How Will CoreWeave Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 7, 2026. The company has $65 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $5.1 Bil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-46 Mil in operating losses and net income of $-1.2 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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CoreWeave’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 4 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 0 positive and 4 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 0.0% of the time.
- The percentage remains the same at 0.0% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 0 positive returns = null, and median of the 4 negative returns = -17%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/26/2026 | -18.5% | -23.4% | -23.4% |
| 11/10/2025 | -16.3% | -28.7% | -17.3% |
| 8/12/2025 | -20.8% | -37.6% | -24.2% |
| 5/14/2025 | -2.5% | 59.2% | 118.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| # Negative | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 59.2% | 118.2% | |
| Median Negative | -17.4% | -28.7% | -23.4% |
| Max Positive | 59.2% | 118.2% | |
| Max Negative | -20.8% | -37.6% | -24.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 98.0% | 96.6% | 78.8% |
| 3Y History | 98.0% | 96.6% | 78.8% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of CoreWeave stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before CoreWeave. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWV Earnings Dates | CRWV | AMZN | MSFT | GOOGL |
| 2/26/2026 | -18.5% | -6.6% | -16.4% | -7.7% |
| 11/10/2025 | -16.3% | 11.5% | -6.6% | 5.7% |
| 8/12/2025 | -20.8% | -5.4% | 3.1% | 6.9% |
| 5/14/2025 | -2.5% | 10.5% | 14.6% | 3.8% |
| CORRELATION | 57.0% | 58.9% | 55.8% | |
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