Hologic (HOLX)
Market Price (4/7/2026): $76.04 | Market Cap: $17.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
Hologic (HOLX)
Market Price (4/7/2026): $76.04Market Cap: $17.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.6% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -26%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 22x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 31x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.4% Key risksHOLX key risks include [1] an FDA warning letter and over 100 lawsuits related to its BioZorb product, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -26%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 22x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 31x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.4% |
| Key risksHOLX key risks include [1] an FDA warning letter and over 100 lawsuits related to its BioZorb product, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Hologic (HOLX) stock has remained largely at the same level since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Q1 Fiscal 2026 Financial Results with Missed Estimates and Tariff Impact.
Hologic reported Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue of $1,047.8 million, marking a 2.5% year-over-year increase but missing the consensus estimate of $1.07 billion. Non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.04 also fell short of analysts' expectations by $0.05. Furthermore, non-GAAP gross margins decreased by 150 basis points, primarily attributed to increased tariff expenses of $15.3 million. This blend of modest growth, an earnings miss, and margin pressure likely contributed to the stock's overall stability.
2. Impending Acquisition by Blackstone and TPG and Analyst "Hold" Ratings Limiting Upside.
A special meeting of stockholders was scheduled for February 5, 2026, to vote on a merger agreement with funds managed by Blackstone and TPG, with a proposed acquisition price of $79 per share. This pending acquisition likely established a ceiling for the stock's price. Concurrently, analysts maintained an average "Hold" rating, with a consensus one-year price target of $78.42, closely aligning with the acquisition price and the stock's recent trading levels near its 52-week high of $75.75. This analyst sentiment indicated limited perceived upside, reinforcing the stock's stable trend.
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1. Mixed Q1 Fiscal 2026 Financial Results with Missed Estimates and Tariff Impact.
Hologic reported Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue of $1,047.8 million, marking a 2.5% year-over-year increase but missing the consensus estimate of $1.07 billion. Non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.04 also fell short of analysts' expectations by $0.05. Furthermore, non-GAAP gross margins decreased by 150 basis points, primarily attributed to increased tariff expenses of $15.3 million. This blend of modest growth, an earnings miss, and margin pressure likely contributed to the stock's overall stability.
2. Impending Acquisition by Blackstone and TPG and Analyst "Hold" Ratings Limiting Upside.
A special meeting of stockholders was scheduled for February 5, 2026, to vote on a merger agreement with funds managed by Blackstone and TPG, with a proposed acquisition price of $79 per share. This pending acquisition likely established a ceiling for the stock's price. Concurrently, analysts maintained an average "Hold" rating, with a consensus one-year price target of $78.42, closely aligning with the acquisition price and the stock's recent trading levels near its 52-week high of $75.75. This analyst sentiment indicated limited perceived upside, reinforcing the stock's stable trend.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.0% change in HOLX stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 74.49 | 76.01 | 2.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,100 | 4,126 | 0.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.8% | 13.2% | -4.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.5 | 31.4 | 6.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 224 | 224 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HOLX | 2.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 11.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | -5.5% | 10.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.6% change in HOLX stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 67.49 | 76.01 | 12.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,039 | 4,126 | 2.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.8% | 13.2% | -4.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.2 | 31.4 | 15.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 224 | 224 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HOLX | 12.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 8.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.6% | 13.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 23.1% change in HOLX stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 64.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 61.77 | 76.01 | 23.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,039 | 4,126 | 2.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.4% | 13.2% | -28.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.1 | 31.4 | 64.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 230 | 224 | 2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 23.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HOLX | 23.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 24.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 1.6% | 32.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.8% change in HOLX stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -40.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 80.70 | 76.01 | -5.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,466 | 4,126 | -7.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.2% | 13.2% | -40.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.2 | 31.4 | 55.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 247 | 224 | 10.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HOLX | -5.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 21.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 18.3% | 38.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HOLX Return | 5% | -2% | -4% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 4% |
