How Will Intercontinental Exchange Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, October 30, 2025. The company has $90 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $12 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $4.6 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.8 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Intercontinental Exchange’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 37% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 7 positive returns = 3.1%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -1.0%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/31/2025 | -0.5% | 1.2% | -4.6% |
| 5/1/2025 | 1.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% |
| 2/6/2025 | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.9% |
| 10/31/2024 | -6.4% | -6.4% | -3.3% |
| 8/1/2024 | -0.4% | -0.3% | 5.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | -1.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% |
| 2/8/2024 | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% |
| 11/2/2023 | -1.8% | 0.8% | 5.5% |
| 8/3/2023 | -2.5% | -0.7% | 2.6% |
| 5/4/2023 | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| 2/2/2023 | -0.6% | 0.2% | -6.0% |
| 11/3/2022 | 3.1% | 5.0% | 17.9% |
| 8/4/2022 | 4.3% | 2.9% | -1.0% |
| 5/5/2022 | -7.5% | -13.9% | -8.1% |
| 2/3/2022 | -0.9% | 0.0% | 5.2% |
| 10/28/2021 | 1.9% | 3.2% | -2.5% |
| 7/29/2021 | -0.4% | -1.5% | -3.1% |
| 4/29/2021 | -1.2% | -3.7% | -5.9% |
| 2/4/2021 | -0.7% | -3.2% | -0.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 12 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.0% | -3.2% | -3.3% |
| Max Positive | 4.7% | 6.7% | 17.9% |
| Max Negative | -7.5% | -13.9% | -8.1% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 38.6% | 1.0% | -10.1% |
| 3Y History | 18.3% | 8.4% | 14.9% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Intercontinental Exchange stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Intercontinental Exchange. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE Earnings Dates | ICE | SCHW | CME | NDAQ |
| 7/31/2025 | -0.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 5/1/2025 | 1.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 1.9% |
| 2/6/2025 | 4.3% | 3.3% | N/A* | 2.5% |
| 10/31/2024 | -6.4% | -1.6% | -0.8% | -1.8% |
| 8/1/2024 | -0.4% | -5.5% | -0.5% | 0.1% |
| 5/2/2024 | -1.7% | 5.8% | -2.4% | -0.4% |
| 2/8/2024 | 4.7% | -1.1% | N/A* | -1.7% |
| 11/2/2023 | -1.8% | 2.3% | -0.7% | -4.0% |
| 8/3/2023 | -2.5% | -0.2% | 2.1% | -2.1% |
| 5/4/2023 | 1.8% | -10.2% | -0.5% | -6.2% |
| 2/2/2023 | -0.6% | -5.8% | N/A* | 3.9% |
| 11/3/2022 | 3.1% | 17.1% | -0.6% | 9.9% |
| 8/4/2022 | 4.3% | 12.7% | 2.1% | 8.1% |
| 5/5/2022 | -7.5% | -6.8% | -5.6% | -10.4% |
| 2/3/2022 | -0.9% | -3.5% | N/A* | 5.0% |
| 10/28/2021 | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 3.9% |
| 7/29/2021 | -0.4% | -0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4/29/2021 | -1.2% | 9.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| 2/4/2021 | -0.7% | -6.8% | N/A* | 1.2% |
| CORRELATION | 5.8% | -78.8% | 31.7% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after ICE
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