Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

HOLX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate 11.8% stock movement for Hologic (HOLX) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Definitive Acquisition Agreement Announced.

Hologic's stock saw significant upward movement following the announcement on October 21, 2025, of a definitive agreement to be acquired by funds managed by Blackstone and TPG. The transaction was valued at up to $79 per share, including $76 per share in cash and a non-tradable contingent value right of up to $3 per share, representing a substantial premium to Hologic's prior trading price. Reports of renewed interest in a takeover by Blackstone and TPG had already driven the stock up by 7.7% on September 17, 2025, and 7.45% on October 18, 2025.

2. Strong Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat.

On November 3, 2025, Hologic reported robust financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter ended September 27, 2025. The company announced adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.13, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.10. Additionally, revenue reached $1.05 billion, exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $1.03 billion and representing a 6.2% increase year-over-year. This positive earnings report contributed to a 4.3% increase in HOLX shares in after-hours trading.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HOLX Return39%5%-2%-4%1%4%43%
Peers Return13%14%-9%-2%6%-1%20%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HOLX Win Rate75%58%50%50%42%70% 
Peers Win Rate48%44%38%40%35%35% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HOLX Max Drawdown-44%-17%-20%-13%-1%-27% 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-6%-21%-16%-7%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RMD, COO, HSIC, DAVI, EMI. See HOLX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventHOLXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-27.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven38.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven604 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-46.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven86.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven88 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven494 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-73.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven279.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven367 days1480 days

Compare to RMD, COO, HSIC, DAVI, EMI


In The Past

Hologic's stock fell -27.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/4/2021. A -27.7% loss requires a 38.3% gain to breakeven.

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About Hologic (HOLX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HOLX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
HOLX_4302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy04302025HOLXHologicDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
27.1%28.6%-9.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
HOLX_4302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy04302025HOLXHologicDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
27.1%28.6%-9.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Hologic

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HOLXRMDCOOHSICDAVIEMIMedian
NameHologic ResMed Cooper C.Henry Sc.Davion H.Encore M. 
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Growth & Margins

HOLXRMDCOOHSICDAVIEMIMedian
NameHologic ResMed Cooper C.Henry Sc.Davion H.Encore M. 
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Valuation

HOLXRMDCOOHSICDAVIEMIMedian
NameHologic ResMed Cooper C.Henry Sc.Davion H.Encore M. 
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Returns

HOLXRMDCOOHSICDAVIEMIMedian
NameHologic ResMed Cooper C.Henry Sc.Davion H.Encore M. 
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Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,885,730
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202514.7%
Average Daily Volume3,376,883
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.15
Basic Shares Quantity225,774,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025731202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024206202510-Q 12/28/2024
93020241127202410-K 9/28/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023202202410-Q 12/30/2023
93020231121202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023502202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022201202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221115202210-K 9/24/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/25/2022
3312022427202210-Q 3/26/2022
12312021202202210-Q 12/25/2021
93020211116202110-K 9/25/2021