How Will Ford Motor Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Ford Motor (NYSE:F) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The company has $50 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $187 Bil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-9.2 Bil in operating losses and net income of $-8.2 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Ford Motor’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
- The percentage remains the same at 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 3.2%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -8.0%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/10/2026 | 2.1% | 3.2% | -10.3% |
| 10/23/2025 | 12.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% |
| 7/30/2025 | 1.8% | 3.1% | 9.2% |
| 5/5/2025 | 2.7% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| 2/5/2025 | -7.5% | -7.8% | 2.1% |
| 10/28/2024 | -8.4% | -8.9% | -1.0% |
| 7/24/2024 | -18.4% | -20.8% | -18.9% |
| 4/24/2024 | 0.7% | -5.8% | -5.4% |
| 2/6/2024 | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% |
| 10/26/2023 | -12.2% | -9.3% | -7.5% |
| 7/27/2023 | -3.4% | -4.6% | -13.3% |
| 5/2/2023 | -0.1% | 0.5% | 2.6% |
| 2/2/2023 | -7.6% | -5.8% | -3.7% |
| 10/26/2022 | 1.4% | 1.9% | 11.0% |
| 7/27/2022 | 6.1% | 19.0% | 22.0% |
| 4/27/2022 | -1.5% | 0.9% | -11.6% |
| 2/3/2022 | -9.7% | -9.1% | -19.7% |
| 10/27/2021 | 8.7% | 20.1% | 28.0% |
| 7/28/2021 | 3.8% | -3.9% | -6.9% |
| 4/28/2021 | -9.4% | -6.6% | 19.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 4.1% | 7.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.0% | -7.2% | -8.9% |
| Max Positive | 12.2% | 20.1% | 28.0% |
| Max Negative | -18.4% | -20.8% | -19.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 11.8% | -15.9% | -13.7% |
| 3Y History | -28.4% | -45.5% | -27.4% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Ford Motor stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Ford Motor. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| F Earnings Dates | F | TSLA |
| 10/23/2025 | 12.2% | 3.0% |
| 7/30/2025 | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| 10/28/2024 | -8.4% | 5.4% |
| 7/24/2024 | -18.4% | -6.6% |
| 4/24/2024 | 0.7% | -2.7% |
| 10/26/2023 | -12.2% | -18.2% |
| 7/27/2023 | -3.4% | -8.6% |
| 5/2/2023 | -0.1% | -17.7% |
| 10/26/2022 | 1.4% | -7.3% |
| 7/27/2022 | 6.1% | 17.9% |
| 4/27/2022 | -1.5% | -23.0% |
| 10/27/2021 | 8.7% | 32.8% |
| 7/28/2021 | 3.8% | -4.7% |
| CORRELATION | -47.4% |
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