Can Intel Stock Recover If Markets Fall?
Intel (INTC) stock is down 5.2% in a day. The recent slide reflects concerns around OpenAI’s snub and plunging earnings estimates, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Intel stands today.
- Size: Intel is a $162 Bil company with $53 Bil in revenue currently trading at $35.91.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of -1.5% and operating margin of -0.2%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.29 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.15
- Valuation: Intel stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 818.7 and P/EBIT multiple of 56.7
- Has returned (median) -0.2% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See INTC Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Moderate valuation – making the stock Unattractive.
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is INTC stock if markets turn south? While we like to buy dips when the fundamentals check out (see Buy or Sell INTC Stock) – we stay wary of potential falling knives.
This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose INTC stock falls another 20-30% to $25 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. You can’t predict what happens to individual stocks, but you can prepare. See how High Quality Portfolio helps you.
Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: INTC provides design, manufacture, and sale of computer products and technologies, with AI-driven drug search advancements through a strategic partnership with MILA.
2022 Inflation Shock
- INTC stock fell 63.3% from a high of $68.26 on 9 April 2021 to $25.04 on 11 October 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $50.76 on 27 December 2023 , and currently trades at $35.91
| INTC | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -63.3% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- INTC stock fell 34.8% from a high of $68.47 on 24 January 2020 to $44.61 on 16 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
| INTC | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -34.8% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- INTC stock fell 26.1% from a high of $58.82 on 22 April 2019 to $43.46 on 3 June 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 26 November 2019
| INTC | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 176 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- INTC stock fell 56.8% from a high of $27.98 on 6 December 2007 to $12.08 on 23 February 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 26 March 2012
| INTC | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -56.8% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1127 days | 1480 days |
It is a good thing to keep in mind how low INTC could go during a downturn. And you should also check how the stock fared when compared with the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.