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Investment Overview for Nasdaq OMX Group (NASDAQ:NDAQ)

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings

• Nasdaq reported $4.3 billion in total revenues for the full year 2019, declining by 0.4% (y-o-y) majorly due to low volatility in cash equities and equity options market.

• However, the net revenues remained fairly stable, primarily from 10% (y-o-y) growth in recurring revenues from non-trading segments.

• The company's technology solutions business observed a 25%(y-o-y) growth, driven by Cinnober acquisition and growing deal volumes.

• Moreover, Airbus’ wholly-owned subsidiary Skytra selected Nasdaq as a technology provider for its upcoming derivatives trading venue for the air travel industry to hedge revenue risk.

Outlook for FY 2020

• Trefis expects Nasdaq’s total revenues to grow at a low single-digit rate for the full year 2020.

• Per recent filings, Nasdaq’s non-trading segments are likely to grow at a 5-7% rate in the medium term.

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Below are some key drivers of NASDAQ's value with potential upside or downside to our price estimate for the company's stock.

• Daily Volume of U.S. Listed Options Contracts The daily volume of options contracts traded across all exchanges in the U.S. has reached over 18.2 million in 2018, and we estimate that it will reach approximately 19.7 million by the end of our forecast period, largely because of the shift toward electronic trading. Also, growth in algorithmic (high-volume) trading will boost volumes moving forward. However, there could be about 5% upside to our price estimate for Nasdaq if the daily volume of options contracts increases to just over 29 million by the end of the forecast period.
• Market Share of U.S. Listed Shares Since past couple of years, NASDAQ has been losing market share in U.S. cash equities due to increasing competition from electronic exchanges like BATS Global Markets and Direct Edge NASDAQ. NASDAQ's share in the U.S. market decreased from 21% in 2011 to 17.4% in 2016. However, 2017 saw the market share increase to around 18%. This value rose further to 19.43% in 2018. We expect NASDAQ's market share to increase maringally in the near term and then stabilize at about 19.7% throughout our forecast period. If NASDAQ manages to gain another 10% market share by the end of our forecast period this would present an upside of about 5% to our price estimate.

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Nasdaq OMX Group ("NASDAQ") is a global exchange group that provides trading, exchange technology, securities listing, and public company services globally. The company's financial services include equity and derivatives trading, market data products, index services, financial services and market technology products.

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NASDAQ Stock Market

As of December 31, 2018, the NASDAQ Stock Market had 4,077 listed companies. The company also operates a second equity market in addition to options and futures markets and a derivative clearinghouse. The NASDAQ market is the company's most well-known brand, and U.S. listing and cash-equity trading (which we present as two separate divisions) account for under 21% of the company's value, according to Trefis estimates.

Europe Operations

In Europe, NASDAQ operates the NASDAQ OMX Nordic, NASDAQ OMX Baltic and NASDAQ OMX Europe, in addition to NASDAQ OMX Commodities and NASDAQ OMX Armenia. According to Trefis estimates, European Cash & Options trading and European Listings account for over 1.5% of the company's value. However this doesn't include the market data, market technology and access services provided to European customers.

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Economic recovery to drive volumes

Over the past couple of years, recovery in economic conditions, coupled positive outlook of the capital markets have heightened investor confidence and improved the financial condition of listed companies. Consequently, the company saw strong growth in the number of new listings on the exchange. Further, enhanced volatility has resulted in greater trading volumes. As economic conditions continue to improve, we expect that these trends to sustain in near term and drive growth in trading volumes, and listings.

Intense competition among exchanges

There is intense competition among exchange operators such as IntercontinentalExchange Group (which owns NYSE), NASDAQ OMX Group and CME Group, for trading volumes, listings and technology services customers. Newer entrants have tried to offer discounted fees in order to attract volumes, which could force NASDAQ to follow suit. This could impact revenues and in turn margins.

How Does Trefis Modelling Work?

How do we get the historical numbers for this chart?

Trefis has a team of in-house Analysts who gather historical data from company filings and other verifiable sources. When historicals are available, we explain how we got them at the bottom of the Trefis analysis section below.

Who came up with the Trefis forecast for future years?

The Trefis team of in-house Analysts considers a variety of factors when projecting any forecast. The rationale for our projections is explained in the Trefis analysis section below.

How does my dragging the trendline on the chart impact the stock price?

1. We use forecasts for business drivers to calculate forecasted Revenues and Profits for each division of the company.
2. We then use forecasted Profits in a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to obtain the Price Estimate for the company.

See more on: DCF Methodology

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