How Will Mastercard Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Mastercard (NYSE:MA) is set to report its second quarter earnings on Thursday, July 31, 2025. Earnings are expected to come in at about $4.02 per share, up almost 11% compared to last year, per consensus estimates, while revenues are projected to grow 14% to $7.95 billion. Growth is likely to be driven by strength in the cross-border transaction volume as well as value-added services. Value added services such as security and fraud protection and digital solutions are also likely to continue to witness strong growth. That said, investors will focus more on Mastercard’s outlook. The global economy could face multiple headwinds in the near term following tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on major trading partners. This could have a significant impact on Mastercard, given that its business is largely tied to consumer spending and international travel volumes. Also see, Will The Rally In XRP Price Continue?

The company has $507 billion  in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $29 billion, and it was operationally profitable, with $17 billion in operating profits and net income of $13 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.

There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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Mastercard’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 9 positive returns = 2.7%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -1.7%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Mastercard, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.

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