Hologic (HOLX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $74.94 | Market Cap: $16.8 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
Hologic (HOLX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $74.94Market Cap: $16.8 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 19% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 30x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -69% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.1% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.4% | Key risksHOLX key risks include [1] an FDA warning letter and over 100 lawsuits related to its BioZorb product, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 19% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.4% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -69% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 30x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.1% |
| Key risksHOLX key risks include [1] an FDA warning letter and over 100 lawsuits related to its BioZorb product, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HOLX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Hologic's stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025:
1. Hologic Announced Strong Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2025 Results and an Acquisition Agreement.
Hologic reported its fiscal fourth quarter results on November 3, 2025, announcing revenue of $1,049.5 million, a 6.2% increase, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.13, up 11.9%. These results surpassed analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings per share. The company also announced a definitive agreement on October 21, 2025, to be acquired by funds managed by Blackstone and TPG in a transaction valued at up to $79 per share. This news likely provided a significant boost to investor confidence and the stock price.
2. Strong Performance in Key Business Segments, Particularly Diagnostics and Surgical.
The company's Diagnostics segment saw a 2.4% increase in revenue, driven by higher core U.S. molecular diagnostics sales, particularly from BV CV/TV and Panther Fusion assays. The Surgical segment experienced substantial growth of 10.2%, or 9.5% in constant currency, fueled by increased sales of MyoSure and Fluent, and the acquired Gynesonics business. These segment performances contributed to the overall positive financial results.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HOLX Return | 39% | 5% | -2% | -4% | 1% | 4% | 44% |
| Peers Return | 17% | 17% | -10% | -0% | -1% | 15% | 39% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HOLX Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 58% | 47% | 48% | 47% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HOLX Max Drawdown | -44% | -17% | -20% | -13% | -1% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -6% | -20% | -14% | -6% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ABT, BDX, DHR, JNJ, MDT. See HOLX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HOLX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 604 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 88 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 494 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 279.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 367 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to RMD, COO, HSIC, DAVI, EMI
In The Past
Hologic's stock fell -27.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/4/2021. A -27.7% loss requires a 38.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HOLX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| 04302025 | HOLX | Hologic | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.1% | 28.9% | -9.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| 04302025 | HOLX | Hologic | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.1% | 28.9% | -9.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hologic
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 161.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 142.1 |
| Rev LTM | 29,513 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,666 |
| FCF LTM | 5,112 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,264 |
| CFO LTM | 6,716 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,762 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 142.1 |
| P/S | 4.5 |
| P/EBIT | 21.7 |
| P/E | 28.1 |
| P/CFO | 18.1 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 13.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -57.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2025 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| 7/30/2025 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| 5/1/2025 | -5.4% | -1.9% | 8.3% |
| 1/13/2025 | -2.0% | -2.7% | -10.1% |
| 11/4/2024 | -5.9% | -5.2% | -8.2% |
| 7/29/2024 | 3.6% | 3.4% | 0.1% |
| 5/2/2024 | 0.8% | -0.2% | -1.8% |
| 2/1/2024 | -2.6% | -1.3% | 0.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 6.3% | 3.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.4% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 9.3% | 14.6% | 12.3% |
| Max Negative | -8.5% | -9.5% | -13.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11182025 | 10-K 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-Q 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11272024 | 10-K 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2022024 | 10-Q 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11212023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2012023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11152022 | 10-K 9/24/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/25/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/26/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2022022 | 10-Q 12/25/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |