How Will Crane Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Crane (NYSE:CR) is set to report its earnings on Monday, April 27, 2026. The company has $10 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $2.3 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $424 Mil in operating profits and net income of $367 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Crane’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 12 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 3 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 75% of the time.
- The percentage remains the same at 75% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 5.6%, and median of the 3 negative returns = -4.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/26/2026 | -11.5% | -11.7% | -2.9% |
| 10/27/2025 | 0.0% | 0.7% | -4.4% |
| 7/28/2025 | 4.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% |
| 4/28/2025 | 6.9% | 12.5% | 15.9% |
| 1/27/2025 | 12.4% | 8.2% | 4.2% |
| 10/28/2024 | 4.2% | 5.1% | 21.4% |
| 7/29/2024 | -4.8% | -11.8% | -3.6% |
| 4/22/2024 | 5.6% | 10.4% | 13.2% |
| 1/29/2024 | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% |
| 10/23/2023 | 13.6% | 13.6% | 29.0% |
| 7/25/2023 | 2.4% | 1.5% | -4.3% |
| 5/10/2023 | -1.8% | -2.1% | 6.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 5.6% | 8.2% | 11.0% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -11.7% | -4.0% |
| Max Positive | 13.6% | 13.6% | 29.0% |
| Max Negative | -11.5% | -11.8% | -4.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 20.3% | -8.7% | -23.7% |
| 3Y History | 20.3% | -8.7% | -23.7% |
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