How Will Sun Communities Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Sun Communities (NYSE:SUI) is set to report its earnings on Monday, April 27, 2026. The company has $16 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $2.3 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $436 Mil in operating profits and net income of $1.4 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Sun Communities’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 14 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 64% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 2.8%, and median of the 5 negative returns = -3.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/24/2026 | 1.0% | 3.9% | -1.9% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.8% | 4.6% | 7.2% |
| 7/30/2025 | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% |
| 2/26/2025 | -0.6% | -0.0% | -4.4% |
| 11/6/2024 | -6.5% | -4.5% | -5.4% |
| 7/31/2024 | 5.1% | 1.7% | 4.9% |
| 2/20/2024 | 1.7% | -0.1% | 0.3% |
| 10/25/2023 | 4.6% | 10.2% | 21.2% |
| 7/26/2023 | -6.3% | -8.2% | -11.6% |
| 2/23/2023 | -3.9% | -9.6% | -15.7% |
| 10/24/2022 | 9.4% | 13.9% | 22.1% |
| 7/25/2022 | 0.5% | 1.5% | -0.2% |
| 2/22/2022 | -1.3% | -2.4% | -4.2% |
| 7/26/2021 | 1.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| # Negative | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 4.2% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.9% | -3.4% | -4.4% |
| Max Positive | 9.4% | 13.9% | 22.1% |
| Max Negative | -6.5% | -9.6% | -15.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 48.9% | 70.1% | 61.1% |
| 3Y History | 28.1% | 52.6% | 67.7% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Sun Communities stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Sun Communities. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| SUI Earnings Dates | SUI | ELS |
| 2/24/2026 | 1.0% | 8.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | 6.4% | -4.8% |
| 2/26/2025 | -0.6% | 1.0% |
| 11/6/2024 | -6.5% | 0.0% |
| 7/31/2024 | 5.1% | 3.5% |
| 2/20/2024 | 1.7% | -3.4% |
| 10/25/2023 | 4.6% | -5.3% |
| 7/26/2023 | -6.3% | 9.8% |
| 10/24/2022 | 9.4% | -5.9% |
| 7/25/2022 | 0.5% | 1.1% |
| 2/22/2022 | -1.3% | -2.1% |
| 7/26/2021 | 1.7% | 1.1% |
| CORRELATION | -31.6% |
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