Church & Dwight Earnings Ahead: What Past Reactions Say About The Stock
Church & Dwight (NYSE:CHD) is scheduled to report its earnings on Friday, October 30, 2026. The company has a market value of about $24.8 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $6.2 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in operating profit, with net income of $745 million.
Nobody knows how the market will take the numbers. What we can measure is how Church & Dwight stock has reacted to its past earnings releases, which is useful context for anyone trading around the event.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
Church & Dwight’s Historical Odds Of A Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 19 earnings releases in the last five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 47% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share falls to 42%, across 12 releases.
- The median of the 9 positive 1D returns is 4.4%, and the median of the 10 negative ones is -1.9%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 7.2% and -8.6%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/31/2026 | 1.2% | 5.8% | 4.0% |
| 5/1/2026 | -1.1% | -3.3% | -1.5% |
| 1/30/2026 | 4.7% | 9.4% | 13.4% |
| 10/31/2025 | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.8% |
| 8/1/2025 | 0.3% | -1.2% | -0.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | -7.0% | -7.4% | -0.7% |
| 1/31/2025 | -1.5% | -1.6% | 4.9% |
| 11/1/2024 | 4.8% | 4.0% | 11.6% |
| 8/2/2024 | -1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 5/2/2024 | -0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| 2/2/2024 | -2.4% | -1.8% | -0.5% |
| 11/3/2023 | -5.6% | -2.5% | 3.7% |
| 7/28/2023 | 1.3% | -0.9% | -2.5% |
| 4/27/2023 | 5.8% | 5.9% | 1.9% |
| 2/3/2023 | 3.9% | 2.7% | 5.1% |
| 10/28/2022 | -0.2% | -6.6% | 4.3% |
| 7/29/2022 | -8.6% | -9.6% | -11.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | -3.6% | -7.3% | -13.5% |
| 1/28/2022 | 4.4% | 4.4% | -0.6% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -2.9% | -1.1% |
| Max Positive | 7.2% | 9.4% | 13.4% |
| Max Negative | -8.6% | -9.6% | -13.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D And 21D Post-Earnings Returns
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. Over five years all three correlations are below 0.40 in absolute terms, so over that span the early move has not reliably predicted what followed. Over the last three years, though, the 21-day figures of -0.51 and -0.68 show early moves have tended to reverse.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | 0.12 | -0.20 | -0.27 |
| 3 Years | 0.07 | -0.51 | -0.68 |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Procter & Gamble (PG) and Kimberly-Clark (KMB) usually report about 3 to 8 days before Church & Dwight, and have already reported this season. The table compares each peer’s one-day reaction to its own earnings with Church & Dwight’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlations are PG (0.18), KMB (-0.05); the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed Church & Dwight’s. Figures this close to 0 show no consistent link.
| CHD Earnings Date | CHD 1D | PG 1D | KMB 1D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/31/2026 | 1.2% | -1.9% | n/a |
| 5/1/2026 | -1.1% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| 1/30/2026 | 4.7% | 2.6% | -0.5% |
| 10/31/2025 | 7.2% | 0.9% | 3.0% |
| 8/1/2025 | 0.3% | -0.3% | n/a |
| 5/1/2025 | -7.0% | -3.7% | -1.5% |
| 1/31/2025 | -1.5% | 1.9% | -1.5% |
| 11/1/2024 | 4.8% | 0.00% | -4.5% |
| 8/2/2024 | -1.5% | -4.8% | -5.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | -0.4% | 0.5% | 5.5% |
| 2/2/2024 | -2.4% | 4.1% | -5.5% |
| 11/3/2023 | -5.6% | 2.6% | -1.1% |
| 7/28/2023 | 1.3% | n/a | -3.1% |
| 4/27/2023 | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| 2/3/2023 | 3.9% | -2.1% | -1.9% |
| 10/28/2022 | -0.2% | 0.9% | 3.1% |
| 7/29/2022 | -8.6% | n/a | 0.4% |
| 4/28/2022 | -3.6% | 2.7% | 8.1% |
| 1/28/2022 | 4.4% | 3.4% | -3.4% |
| Correlation | – | 0.18 | -0.05 |
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