How Will Chevron Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is set to report its earnings on Friday, May 1, 2026. The company has $383 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $184 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $17 Bil in operating profits and net income of $12 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Chevron’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 2.0%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -3.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/30/2026 | 3.3% | 4.7% | 11.8% |
| 10/31/2025 | 2.7% | -0.4% | -1.0% |
| 8/1/2025 | -0.2% | 1.0% | 7.1% |
| 5/2/2025 | 1.6% | 0.6% | 2.4% |
| 1/31/2025 | -4.6% | -2.8% | -1.0% |
| 11/1/2024 | 2.9% | 5.3% | 10.1% |
| 8/2/2024 | -2.7% | -5.3% | -2.0% |
| 4/26/2024 | 0.4% | -2.8% | -3.6% |
| 2/2/2024 | 2.9% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| 10/27/2023 | -6.7% | -3.9% | -5.7% |
| 7/24/2023 | 2.0% | 0.1% | 2.0% |
| 4/28/2023 | 1.0% | -6.4% | -6.8% |
| 1/27/2023 | -4.4% | -10.0% | -12.5% |
| 10/28/2022 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| 7/29/2022 | 8.9% | 0.5% | 9.6% |
| 4/29/2022 | -3.2% | 2.8% | 11.1% |
| 1/28/2022 | -3.5% | -0.9% | 7.5% |
| 10/29/2021 | 1.2% | 0.3% | 2.7% |
| 7/30/2021 | -0.7% | -1.3% | -2.5% |
| 4/30/2021 | -3.6% | 2.0% | -1.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 1.8% | 7.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -2.8% | -2.5% |
| Max Positive | 8.9% | 5.3% | 11.8% |
| Max Negative | -6.7% | -10.0% | -12.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -40.9% | -10.7% | 20.1% |
| 3Y History | -15.8% | 6.9% | 43.7% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Chevron stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Chevron. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| CVX Earnings Dates | CVX | PSX |
| 10/31/2025 | 2.7% | -1.3% |
| 8/1/2025 | -0.2% | -4.3% |
| 5/2/2025 | 1.6% | 3.1% |
| 11/1/2024 | 2.9% | -2.6% |
| 8/2/2024 | -2.7% | -9.1% |
| CORRELATION | -60.8% |
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