How Eli Lilly Stock Rises To $2,000
Can Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) stock reach $2,000 in the coming years? We think there is a real possibility. How? Consider this, just about a year ago, Eli Lilly stock was trading at around $754 levels, and the stock has gained 25% and trades at about $939 per share currently. Looking at the valuations, Eli Lilly’s valuation is about 39x based on trailing adjusted earnings of $24.21 and about 27x estimated 2026 earnings. Is this pricey? Not really, considering the company’s heady earnings growth and its deft strategy, which is unlocking entirely new market strata while rapidly localizing production in key international regions.
That being said, Eli Lilly’s stock performance has been anything but smooth over the last four years, with annual returns demonstrating immense momentum but remaining susceptible to the sector’s inherent volatility. Returns for the stock were 35% in 2022, 60% in 2023, 30% in 2024, and 38% in 2025. In contrast, the broader market was considerably more volatile and offered a less dramatic upward trajectory, with the S&P 500 Index returning -19% in 2022, 24% in 2023, 23% in 2024, and 16% in 2025.
As a standalone asset, Eli Lilly provided staggering outperformance versus the benchmark index. In the scenario below, we use Eli Lilly revenues, profit margins, and valuation multiples to demonstrate a potential path to a $2,000 stock price.
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Oral GLP-1s And China Localization Will Drive Revenue Growth
Eli Lilly’s revenues have expanded from levels of about $28.5 billion in 2022 to over $65.1 billion over the last twelve months, translating into exponential multi-year growth, and the momentum can hold up. Eli Lilly is likely to see sales expand to $81.7 billion this year. However, if Eli Lilly continues its trajectory to roughly $94.9 billion in 2027, sales could rise by almost 45% over the next two years. See how Eli Lilly’s growth and margins compare to those of its peers, including Merck and AbbVie.
There are a couple of ways that Eli Lilly could boost its revenue growth rates. The recent launch of Orforglipron, an oral GLP-1, is enabling the company to attract needle-averse and price-sensitive demographics. This drug introduces a highly accessible tiered pricing structure: $25 per month for commercially insured patients, $149 to $349 for self-pay patients, and roughly $50 per month for Medicare Part D beneficiaries starting in July 2026. Considering the broader obesity population in the U.S. includes approximately 100 million people, this accessibility unlocks massive new demand. RBC Capital’s projections suggest this single treatment could generate $1.7 billion in revenue in 2026 alone, with peak sales scaling to $35 billion.
Moreover, the upside from international penetration could drive further growth. Eli Lilly has announced a $3 billion investment to build local manufacturing capacity in China. By localizing production, the company effectively circumvents previous import bottlenecks. With the Orforglipron marketing application already filed with China’s National Medical Products Administration, this deep localization sets the stage for a dramatic increase in overseas sales volume.
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Favorable Unit Economics Will Drive Margin Expansion
Eli Lilly is increasingly focused on boosting its margins, driven by economies of scale and superior product economics. Its adjusted net income margins, which stood at 24.9% in 2022, have improved to 33.4% over the last twelve months. We think it’s possible that net margins could grow to around 38% in 2026, implying a 500 basis point expansion y-o-y, as revenue growth outpaces operating costs.
A key advantage for Eli Lilly is that Orforglipron adds a structural kicker to the company’s profitability. As a small molecule treatment with no cold chain requirements, its cost of goods sold structure is meaningfully better than injectable alternatives at equivalent volumes. As the company grows its patient base, these logistical and manufacturing efficiencies allow for a disproportionate boost to margins.
Eli Lilly does face potential headwinds, specifically pricing pressure from access agreements and the longer-term ceiling risks associated with IRA Medicare negotiations. However, the sheer volume scaling from localized manufacturing offsets much of this pressure. Combining revenue expectations of roughly $105 billion by 2028 with net margins settling near 40%, this would translate into adjusted earnings per share of approximately $50.
Eli Lilly Valuation
Now, if earnings expand by roughly 2x, growing from current trailing levels to $50 per share, the PE multiple will fall by a similar level, assuming the stock price stays the same. But that’s exactly what Eli Lilly investors are betting will not happen. If earnings expand 2x over the next few years, instead of the PE contracting from a figure around 38.6x presently to about 19x, a scenario where the PE metric stays at about 35-40x looks more likely. Why is that?
Stronger growth and expanding margins will likely give investors more confidence about Eli Lilly’s future, translating into a smaller contraction in its multiple. This effectively means that an earnings expansion to $50, with a slight multiple contraction to 35x, would translate into a stock price of $1,750. Furthermore, if the current 39x multiple remains completely intact amid strong revenue and earnings visibility, an appreciation to levels of about $2,000 becomes a real possibility.
What about the time horizon for this high-return scenario? While our above example illustrates a roughly two-to-three-year time frame looking toward 2028, in practice, it won’t make much difference exactly when it hits. As long as Eli Lilly is on this revenue expansion trajectory, with margins holding up, the stock price could respond similarly.
Eli Lilly’s structural GLP-1 advantages and accelerating margin inflection make it a compelling pick, but picking the right biopharma winners still carries risk. If you want to deploy high-conviction, data-backed strategies across your entire portfolio without managing the day-to-day execution yourself, we can help. Our Trefis High Quality Portfolio (HQ) strategy has outperformed its market benchmark (a combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000) to produce over 105% returns since inception.