MGY Stock Surges 14% With A 9-day Winning Spree On BofA Upgrade To $28
Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) – a developer and producer of oil and natural gas reserves – hit a 9-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to 14%. The company’s market cap has surged by about $562 Mil over the last 9 days and currently stands at $4.7 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 16.6% compared to 1.8% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Rally?
[1] BofA Securities Upgrade to Buy
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- Rating Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
- Price Target Raised to $28
- Impact: Strengthened Investor Confidence, Catalyst for Momentum Shift
[2] Wells Fargo Rating Upgrade
- Upgraded from Underweight to Equal-Weight
- Shift from Bearish Outlook
- Impact: Improved Institutional Sentiment, Sustained Mid-Streak Momentum
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are a few things to fear in MGY stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. Considering stock’s Low valuation we think it is Attractive (For details, see Buy or Sell MGY).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this 14% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To catch the next winner before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has flagged 5 new opportunities that have not surged yet.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for MGY stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | MGY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 1.2% | -0.1% |
| 9D (Current Streak) | 13.5% | 0.4% |
| 1M (21D) | 16.3% | 0.9% |
| 3M (63D) | 12.9% | 1.1% |
| YTD 2026 | 16.6% | 1.8% |
| 2025 | -3.8% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 12.2% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | -7.3% | 24.2% |
However, big gains can follow sharp reversals – but how has MGY behaved after prior drops? See MGY Dip Buyer Analysis to learn more.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 60 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 87 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 26 | 43 |
| 4D | 25 | 20 |
| 5D | 6 | 14 |
| 6D | 1 | 8 |
| 7D or more | 2 | 2 |
| Total >=3 D | 60 | 87 |
Key Financials for Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $1.2 Bil | $1.3 Bil |
| Operating Income | $550.2 Mil | $512.0 Mil |
| Net Income | $388.3 Mil | $366.0 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $319.0 Mil | $324.9 Mil |
| Operating Income | $107.8 Mil | $101.5 Mil |
| Net Income | $78.1 Mil | $75.5 Mil |
While MGY stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.