Why Is Smurfit WestRock Stock Falling?
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Smurfit WestRock (SW) shares fell 5.2% on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, while the S&P 500 rose 0.3%. The packaging maker posted the decline as it reported third-quarter results that fell short of analysts’ estimates for both earnings and revenue. So what held the quarter back, and what does management now expect for 2026?
What Held Back Smurfit WestRock’s Third Quarter?
News reports said higher costs and weak volumes held the quarter back, linking the miss to freight, energy and raw material expenses. Adjusted earnings came to $0.45 per share, short of the $0.60 consensus estimate, according to Zacks. Revenue reached $8.16 billion, below the $8.29 billion analysts expected.
Management called the cost inflation, mostly in energy and freight, unprecedented and greater than it had anticipated. It said it raised prices across most paper grades to counter those expenses, noting that the increases are passing through with a normal time lag. This means customers pay the new prices some time after the company’s own costs have already gone up.
Management also pointed to one-off events in the quarter, including heat waves in Europe and earthquakes in Colombia. A separate contamination issue in the U.S. agriculture sector hurt the company’s volumes in the United States and Mexico.
News reports noted the company lowered its 2026 outlook as well. Management now expects about $4.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA, its measure of profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, for 2026. It said energy costs alone will be about $700 million higher than a year earlier, running materially above earlier expectations. Management did point to demand, adding that corrugated volumes improved from the second quarter and practically all its paper grades remain sold out.
Did Smurfit WestRock Fall With Other Packaging Stocks?
Only partly. Four of the five companies on Smurfit WestRock’s peer list fell alongside it, but three of those peers posted smaller declines than Smurfit WestRock. O-I Glass fell 12.4%, while International Paper rose 3.3%. The materials sector, tracked by the XLB fund, rose 0.2% in the same session, indicating the drop was largely Smurfit WestRock’s own rather than its sector’s.
Where Smurfit WestRock Stock Stands Now
Declines of this magnitude are uncommon for the stock. Smurfit WestRock registered five sessions with a fall at least this large in the 365 days before this one. Its most recent bigger move in either direction was an 11.1% rise on July 24, 2026.
Over the past twelve months, the stock lost 3.1% including dividends, compared with a 14.0% return for the S&P 500. These losses are recent: the stock fell 14.4% in the three months to October 28, against a 4.4% gain for the index. The $40.33 close sits well below the 52-week closing high of $51.84 set on February 18, 2026, though it remains above the 52-week closing low of $32.79 from November 20, 2025.
Smurfit WestRock is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2026 results in February 2027. When those numbers arrive, full-year adjusted EBITDA, measured against the outlook management gave on the October 28 call, is the figure to watch.
Does This Mean You Should Act On SW?
Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.
There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.
Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.