| Peers Return | 17% | -10% | -0% | -1% | 14% | -5% | 13% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -4% | 75% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HOLX Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 47% | 48% | 47% | 60% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HOLX Max Drawdown | -17% | -20% | -13% | -1% | -27% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -20% | -14% | -6% | -11% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ABT, BDX, DHR, JNJ, MDT. See HOLX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HOLX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 604 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 88 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 494 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 279.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 367 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ABT, BDX, DHR, JNJ, MDT
In The Past
Hologic's stock fell -27.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/4/2021. A -27.7% loss requires a 38.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Hologic (HOLX)
Hologic, Inc. develops, manufactures, and supplies diagnostics products, medical imaging systems, and surgical products for women's health through early detection and treatment in the United States, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Diagnostics, Breast Health, GYN Surgical, and Skeletal Health. The company provides Aptima molecular diagnostic assays to detect the infectious microorganisms; Aptima viral load tests for HIV, Hepatitis C, and Hepatitis B; Aptima SARS-CoV-2 and Panther Fusion SARS-CoV-2 assays for the detection of SARS-CoV-2; ThinPrep System for use in cytology applications; Rapid Fetal Fibronectin Test that assists physicians in assessing the risk of pre-term birth; and various diagnostic tests for the detection of Group B Streptococcus. It also offers breast imaging and analytics, such as 2D and 3D digital mammography systems and reading workstations, minimally invasive breast biopsy guidance systems and devices, breast biopsy site markers and localization, specimen radiology, and ultrasound and connectivity solutions; and breast conserving surgery products. In addition, the company provides NovaSure Endometrial Ablation System for the treatment of abnormal uterine bleeding; MyoSure Hysteroscopic Tissue Removal System for the removal of fibroids, polyps, and other pathology within the uterus; and Fluent Fluid Management System that provides liquid distention during diagnostic and operative hysteroscopic procedures. Further, it offers Horizon DXA, a dual energy X-ray system; and the Fluoroscan Insight FD mini C-arm to perform minimally invasive orthopedic surgical procedures. The company sells its products through direct sales and service forces, and independent distributors and sales representatives. Hologic, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Marlborough, Massachusetts.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Hologic:
- Like the Johnson & Johnson of women's health, providing specialized diagnostics, imaging, and surgical solutions.
- A GE HealthCare or Siemens Healthineers specifically focused on women's health diagnostics and breast imaging.
- Imagine Abbott Laboratories but with a primary focus on women's health diagnostic tests and medical devices.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Aptima Molecular Diagnostic Assays: A range of tests used to detect infectious microorganisms, viral loads (HIV, Hepatitis C, B), and SARS-CoV-2.
- ThinPrep System: A system designed for cytology applications, primarily for cervical cancer screening.
- Rapid Fetal Fibronectin Test: A diagnostic test that assists physicians in assessing the risk of pre-term birth.
- Digital Mammography Systems: Includes 2D and 3D digital mammography systems and reading workstations for breast imaging.
- Breast Biopsy Systems: Minimally invasive breast biopsy guidance systems, devices, and related markers and localization solutions.
- NovaSure Endometrial Ablation System: A surgical product used for the treatment of abnormal uterine bleeding.
- MyoSure Hysteroscopic Tissue Removal System: A system for the removal of fibroids, polyps, and other pathology within the uterus.
- Fluent Fluid Management System: Provides liquid distention during diagnostic and operative hysteroscopic procedures.
- Horizon DXA System: A dual energy X-ray system for bone density measurements.
- Fluoroscan Insight FD mini C-arm: A mini C-arm used to perform minimally invasive orthopedic surgical procedures.
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Hologic (HOLX) sells its products primarily to other companies and institutions within the healthcare sector. Due to the fragmented nature of the global healthcare industry, Hologic's customer base consists of a vast number of hospitals, clinics, and laboratories worldwide. As such, Hologic does not typically identify specific major publicly traded customer companies with their stock symbols in its disclosures, as sales are distributed across numerous healthcare providers rather than concentrated in a few named entities.
Therefore, Hologic's major customers can be best described by the following categories of healthcare institutions:
- Hospitals and Hospital Systems: These institutions are significant purchasers of Hologic's medical imaging systems (such as mammography and DXA systems), surgical products (like the NovaSure and MyoSure systems), and various diagnostic equipment and assays. This category includes both large integrated health networks and individual hospitals.
