What’s Next for Freeport Stock?

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) reported its fourth‑quarter 2025 earnings recently, with figures that beat expectations despite meaningful operational headwinds. The company posted adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.47, comfortably ahead of analysts’ forecasts near $0.28–$0.29 per share. Revenue came in around $5.63 billion, slightly down year‑over‑year but still above consensus estimates, helped by sharply higher realized commodity prices. Copper averaged roughly $5.33 per pound and gold about $4,078 per ounce in the quarter, which helped offset severe production declines caused by the Grasberg mine disruption in Indonesia late last year.

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Operationally, copper output dropped steeply — production was down more than 30% compared with the prior year — due to the temporary suspension of parts of the Grasberg Block Cave mine, one of the world’s largest copper operations. Still, the company exceeded sales volume guidance in other regions, and cash costs remained manageable relative to guidance. Freeport also generated strong operating cash flow and posted robust adjusted EBITDA of just over $2 billion for the quarter.

The stock’s price action around this earnings release has been mixed – much of the positive earnings outcome was already priced in, and concerns over production timing and future volumes tempered enthusiasm. More recently, FCX stock has shown resilience, climbing toward recent highs as optimism about the Grasberg phased restart and commodity pricing dynamics supports the longer‑term narrative. also see: Copper’s Rally Reveals a Deeper Supply-Demand Imbalance.

What’s Next?

Looking ahead, Freeport’s guidance and strategic commentary signal a cautious but constructive outlook. Management is targeting a phased restart of Grasberg operations in the second quarter of 2026, with potential full production recovery through mid‑2026 and beyond, which should materially improve production volumes and overall earnings power. For 2026, the company expects slightly lower copper sales versus 2025 and reduced gold volumes, but forecasts strong growth into 2027–2028 as major projects come online and output rebounds. Freeport also reaffirmed capital allocation priorities, balancing disciplined spending on growth initiatives with maintaining a solid balance sheet.

In summary, FCX’s most recent earnings displayed a strong beat on EPS and revenue relative to expectations, even though headline production fell sharply due to one‑off operational disruptions. Management’s guidance places significant emphasis on the recovery of Grasberg output in 2026, which could be the key driver for stock performance and earnings growth in the year ahead. We value Freeport stock at $64, currently at par with the market price.

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