Time To Take Positions In Las Vegas Sands Stock?

The temporary extension of casino licenses in Macau did not bring about much cheer in the shares of Las Vegas Sands stock (NYSE: LVS) as unfavorable macroeconomic events weighed on broader markets. After observing a deep contraction in April 2020, LVS stock fell to similar lows in August 2021 and December 2021. Geopolitical tension between the U.S., Russia, and China is the key setback for companies operating across multiple geographies. Notably, Sands has $14.5 billion of long-term debt on its balance sheet with almost 50% related to the construction, renovation, and other financing activities in Macau. Given the strong growth in Macau’s mass gaming business in recent years and Sands’ leadership in the segment, Trefis believes that investors have been too pessimistic on the stock. Per our machine learning engine which analyzes historical stock price movements, LVS stock has a 63% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). See our analysis Las Vegas Sands Stock Chance of Rise for more details. (related: Is Penn Stock A Safe Haven Amid Geopolitical Tensions?)

Five Days: LVS -8.2%, vs. S&P 500 -3.2%; Underperformed market (5% event probability)

• LVS stock lost 8.2% over a five-day trading period ending 03/08/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined by 3.2%.
• Returns of -8.2% or lower over a five-day period on 120 occasions out of 2515 (5%); Stock rose in the next five days in 68 of these 120 instances (57%).

Ten Days: LVS -19%, vs. S&P 500 -3.1%; Underperformed market (1% event probability)

• LVS stock lost 19% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell by 3.1%.
• Returns of -19% or lower over 10-day period on 13 occasions out of 2516 (<1%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 7 of these 13 instances (54%).

Twenty-One Days: LVS -16%, vs. S&P 500 -7.2%; Underperformed market (3% event probability)

• LVS stock fell 16% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined by 7.2%.
• Returns of -16% or lower over 21-day period on 86 occasions out of 2515 (3%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 54 of these 86 instances (63%).

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/9/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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