- Diagnostic and Pathology Laboratories: These facilities utilize Hologic's molecular diagnostic assays (e.g., for infectious diseases, viral loads, and SARS-CoV-2) and cytology products (like the ThinPrep System) for screening, diagnosis, and monitoring.
- Specialized Clinics and Imaging Centers: This category encompasses a range of specialized facilities including women's health clinics, gynecologists' offices, breast imaging centers, orthopedic clinics, and ambulatory surgical centers, all of which deploy Hologic's targeted imaging, surgical, and diagnostic solutions.
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Stephen P. MacMillan, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer
Stephen P. MacMillan was appointed President and CEO of Hologic in December 2013 and elected Chairman in June 2015. Prior to joining Hologic, he served as the Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Stryker Corporation from 2005 to 2012, where he led the company through strategic acquisitions and product launches, tripling revenue. He joined Stryker in 2003 as President and Chief Operating Officer. Before his time at Stryker, he was a senior executive with Pharmacia Corporation, overseeing five global businesses, and spent 11 years with Johnson & Johnson in various senior roles, including as President of the joint venture between Johnson & Johnson and Merck. He began his career at Procter & Gamble.
Karleen Oberton, Chief Financial Officer
Karleen Oberton became Hologic's Chief Financial Officer in August 2018. She joined Hologic in 2006 as corporate controller, was promoted to Chief Accounting Officer in 2014, and joined the Global Leadership Team in 2017. Before joining Hologic, Ms. Oberton served as senior corporate controller of Immunogen from 2004 to 2006. Earlier in her career, she was a Senior Audit Manager in Ernst & Young's Life Science practice and in Arthur Andersen's High Technology practice. She was an active Certified Public Accountant for over 18 years. She also served as Director & Vice President at Cynosure LLC.
Essex Mitchell, Chief Operating Officer
Essex Mitchell was promoted to Chief Operating Officer in January 2024. He joined Hologic in 2017 as the Vice President of Sales and Commercial Excellence for the GYN Surgical Division and was promoted to Division President in 2020. Mr. Mitchell has nearly 20 years of medical device and pharmaceutical experience. From 2006 to 2017, he worked for Stryker Corporation, holding various commercial roles of increasing responsibility and leading sales and marketing in multiple divisions. Before Stryker, he held commercial roles with Merck and Abbott Laboratories.
Mark Horvath, President, Breast and Skeletal Health Solutions
Mark Horvath was promoted to President, Breast and Skeletal Health Solutions in January 2025. He joined Hologic in September 2020 as Vice President, Service Operations for the same division, and his responsibilities expanded to include Global Service Operations in August 2021. In September 2022, he was promoted to Corporate Vice President, Global Services. He is recognized for his leadership in global businesses, building high-performing teams, and driving strategic marketing, sales, commercial operations, and business model innovation.
Diana De Walt, Senior Vice President, Global Human Resources
Diana De Walt joined Hologic in August 2024. Prior to joining Hologic, Ms. De Walt consulted for several diagnostics and biotechnology companies. From 2015 to 2017, she served as Chief People Officer at Natera, Inc. Before that, she was Senior Vice President, Human Resources at Gen-Probe from 2005 until its acquisition by Hologic in 2012. Ms. De Walt also established The HR Company, where she and her team provided human resources leadership and support to more than 85 companies over 11 years.
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Key Risks to Hologic (HOLX)
- Regulatory and Legal Challenges: Hologic faces significant regulatory and legal risks, primarily stemming from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issuing Class I recalls for its BioZorb marker, a device used in breast cancer treatment. These recalls, initiated in March and updated in October 2024, are the most serious type, indicating that use of the device may cause serious injuries or death. The FDA has also threatened Hologic with possible punishment due to reported errors in the manufacturing of the BioZorb marker and has cited the company for not conforming with current good manufacturing practice requirements. Hundreds of lawsuits have been filed against Hologic by patients alleging serious complications such as pain, infection, device migration, and the need for additional surgeries due to the BioZorb marker. Furthermore, Hologic has announced potential difficulties in meeting its 2026 Contingent Value Right (CVR) milestone due to a halt in shipments of its Brevera Breast Biopsy System Disposable 9 Gauge Needles following an internal review that revealed post-market issues.
