How Will Hologic Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Hologic (NASDAQ:HOLX) is set to report its earnings on Monday, November 3, 2025. The company has $17 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $4.0 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $759 Mil in operating profits and net income of $557 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Hologic’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 3.6%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -3.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2025 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| 5/1/2025 | -5.4% | -1.9% | 8.3% |
| 1/13/2025 | -2.0% | -2.7% | -10.1% |
| 11/4/2024 | -5.9% | -5.2% | -8.2% |
| 7/29/2024 | 3.6% | 3.4% | 0.1% |
| 5/2/2024 | 0.8% | -0.2% | -1.8% |
| 2/1/2024 | -2.6% | -1.3% | 0.3% |
| 11/9/2023 | 7.3% | 8.1% | 2.2% |
| 7/31/2023 | -3.5% | -3.0% | -4.3% |
| 5/1/2023 | -4.2% | -5.2% | -10.0% |
| 1/9/2023 | 2.5% | 2.7% | 10.7% |
| 10/31/2022 | 9.3% | 9.7% | 12.3% |
| 7/27/2022 | -0.2% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| 4/27/2022 | 0.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% |
| 1/10/2022 | 4.5% | -1.0% | 5.3% |
| 11/1/2021 | -2.4% | -2.1% | 0.5% |
| 7/28/2021 | 2.4% | 6.3% | 8.3% |
| 4/28/2021 | -8.5% | -9.5% | -12.6% |
| 1/27/2021 | 4.5% | 13.5% | -0.6% |
| 11/4/2020 | 4.0% | -5.3% | -0.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 6.3% | 3.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -2.7% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 9.3% | 13.5% | 12.3% |
| Max Negative | -8.5% | -9.5% | -12.6% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -9.0% | 5.0% | -12.2% |
| 3Y History | -42.7% | -14.4% | 15.6% |
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