Fastly Stock To $17?
Fastly (FSLY) stock has fallen by 29.1% in less than a month, from $33.50 on 2nd Apr, 2026 to $23.76 now. What comes next? We think that the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in context of our Unattractive opinion of the stock, suggest possibility of further downside. A price of $17 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years. Read Buy or Sell Fastly Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on FSLY stock to help you make the decision. The bad news is that historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was -39%, even though median peak return was 49%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 30% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
- RH Stock: Strong Cash Flow Poised for a Re-Rating?
- Intuitive Surgical Stock at Support Zone – Bargain or Trap?
- Tractor Supply Stock Hits Key Support – Buying Opportunity?
- What Is Happening With Phillips 66 Stock?
- Is T-Mobile US Stock an Under-Analyzed Capital Compounder Opportunity?
- Structural Risks to Watch For AMD Stock Over the Next 6 Months
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 4.6% |
| 3M | 7.1% |
| 6M | -17.2% |
| 12M | -38.8% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
FSLY had 14 events since 5/17/2019 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 49% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 108 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -52% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | FSLY Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | FSLY | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -39% | 49% | -52% | 108 | ||||
| 3032025 | -30% | -1% | 234% | 224% | -24% | 364 | ||
| 9062024 | -30% | 0% | 40% | 101% | -12% | 94 | ||
| 5022024 | -34% | -3% | -34% | 29% | -43% | 221 | ||
| 3052024 | -33% | 5% | -51% | 3% | -58% | 6 | ||
| 10122023 | -33% | -4% | -54% | 58% | -64% | 123 | ||
| 9012022 | -30% | -1% | 174% | 175% | -15% | 365 | ||
| 5102022 | -36% | -12% | 18% | 53% | -33% | 325 | ||
| 1212022 | -35% | -7% | -64% | 5% | -74% | 25 | ||
| 8052021 | -30% | 5% | -72% | 36% | -75% | 91 | ||
| 5062021 | -34% | 8% | -67% | 44% | -69% | 53 | ||
| 3042021 | -33% | -2% | -75% | 17% | -77% | 11 | ||
| 11182020 | -33% | 5% | -44% | 45% | -54% | 83 | ||
| 3112020 | -35% | -16% | 394% | 744% | -27% | 216 | ||
| 10162019 | -31% | 2% | 302% | 477% | -50% | 363 | ||
1Y Refers to 1 year or time since recent dip, whichever is smaller
Fastly Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 14.8% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 13.1% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 15.1% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | -8.4 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 28.5 |
Not sure if you can take a call on FSLY stock? Consider portfolio approach
The Best Investors Think In Portfolios
Stocks can jump or crash, but long-term success comes from staying invested. The right portfolio helps you ride gains and cushion single stock drops.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? HQ Portfolio has posted more than 105% in cumulative return since inception, with less risk versus the benchmark index, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.