- Competitive Pressures and Challenges in Sustaining Revenue Growth: The company operates in a highly competitive industry, necessitating continuous innovation to maintain market share. Hologic has experienced a decline in revenue growth over the past three years, and its Breast Health product revenues decreased by 2.2%, attributed to longer sales cycles and the halt in shipments of the Brevera 9 Gauge Needles. Analysts anticipate revenue growth to slow to low-single digits, particularly in its Diagnostics and Breast Health segments, suggesting potential market saturation or increasing competition that could require price adjustments or significant investment in product enhancements to accelerate growth.
- Tariff-Related Issues: Hologic is subject to ongoing tariff-related challenges that are expected to persist into fiscal year 2026. These tariffs could negatively impact the company's cost structure, profitability, and competitive positioning in international markets. The uncertainty surrounding trade policies may also complicate long-term planning and investment decisions, potentially hindering Hologic's ability to effectively execute its growth strategies.
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The clear emerging threat to Hologic, Inc. is the advancement and potential widespread adoption of **liquid biopsies for cancer screening and early detection**. This technology, which involves analyzing circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) or other biomarkers in a blood sample, could fundamentally disrupt Hologic's Breast Health segment (mammography systems for breast cancer screening) and its Diagnostics segment (ThinPrep System for cervical cancer cytology). If a simple, highly accurate blood test becomes a primary method for early detection of breast, cervical, or other cancers, it could significantly reduce the demand for Hologic's established imaging and cytology-based screening products, much like streaming services disrupted physical media rental or smartphones disrupted traditional feature phones.
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Addressable Markets for Hologic (HOLX) Main Products and Services
Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) operates in several key women's health markets, encompassing diagnostics, breast health, gynecological surgical solutions, and skeletal health. The addressable market sizes for its primary products and services across various regions are detailed below.Diagnostics Segment
The global molecular diagnostics market, where Hologic's Aptima assays and ThinPrep System are prominent, was valued at approximately USD 27 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 40.4 billion by 2034, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2%. Another estimate indicates a global market size of USD 18.85 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 25.59 billion by 2033 with a CAGR of 4.06%. North America is a significant contributor to this market, holding the largest share of 44.06% in 2025. Within molecular diagnostics, infectious disease testing accounted for the highest market share, at 71.8% in 2024. The oncology testing segment, another area for Hologic's diagnostic products, was valued at USD 2.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 3.2 billion by 2034.Breast Health Segment
For its breast imaging and analytics products, including 2D and 3D digital mammography systems, the global Hologic mammography market was valued at USD 4.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 7.0 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 6.8%. Other estimates for the global Hologic mammography market indicate a size of USD 3.32 billion in 2025, with a projection to increase to approximately USD 8.82 billion by 2035 at a CAGR of 10.26%. North America dominated this global market in 2025. Specifically, the U.S. Hologic mammography market was valued at approximately USD 1.69 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 2.34 billion by 2030. The European Hologic mammography market stood at around USD 1.27 billion in 2024 and is projected to expand to approximately USD 1.63 billion by 2030.GYN Surgical Segment
Hologic's GYN Surgical products, such as the NovaSure Endometrial Ablation System and MyoSure Hysteroscopic Tissue Removal System, operate within the broader gynecological devices market. The global gynecological devices market was valued at USD 12.31 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 28.56 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 9.80%. Another report estimates the global market at USD 11.99 billion in 2025, expanding to USD 27.56 billion by 2035 with a CAGR of 8.68%. In the U.S., the gynecological devices market size was estimated at around USD 3.25 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 8.2%. More specifically, the global endometrial ablation market was estimated at USD 1.25 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1.70 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.2%. Another source states the global endometrial ablation device market size was USD 1.3 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 2.1 billion in 2034, with a CAGR of 5.4%. For hysteroscopic tissue removal, the global market size was estimated at USD 5.15 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 9.60 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 9.28%. The global hysteroscopy system market was valued at USD 1.6 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 3.3 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 7.7%. The broader global hysteroscopy procedures market was estimated at USD 14.7 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 21.6 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.8%.Skeletal Health Segment
