Medtronic Stock To $50?

Medtronic (NYSE:MDT), best known for developing the world’s first battery-powered implantable pacemaker, has over the years been respected as a global leader in medical technology and has created tremendous value for its investors. While the company’s innovations have helped shape modern healthcare, its stock tells a more cautious story today. Medtronic saw its stock slide 50% from its 2021 peak of about $140 to below $70 in late 2023, partly due to the recall of its MiniMed 600 and 700 series over battery issues. While MDT stock has since recovered part of those losses and has a market cap in excess of $100 billion, it still trades roughly 30% below that high, raising questions about sustained investor confidence.

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What’s not to love? Here’s the thing: in a downturn, MDT could still lose significantly more, and we have historical evidence. In 2022, the stock dropped nearly 49%, far more than the S&P 500. So, could today’s $93 stock fall below $50 if macro conditions deteriorate? It’s possible. Now, of course, individual stocks are more volatile than a portfolio — and in this environment, if you seek upside with less volatility than a single stock, consider the High-Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P 500 and achieved returns greater than 91% since inception.

Why is that relevant now? While Medtronic continues to innovate within its segment of healthcare, economic headwinds may matter more right now. Yes, inflation pressures have cooled, but they haven’t disappeared. And rising uncertainty over global trade, interest rate policy, and medical reimbursement trends could put further strain on healthcare margins. These risks increase the chance of another downturn, or at least a rougher road for markets. Add to that political and geopolitical uncertainty, and you begin to see why a stock like Medtronic, despite its core strengths, may struggle to regain its highs.

Here is the specific data on Medtronic that concerns us:

During the last two downturns, MDT stock lost much more in value than the benchmark S&P 500 index (see the last six market crashes compared).

Inflation Shock (2022)

• MDT stock fell 48.6% from a high of $135.17 on 8 September 2021 to $69.43 on 27 October 2023, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500

• The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high

• The highest the stock has reached since then is $94.50 on 9 March 2025, and it currently trades at $92.94

Covid Pandemic (2020)

• MDT stock fell 39.9% from a high of $121.30 on 6 February 2020 to $72.92 on 23 March 2020, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500

• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 9 April 2021

Protecting Wealth

Here’s the key concern: Medtronic is still trading at a trailing P/E of ~27, despite slowing growth. Its LTM revenue growth has steadily decelerated, from above 5% eight quarters ago to below 3% in the most recent quarter. So ask yourself: if the stock drops to $70 or $50, will you hold on? Or will you panic sell? Holding on to a falling stock is never easy. Trefis works with Empirical Asset Management — a Boston area wealth manager — whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Empirical has incorporated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

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