HUBS Stock Falls -20% With A 6-day Losing Spree On Sector-Wide AI Fears
HubSpot (HUBS) – a cloud-based CRM platform with marketing, sales, and service tools – hit 6-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to a -20%. The company market cap has crashed by about $3.9 Bil over the last 6 days, and currently stands at $16 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 24.7% compared to 0.4% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity, or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] Software Sector Headwinds and AI Disruption Concerns
- IBM Proves Old Tech Can Win At New AI
- Microsoft’s $250 Billion Problem Has a Name: OpenAI
- META Crushes Earnings, Then Announces Insane Capex. Now What?
- Buying VST at a Discount? You Are Getting Paid to Do It
- Catalysts That Could Propel Apple Stock to the Moon
- What Could Go Wrong With Broadcom Stock?
- Reports of a ‘monetization gap’ between AI infrastructure and software companies
- Increased concerns over AI coding tools impacting legacy software stocks
- Impact: Broad institutional selling across the software sector, Negative investor sentiment
[2] Technical Breakdown and Fading Momentum
- Shares down 4.79% on January 13th, indicating sustained selling pressure
- Reports of fading momentum after a steep one-year share price pullback
- Impact: Stock price gapped down to $314.89 on January 16th, Set a new 1-year low on January 20th
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are only a couple of things to fear in HUBS stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. This is aligned with the stock’s High valuation because of which we think it is Fairly Priced (For details, see Buy or Sell HUBS).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -20% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for HUBS stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | HUBS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -0.8% | 1.2% |
| 6D (Current Streak) | -19.6% | -1.5% |
| 1M (21D) | -22.5% | 1.5% |
| 3M (63D) | -33.1% | 2.1% |
| YTD 2026 | -24.7% | 0.4% |
| 2025 | -42.4% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 20.0% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 100.8% | 24.2% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: HUBS Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 28 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 34 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 11 | 12 |
| 4D | 4 | 13 |
| 5D | 4 | 2 |
| 6D | 2 | 2 |
| 7D or more | 7 | 5 |
| Total >=3 D | 28 | 34 |
Key Financials for HubSpot (HUBS)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $2.2 Bil | $2.6 Bil |
| Operating Income | $-104.1 Mil | $-63.6 Mil |
| Net Income | $-164.5 Mil | $4.6 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $760.9 Mil | $809.5 Mil |
| Operating Income | $-23.5 Mil | $12.3 Mil |
| Net Income | $-3.3 Mil | $16.5 Mil |
The losing streak HUBS stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.