited from stronger-than-expected uptake of digital products. In addition, the company’s adjusted operating net income increased 12% y-o-y to $109 million, as higher advertising, subscription, and other revenues more than offset higher costs. By the end of the fourth quarter, the Times had about 8.8 million subscribers across both digital and print platforms (of which 91% were digital subs). And, after completing the $550 million acquisition of the sports news website The Athletic on Feb 1, the company surpassed its goal of hitting 10 million subscribers by 2025. The company now set a new target of at least 15 million total subscribers by the end of 2027. It should be noted that NYT plans to begin reporting unique subscribers along with the growth of the individual sub from the next quarter.
Looking forward, New York Times expects its total subscription revenues to increase in the range of 11% to 15% y-o-y in the fiscal first quarter of 2022. Further, the company’s total advertising revenues are also expected to grow in the range of 17% to 21% y-o-y. Also, NYT’s adjusted operating costs are estimated to rise in the range of 18% to 22%.
Now, is NYT stock poised to grow further in the short term? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 57% chance of a rise in NYT stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on NYT’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.
If you are considering NYT stock as an investment option over a longer time frame, you can explore our forecast for NYT’s Valuation dashboard. We estimate the company’s valuation to be around $51 per share which is almost 22% higher than the current market price. This represents a P/EBITDA multiple of 31.2x for the company based on our forecast for NYT’s EBITDA for the current fiscal year.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using last 10 year data
 Returns of 7.8% or higher over the five-day period on 122 occasions out of 2517 (5%); Stock rose in the next five days in 73 of these 122 instances (60%)
 Returns of 4.9% or higher over the ten-day period on 487 occasions out of 2517 (19%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 274 of these 487 instances (56%)
 Returns of -8.6% or lower over the twenty-one-day period on 213 occasions out of 2516 (8%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 121 of these 213 instances (57%)
It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. NYT Peers shows how New York Times compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
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|S&P 500 Return||-1%||-6%||100%|
|Trefis MS Portfolio Return||-1%||-10%||254%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 2/7/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016