How Will Diamondback Energy Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG) is set to report its earnings on Monday, November 3, 2025. The company has $42 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $14 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $5.3 Bil in operating profits and net income of $3.8 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach we take with the Trefis High Quality Portfolio. We go beyond just equities. Is a portfolio of 10% commodities, 10% gold, and 2% crypto in addition to equities and bonds likely to return more during the next 1-3 years, and protect you better if markets crash 20%? We have crunched the numbers.
Diamondback Energy’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 67% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 2.4%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -1.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2025 | -1.4% | -6.7% | -3.0% |
| 5/5/2025 | -0.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% |
| 2/24/2025 | -2.1% | -4.7% | 4.8% |
| 11/4/2024 | -2.3% | -0.4% | -4.4% |
| 8/5/2024 | 2.4% | 8.7% | 0.7% |
| 4/30/2024 | -2.5% | 1.3% | -0.9% |
| 2/12/2024 | 9.4% | 18.2% | 23.7% |
| 11/6/2023 | -0.8% | -1.2% | -6.6% |
| 7/31/2023 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 3.2% |
| 2/21/2023 | 2.3% | 4.7% | -2.7% |
| 11/7/2022 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -15.3% |
| 8/1/2022 | 1.3% | -2.2% | 9.0% |
| 2/22/2022 | 1.2% | 6.9% | 11.9% |
| 11/1/2021 | 2.5% | 3.7% | -7.3% |
| 8/2/2021 | 4.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% |
| 5/4/2021 | 4.9% | 0.8% | 9.8% |
| 2/22/2021 | 3.8% | 7.7% | 6.1% |
| 11/2/2020 | 1.5% | 16.9% | 47.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -2.2% | -4.4% |
| Max Positive | 9.4% | 18.2% | 47.9% |
| Max Negative | -2.5% | -6.7% | -15.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 5.9% | 13.4% | 42.4% |
| 3Y History | 45.1% | 35.8% | 8.3% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Diamondback Energy stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Diamondback Energy. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| FANG Earnings Dates | FANG | OKE |
| 11/4/2024 | -2.3% | 1.1% |
| 11/6/2023 | -0.8% | 1.7% |
| 11/7/2022 | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| CORRELATION | -99.7% |
Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock such as FANG, consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.