Hologic (HOLX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $75.01 | Market Cap: $16.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
Hologic (HOLX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $75.01Market Cap: $16.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HOLX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate 11.8% stock movement for Hologic (HOLX) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Definitive Acquisition Agreement Announced.
Hologic's stock saw significant upward movement following the announcement on October 21, 2025, of a definitive agreement to be acquired by funds managed by Blackstone and TPG. The transaction was valued at up to $79 per share, including $76 per share in cash and a non-tradable contingent value right of up to $3 per share, representing a substantial premium to Hologic's prior trading price. Reports of renewed interest in a takeover by Blackstone and TPG had already driven the stock up by 7.7% on September 17, 2025, and 7.45% on October 18, 2025.
2. Strong Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat.
On November 3, 2025, Hologic reported robust financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter ended September 27, 2025. The company announced adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.13, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.10. Additionally, revenue reached $1.05 billion, exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $1.03 billion and representing a 6.2% increase year-over-year. This positive earnings report contributed to a 4.3% increase in HOLX shares in after-hours trading.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HOLX Return | 39% | 5% | -2% | -4% | 1% | 4% | 43% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 14% | -9% | -2% | 6% | -1% | 20% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HOLX Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 44% | 38% | 40% | 35% | 35% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HOLX Max Drawdown | -44% | -17% | -20% | -13% | -1% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -6% | -21% | -16% | -7% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RMD, COO, HSIC, DAVI, EMI. See HOLX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HOLX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 604 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 88 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 494 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 279.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 367 days | 1480 days |
Compare to RMD, COO, HSIC, DAVI, EMI
In The Past
Hologic's stock fell -27.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/4/2021. A -27.7% loss requires a 38.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HOLX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| 04302025 | HOLX | Hologic | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.1% | 28.6% | -9.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| 04302025 | HOLX | Hologic | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.1% | 28.6% | -9.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hologic
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-Q 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11272024 | 10-K 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2022024 | 10-Q 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11212023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2012023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11152022 | 10-K 9/24/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/25/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/26/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2022022 | 10-Q 12/25/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11162021 | 10-K 9/25/2021 |
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