Is NVIDIA Stock Built to Withstand More Downside?
NVIDIA (NVDA) stock is down 10.7% in 5 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around AI competition hurting software demand and China sales uncertainty, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks?
Before judging its downturn resilience, let’s look at where NVIDIA stands today.
- Size: NVIDIA is a $4.2 Tril company with $187 Bil in revenue currently trading at $171.88.
- Fundamentals: Last 12-month revenue growth of 65.2% and operating margin of 58.8%.
- Liquidity: Has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0 and a cash-to-assets ratio of 0.38
- Valuation: NVIDIA stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 42.2 and P/EBIT multiple of 35.9
- Has returned (median) 53.1% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See NVDA Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a very strong operational performance, alongside Very High valuation – making the stock Attractive but Volatile. For details, see Buy or Sell NVDA Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is NVDA stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose NVDA stock falls another 20-30% to $120—can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- NVDA stock fell 66.4% from a high of $33.38 on 29 November 2021 to $11.23 on 14 October 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 25 May 2023
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $207.04 on 29 October 2025 , and currently trades at $171.88
| NVDA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -66.4% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 223 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- NVDA stock fell 37.6% from a high of $7.87 on 19 February 2020 to $4.91 on 16 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 11 May 2020
| NVDA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 56 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- NVDA stock fell 56.1% from a high of $7.23 on 1 October 2018 to $3.18 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 14 February 2020
| NVDA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -56.1% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 417 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- NVDA stock fell 85.1% from a high of $0.99 on 17 October 2007 to $0.15 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 13 May 2016
| NVDA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -85.1% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 2,731 days | 1,480 days |
Feeling jittery about NVDA stock? Consider a portfolio approach.
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