How Will Mastercard Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Mastercard (NYSE:MA) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, October 30, 2025. The company has $516 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $29 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $17 Bil in operating profits and net income of $13 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Mastercard’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 2.3%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -1.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/31/2025 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 5.6% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.3% | 3.3% | 6.8% |
| 1/30/2025 | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.0% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.7% | 1.4% | 3.7% |
| 7/31/2024 | 3.6% | 0.2% | 5.4% |
| 5/1/2024 | -2.0% | 0.4% | -2.0% |
| 1/31/2024 | 0.9% | 3.4% | 6.6% |
| 10/26/2023 | -5.6% | -2.2% | 6.8% |
| 7/27/2023 | -2.0% | -3.1% | -1.2% |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| 1/26/2023 | -1.3% | -2.2% | -7.7% |
| 10/27/2022 | -0.0% | 0.1% | 9.9% |
| 7/28/2022 | 2.7% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| 4/28/2022 | 4.8% | 1.9% | -3.2% |
| 1/27/2022 | 1.7% | 15.1% | 7.1% |
| 10/28/2021 | -0.8% | -1.9% | -3.4% |
| 7/29/2021 | 1.4% | -4.0% | -8.0% |
| 4/29/2021 | -1.7% | -6.7% | -8.5% |
| 1/28/2021 | 2.8% | 5.5% | 12.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 9 | 6 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 2.2% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -2.6% | -3.4% |
| Max Positive | 4.8% | 15.1% | 12.2% |
| Max Negative | -5.6% | -6.7% | -8.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -27.5% | -23.8% | -38.8% |
| 3Y History | -68.2% | -35.0% | -35.8% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Mastercard stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Mastercard. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| MA Earnings Dates | MA | AXP | COF |
| 7/31/2025 | 1.3% | -2.8% | -1.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% |
| 1/30/2025 | 3.1% | -0.7% | 5.9% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.7% | -2.4% | 6.2% |
| 7/31/2024 | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% |
| 5/1/2024 | -2.0% | 0.2% | -3.0% |
| 1/31/2024 | 0.9% | -0.3% | 2.1% |
| 10/26/2023 | -5.6% | 1.3% | N/A* |
| 7/27/2023 | -2.0% | -3.9% | -0.8% |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.9% | -3.0% | N/A* |
| 1/26/2023 | -1.3% | N/A* | 9.0% |
| 10/27/2022 | -0.0% | 4.9% | N/A* |
| 7/28/2022 | 2.7% | -0.6% | -5.7% |
| 4/28/2022 | 4.8% | 0.8% | -2.2% |
| 1/27/2022 | 1.7% | -0.7% | -6.9% |
| 10/28/2021 | -0.8% | -6.7% | -7.5% |
| 7/29/2021 | 1.4% | -0.7% | 1.5% |
| 4/29/2021 | -1.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% |
| 1/28/2021 | 2.8% | 2.4% | 6.9% |
| CORRELATION | 7.8% | -30.7% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after MA
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