Deere Stock To $419?

Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to sell DE stock. We have, overall, a pessimistic view of the stock, and a price of $419 may not be out of reach. We believe there are a few things to fear in DE stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. But keeping in mind its High valuation, we think that the stock is Unattractive.

Below is our assessment:

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Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $162 Bil in market cap, Deere provides manufacturing and distribution of equipment globally across agriculture, turf, construction, forestry sectors, and offers related financial services.

[1] Valuation Looks High

This table highlights how DE is valued vs broader market. For more details see: DE Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Weak

• Deere has seen its top line shrink at an average rate of -4.7% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have fallen -2.5% from $47 Bil to $46 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 13.1% to $9.3 Bil in the most recent quarter from $8.3 Bil a year ago.

This table highlights how DE is growing vs broader market. For more details see: DE Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Moderate

• DE last 12 month operating income was $8.2 Bil representing operating margin of 18.0%
• With cash flow margin of 16.8%, it generated nearly $7.7 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, DE generated nearly $4.8 Bil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 10.5%

This table highlights how DE profitability vs broader market. For more details see: DE Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Strong

• DE Debt was $63 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $162 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 38.9%
• DE Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $8.2 Bil of $103 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 7.9%

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Moderate

DE saw an impact slightly better than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• DE stock fell 34.1% from a high of $438.45 on 18 April 2022 to $289.14 on 6 July 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 25 November 2022
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $662.49 on 22 February 2026 , and currently trades at $599.48

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• DE stock fell 37.4% from a high of $177.60 on 9 January 2020 to $111.15 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 29 July 2020

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

• DE stock fell 73.8% from a high of $94.69 on 14 January 2008 to $24.83 on 2 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 11 February 2011

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read DE Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

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