For skeletal health products like the Horizon DXA system, the global bone densitometers market was valued at USD 253.0 million in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.4% from 2025 to 2030. Another report places the global bone densitometer market size at USD 262.6 million in 2025, projected to reach USD 374.4 million by 2034 with a CAGR of 4.0%. North America is the leading market for bone densitometers, accounting for 45.7% of the market share in 2024. In the mini C-arm market, which includes Hologic's Fluoroscan Insight FD mini C-arm, the global market size was approximately USD 1.2 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 2.1 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 6.1%. Another estimate suggests a global mini C-arm market size of USD 0.915 billion in 2023, expanding at a CAGR of 3.80% from 2023 to 2030. North America is the largest market for mini C-arms, holding approximately 45% of the global share. The broader global C-arms market (including both fixed and mobile systems) was valued at USD 2.12 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 3.19 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 4.65%.AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Hologic (HOLX)
Hologic (NASDAQ: HOLX) is anticipated to experience future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors across its diagnostics, breast health, GYN surgical, and skeletal health segments:
- Expansion and Adoption of Molecular Diagnostic Assays and Systems: Hologic expects continued revenue growth from its molecular diagnostics portfolio, particularly through strong sales of its BV/CV/TV and Panther Fusion assays. Further growth is anticipated from the launch and adoption of new diagnostic products, including the Genius Digital Diagnostics System, which incorporates AI and digital imaging for cervical cancer detection and has gained expanded CE marking in the EU. The recent FDA approval of the Aptima HPV Assay for clinician-collected HPV primary screening also contributes to the expanding Cervical Health Portfolio. Additionally, the Panther Fusion Gastrointestinal (GI) Bacterial and Expanded Bacterial Assays, having secured FDA 510(k) clearance and CE-IVDR marking, are expected to support menu diversification.
- Growth in the Breast Health Segment, Particularly Through Interventional Products and Recent Acquisitions: The Breast Health segment is poised for revenue growth, driven by an improved performance in its interventional breast health unit. This growth is significantly supported by strategic acquisitions, such as Endomagnetics, which contributed an incremental $54.9 million in product revenues in fiscal 2025. The increasing adoption of the Breast Cancer Index test is also expected to contribute positively to this segment's performance.
- Sustained Performance in GYN Surgical and Recovery/Growth in Skeletal Health: The GYN Surgical segment is expected to continue its contribution to revenue, bolstered by strong international sales and the performance of the acquired Gynesonics business. In the Skeletal Health division, revenue is projected to benefit from the resumed shipment of the Horizon DXA systems, which favorably contributes to the company's top line.
- Strategic Acquisitions: Beyond current portfolio growth, analysts identify strategic acquisitions as a potential upside driver for accelerating Hologic's revenue growth. These acquisitions are expected to enhance the company's product offerings and expand its market reach.
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Share Repurchases
- Hologic allocated approximately $3.6 billion to share repurchases in recent years, including $200 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2025.
- In the first quarter of fiscal 2025, the company repurchased 6.8 million shares for $517 million, which completed a previously announced $250 million accelerated share repurchase program.
- A share repurchase program announced on September 13, 2024, was completed, covering 7,996,191 shares for a total of $562.74 million.
Share Issuance
- Net proceeds from the issuance of common stock under employee stock plans were $12.2 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2025 and $9.5 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2024.
- The weighted average diluted common shares outstanding declined from 0.26 billion in 2021 to 0.228 billion in 2025, indicating a net reduction in shares over this period.
Inbound Investments
- On October 21, 2025, Hologic announced a definitive agreement to be acquired by funds managed by Blackstone and TPG in a transaction valued at up to $79 per share.
- The acquisition deal includes a non-tradable contingent value right (CVR) of up to $3 per share, contingent on achieving certain Breast Health global revenue goals in fiscal years 2026 and 2027.
- The transaction is anticipated to close in the first half of 2026, subject to customary approvals.
