Can NVIDIA Stock Jump 50%?

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NVIDIA (NVDA) stock trades at 27.0 times earnings. That multiple sits well below the 42.8 average recorded at the end of its last 12 fiscal quarters. Under a Trefis scenario based on NVIDIA’s own figures, the stock would need sales to grow fast enough to offset an even lower multiple in order to jump 50% from its October 28 close of $215.38. So how much could three years of owning the stock make you?

Your Return From Three Years Of Owning NVIDIA

Under that scenario, NVIDIA stock would reach about $334.58 a share three years from now, rising 55.3% above today’s price. That return amounts to about 15.8% a year before dividends. The stock’s projected value relies on a simple calculation: revenue times a net margin yields earnings three years out, and those earnings times a P/E determine the price.

Here is how NVIDIA stands today against the projections for three years out:

All of the gain comes from selling more, though a slightly lower margin and a reduced P/E offset a portion of it. The lower P/E serves as an assumption rather than a finding. Trefis scales today’s P/E to account for the scenario’s slower growth against NVIDIA’s latest 83.4%, keeping the multiple at no less than three quarters of today’s level.

Nearly all of NVIDIA’s revenue comes from data centers. Data center sales accounted for $89 billion of the $96 billion total in fiscal Q2 2027, a period that ended in July 2026, management said on the August 26 call. The largest cloud companies bought $49 billion of that amount, and management put the purchases down to sustained strength in Blackwell.

Can NVIDIA Keep Sales Growing Fast Enough?

Management expects growth to outpace the scenario. The company guided fiscal Q3 2027 revenue to $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, which sits above the $96.2 billion reported for fiscal Q2 2027. Preliminary expectations for fiscal 2028 point to growth of about 70%, with supply remaining a bottleneck at least through the end of that year. The Trefis scenario projects a slower pace of 30% a year for all three years, because Trefis takes 0.80 times NVIDIA’s latest twelve-month growth and then limits that result to 30%, whereas management’s figure covers a single fiscal year.

Management expects its newest data center platform, Vera Rubin, to become the fastest product ramp in NVIDIA’s history. Production shipments began in August 2026 with purchase orders from every major hyperscaler, and management sees Vera Rubin at about 20% of data center revenue in fiscal Q3 2027. Looking at costs, memory prices have risen more than management expected. The company sees gross margin bottoming in fiscal Q4 2027 before NVIDIA’s own price increases take effect.

How NVIDIA’s Upside Shifts Under Other Assumptions

Each row below changes a single assumption while keeping the rest exactly as they appear in the scenario:

NVIDIA’s net margin over the latest twelve months is the highest at any of 40 fiscal quarter ends dating back to fiscal Q3 2017. That figure sits well above the company’s average across the 12 quarter ends preceding this latest one.

If the other assumptions remain unchanged, revenue growth could slow to 12.2% a year, compared to the 83.4% seen in the twelve months to July 2026, before three years of owning the stock return nothing. The net margin could fall from 63.7% over those twelve months down to 38.6% with the same result. The P/E could drop to 13.0, from 27.0 today, and the gain would also be gone.

When the company reports, an event expected in November 2026, NVIDIA’s revenue for fiscal Q3 2027 set against management’s guide is the number to watch.

Sitting On A Big Gain In NVIDIA?

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