Snowflake Stock To $109?
Snowflake (SNOW) stock has fallen by 13.6% in less than a month, from $162.33 on 26th Mar, 2026 to $140.32 now. What comes next? We think that the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in context of stock’s Very High valuation, suggest possibility of further downside. A price of $109 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years. Read Buy or Sell Snowflake Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on SNOW stock to help you make the decision. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 0.5%, with median peak return reaching 43%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 20% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
- META Stock: The Math Behind The Upside
- TSLA Stock: 4 Impending Events That Could Invalidate the Thesis
- Could This Fuel The Next Surge in Intel Stock
- EPAM Systems Stock: Strong Cash Flow Poised for a Re-Rating?
- Comcast Stock Shares $24 Bil Success With Investors
- 3M Stock Pays Out $24 Bil – Investors Take Note
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 3.1% |
| 3M | -3.5% |
| 6M | 12.6% |
| 12M | 0.5% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
SNOW had 10 events since 9/16/2020 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered
- 43% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 238 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -14% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | SNOW Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | SNOW | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 1% | 43% | -14% | 238 | ||||
| 4092026 | -22% | -2% | 6% | 18% | -8% | 13 | ||
| 12152025 | -22% | -0% | -35% | 9% | -44% | 22 | ||
| 3282025 | -22% | -9% | 1% | 84% | -13% | 220 | ||
| 6182024 | -22% | 6% | 67% | 66% | -15% | 365 | ||
| 3082024 | -21% | 5% | -6% | 19% | -33% | 347 | ||
| 3172023 | -24% | -6% | 16% | 74% | -1% | 334 | ||
| 11042022 | -23% | 2% | 21% | 44% | -8% | 223 | ||
| 1202022 | -23% | -5% | -46% | 11% | -59% | 21 | ||
| 3082021 | -25% | -0% | -10% | 88% | -12% | 253 | ||
| 1202021 | -27% | 4% | 0% | 43% | -33% | 300 | ||
1Y Refers to 1 year or time since recent dip, whichever is smaller
Snowflake Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 29.2% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 31.4% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 26.1% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | -157.1 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 485.6 |
Not sure if you can take a call on SNOW stock? Consider portfolio approach
The Best Investors Think In Portfolios
Single stocks swing wildly, but staying invested matters. A well-built portfolio helps you stay invested, captures upside, and softens the blows from individual stocks.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? HQ Portfolio has posted more than 105% in cumulative return since inception, with less risk versus the benchmark index, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.