Outbound Investments
- Hologic allocated approximately $2 billion to mergers and acquisitions in recent years.
- On January 2, 2025, the company acquired Gynesonics, a medical device company, for approximately $350 million, thereby expanding its surgical portfolio.
- Other notable acquisitions include Biotheranostics in the Diagnostics division and Endomagnetics in Breast Health, both of which are expected to contribute to revenue growth.
Capital Expenditures
- Hologic's capital expenditures averaged $144.5 million annually for the fiscal years ending September 2021 to 2025.
- Capital expenditures for these fiscal years were $177.7 million in 2021, $127.2 million in 2022, $150.2 million in 2023, $130.2 million in 2024, and $137 million in 2025.
- The company's robust balance sheet and cash flow generation support ongoing strategic investments in women's health technologies.
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| 03272026 | CNC | Centene | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.3% | 2.3% | -0.6% |
| 03272026 | OSCR | Oscar Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.0% | 3.0% | -2.6% |
| 03202026 | WAT | Waters | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.4% | -0.4% | -3.3% |
| 03202026 | GILD | Gilead Sciences | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.2% |
| 04302025 | HOLX | Hologic | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.1% | 29.9% | -9.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 128.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 123.3 |
| Rev LTM | 30,026 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,650 |
| FCF LTM | 5,335 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,358 |
| CFO LTM | 6,850 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,886 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 123.3 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| P/EBIT | 18.7 |
| P/E | 26.3 |
| P/CFO | 17.1 |
| Total Yield | 6.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -61.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $76.01 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 17.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $75.29 | $71.27 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 1.0% | 6.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 2.6% | 25.0% |
| Downside Capture | -0.01 | 0.13 |
| Upside Capture | 8.85 | 39.71 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 10.1% | 27.5% |
HOLX Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Up Beta | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.07 | -0.10 | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| Down Beta | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.05 | 0.24 | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| Up Capture | 8% | 11% | 10% | 17% | 28% | 7% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 64 | 127 | 377 |
| Down Capture | -1% | 1% | 0% | -15% | 27% | 58% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 31 | 60 | 122 | 370 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HOLX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOLX | 27.4% | 24.9% | 0.93 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 2.8% | 17.6% | 0.00 | 32.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 19.0% | 0.64 | 24.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 49.6% | 28.0% | 1.44 | -11.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 15.5% | 17.7% | 0.74 | -5.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.1% | 16.5% | 0.01 | 30.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.0% | 44.0% | -0.35 | 10.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HOLX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOLX | 0.8% | 23.1% | -0.00 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.1% | 14.5% | 0.24 | 49.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.7% | 17.0% | 0.53 | 35.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.8% | 17.8% | 1.01 | 2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.8% | 0.50 | 1.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 36.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.0% | 56.5% | 0.27 | 14.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HOLX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOLX | 8.4% | 26.5% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.9% | 16.5% | 0.49 | 56.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 49.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.0% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 1.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 14.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 42.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 65.9% | 66.9% | 1.05 | 9.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/29/2026 | -0.1% | -0.4% | 0.6% |
| 11/3/2025 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| 7/30/2025 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| 5/1/2025 | -5.4% | -1.9% | 8.3% |
| 1/13/2025 | -2.0% | -2.7% | -10.1% |
| 11/4/2024 | -5.9% | -5.2% | -8.2% |
| 7/29/2024 | 3.6% | 3.4% | 0.1% |
| 5/2/2024 | 0.8% | -0.2% | -1.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.4% | -4.3% |
| Max Positive | 9.3% | 14.6% | 12.3% |
| Max Negative | -8.5% | -9.5% | -12.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 01/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/15/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/27/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stamoulis, Christiana | Direct | Sell | 10222025 | 73.07 | 7,402 | 540,864 | 3,458,842 | Form | |
| 2 | MacMillan, Stephen P | Chairman, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 9232025 | 66.97 | 138,358 | 9,266,118 | 82,685,292 | Form |
| 3 | Madaus, Martin D | Revocable Trust | Buy | 5092025 | 55.24 | 5,445 | 300,760 | 300,760 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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