Microsoft Stock Capital Return Hits $223 Bil

+51.18%
Upside
408
Market
616
Trefis
MSFT: Microsoft logo
MSFT
Microsoft

In the last five years, Microsoft (MSFT) stock has returned a massive $223 Bil back to its shareholders through cold, hard cash via dividends and buybacks. Let’s look at some numbers and compare how this payout power stacks up against the market’s biggest capital-return machines.

As it turns out, MSFT stock has returned the 3rd highest amount to shareholders in history.

  MSFT S&P Median
Dividends $105 Bil $3.0 Bil
Share Repurchase $118 Bil $3.0 Bil
Total Returned $223 Bil $6.0 Bil
Total Returned as % of Current Market Cap 7.1% 17.1%

Why should you care? Because dividends and share repurchases represent direct, tangible returns of capital to shareholders. They also signal management’s confidence in the company’s financial health and ability to generate sustainable cash flows. And there are more stocks like that. Here is a list of the top 10 companies ranked by total capital returned to shareholders via dividends and stock repurchases.

Top 10 Stocks By Total Shareholder Return

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  Total Money Returned As % Of Current Market Cap via Dividends via Share Repurchases
AAPL $514 Bil 12.9% $75 Bil $439 Bil
GOOGL $296 Bil 7.0% $17 Bil $279 Bil
MSFT $223 Bil 7.1% $105 Bil $118 Bil
JPM $176 Bil 20.8% $71 Bil $105 Bil
META $159 Bil 9.4% $10 Bil $149 Bil
XOM $152 Bil 23.2% $79 Bil $73 Bil
BAC $125 Bil 32.0% $45 Bil $80 Bil
CVX $112 Bil 29.2% $57 Bil $55 Bil
WFC $105 Bil 41.2% $22 Bil $83 Bil
NVDA $96 Bil 1.9% $3.0 Bil $93 Bil

For full ranking, visit Buybacks & Dividends Ranking

What do you notice here? The total capital returned to shareholders as a % of the current market cap appears inversely proportional to growth prospects for reinvestments. Stocks like Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) are growing much faster, in a more predictable way, compared to the others, but they have returned a much lower fraction of their market cap to shareholders.

That’s the flip side to high capital returns. Sure, they are attractive, but you have to ask yourself the question: Am I sacrificing growth and sound fundamentals? With that in mind, let’s look at some numbers for MSFT. (see Buy or Sell Microsoft Stock for more details)

Microsoft Fundamentals

  • Revenue Growth: 16.7% LTM and 14.4% last 3-year average.
  • Cash Generation: Nearly 25.3% free cash flow margin and 46.7% operating margin LTM.
  • Recent Revenue Shocks: The minimum annual revenue growth in the last 3 years for MSFT was 11.5%.
  • Valuation: Microsoft stock trades at a P/E multiple of 26.4

  MSFT S&P Median
Sector Information Technology
Industry Systems Software
PE Ratio 26.4 23.9

   
LTM* Revenue Growth 16.7% 6.8%
3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth 14.4% 5.5%
Min Annual Revenue Growth Last 3Y 11.5% 0.7%

   
LTM* Operating Margin 46.7% 18.6%
3Y Average Operating Margin 45.3% 18.2%
LTM* Free Cash Flow Margin 25.3% 14.2%

*LTM: Last Twelve Months

The table gives a good overview of what you get from MSFT stock, but what about the risk?

MSFT Historical Risk

Microsoft isn’t immune to big dips. It plunged about 65% during the Dot-Com Bubble and nearly 58% in the Global Financial Crisis. The 2018 correction wiped out close to 18%, while the Covid selloff hit around 28%. Even the inflation shock dragged it down over 37%. Solid fundamentals don’t stop sharp drops when sentiment turns sour.

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.