Should You Sell Lockheed Martin Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?

Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Tuesday, July 22, 2025. Over the past five years, LMT stock has shown a tendency for negative one-day returns following earnings reports, occurring in 55% of instances. The median negative return was -3.3%, with a maximum one-day decline of -11.8%.

For event-driven traders, understanding these historical patterns can be advantageous, though actual results against consensus estimates will be a major factor. There are two main strategies to consider:

• Pre-earnings positioning: Analyze the historical probabilities and take a position before the earnings release.
• Post-earnings positioning: Examine the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings release to guide your trading decisions.

Analysts expect LMT to report earnings of $6.57 per share on sales of $18.58 billion. This compares to the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $7.11 per share on sales of $18.12 billion.

From a fundamental perspective, LMT currently has a market capitalization of $111 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $72 billion in revenue, achieving $7.4 billion in operating profits and a net income of $5.5 billion.

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Lockheed Martin’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 9 positive returns = 2.4%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -3.3%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

LMT 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

LMT Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

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