CoreWeave (CRWV)
Market Price (5/18/2026): $106.8 | Market Cap: $56.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
CoreWeave (CRWV)
Market Price (5/18/2026): $106.8Market Cap: $56.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 130% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 96%, CFO LTM is 6.0 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS). | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -163 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.6% Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -170% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 106% Key risksCRWV key risks include [1] a precarious financial position due to high leverage and capital-intensive expansion, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 130% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 96%, CFO LTM is 6.0 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS). |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -163 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.6% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -170% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 106% |
| Key risksCRWV key risks include [1] a precarious financial position due to high leverage and capital-intensive expansion, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Significant New AI Cloud Contracts and Record Backlog Growth. CoreWeave secured major multi-year agreements, including an expanded $21 billion deal with Meta Platforms announced on April 9, 2026, bringing their total partnership to $35 billion through December 2032. Additionally, Jane Street signed a $6 billion AI cloud agreement with CoreWeave in April 2026, which included a $1 billion equity investment. These new commitments contributed to a revenue backlog of nearly $100 billion as of March 31, 2026, providing substantial long-term revenue visibility.
2. Strong Q1 2026 Financial Performance Exceeding Revenue Expectations. CoreWeave reported Q1 2026 revenue of $2.08 billion, marking a 111.6% year-over-year increase and surpassing the Wall Street consensus of $1.97 billion. This robust top-line growth demonstrated strong demand for its AI cloud infrastructure services.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.1% change in CRWV stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 44.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 93.19 | 107.30 | 15.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,306 | 6,227 | 44.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 10.8 | 9.1 | -15.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 498 | 527 | -5.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRWV | 15.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.1% | 49.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 22.7% | 54.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.8% change in CRWV stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/17/2026 was primarily driven by a -23.4% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 133.71 | 107.30 | -19.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 6,227 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | 9.1 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 404 | 527 | -23.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRWV | -19.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.0% | 46.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 17.6% | 56.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 159.8% change in CRWV stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 225.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 41.30 | 107.30 | 159.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,915 | 6,227 | 225.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 10.0 | 9.1 | -9.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 464 | 527 | -11.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 159.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRWV | 159.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 34.8% | 35.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 68.8% | 44.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRWV | ||
| Market (SPY) | 84.7% | 37.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 138.6% | 44.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CRWV Return | - | - | - | - | 79% | 59% | 186% |
| Peers Return | 57% | -34% | 93% | 65% | 29% | 11% | 370% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CRWV Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 40% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 30% | 70% | 67% | 55% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CRWV Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -45% | -18% | -20% | -33% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA, ORCL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
CRWV has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -17.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 92 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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CRWV has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 105 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 797 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About CoreWeave (CRWV)
AI Analysis | Feedback
CoreWeave is like:
- AWS or Microsoft Azure, but purpose-built and highly optimized solely for AI workloads.
- A specialized, AI-dedicated version of a major cloud provider, such as Google Cloud, focused on delivering high-performance computing power for artificial intelligence.
AI Analysis | Feedback
* **AI Cloud Platform:** A comprehensive, purpose-built cloud platform offering integrated infrastructure and software services optimized for AI development, training, and inference. * **AI Infrastructure Services:** Provides state-of-the-art compute (GPUs), networking, and storage specifically engineered for high-performance AI workloads. * **AI Managed Software Services:** Offers tools for orchestrating, automating, and managing complex AI workloads and environments. * **AI Application Software Services:** Supports the deployment and delivery of advanced AI models and applications for various use cases. * **Mission Control and Observability Software:** Integrated monitoring and management tools that ensure optimal performance and reliability for AI training and inference.AI Analysis | Feedback
CoreWeave (CRWV) sells primarily to other companies. Its major customers include:AI Analysis | Feedback
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Michael Intrator, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Board, and Co-founder
Michael Intrator is a co-founder of CoreWeave, established in 2017. He has served as the company's CEO and President since September 2017, and as Chairman of the board of directors. Prior to CoreWeave, he co-founded and was the Chief Executive Officer of Hudson Ridge Asset Management LLC, a natural gas hedge fund, from January 2013 to January 2018. He also held roles of increasing responsibility, including Principal Portfolio Manager, at Natsource Asset Management LLC, an asset management and advisory firm, from September 1998 to July 2014.
Nitin Agrawal, Chief Financial Officer
Nitin Agrawal joined CoreWeave as Chief Financial Officer in March 2024. Before his tenure at CoreWeave, he served as Vice President, Finance of Google Cloud, a segment of Alphabet Inc., from May 2021 to March 2024. His experience also includes serving as Chief Financial Officer of Mapbox, Inc. from August 2019 to April 2021, and as Finance Director of the Compute Services division at Amazon Web Services, Inc. from January 2015 to July 2019. Mr. Agrawal also held leadership roles at Microsoft.
Brannin McBee, Chief Development Officer, Co-founder
Brannin McBee is a co-founder of CoreWeave. He served as Chief Strategy Officer from September 2017 until March 2024, when he transitioned to Chief Development Officer. His previous experience includes working as a Proprietary Trader at Active Power Investments and Windy Bay Power LLC, a commodity-focused hedge fund. He was also a Vice President at Fourth Floor Coastal LLC, an exploration and production company in the oil and gas industry.
Brian Venturo, Chief Strategy Officer, Co-founder
Brian Venturo is a co-founder of CoreWeave. He served as Chief Technology Officer from October 2017 to March 2024, at which point he was appointed Chief Strategy Officer. Previously, from January 2013 to January 2018, Mr. Venturo was a Partner at Hudson Ridge Asset Management LLC, a natural gas hedge fund. He also worked as Portfolio Manager – Energy and Emissions for Natsource Asset Management LLC.
Sachin Jain, Chief Operating Officer
Sachin Jain assumed the role of Chief Operating Officer at CoreWeave in August 2024. Prior to CoreWeave, he served as Senior Vice President at Oracle Cloud from May 2024 to August 2024, where he was responsible for AI infrastructure, data center capacity, and infrastructure product teams. Before that, he was Vice President at Google Cloud from June 2020 to May 2024. Mr. Jain brings over two decades of experience in senior leadership positions at Google Cloud and Amazon.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to CoreWeave's business include:
- Customer Concentration Risk: CoreWeave relies heavily on a few large customers for a significant portion of its revenue. Microsoft has been its largest customer, and with the recently signed Master Services Agreement with OpenAI, these two entities will collectively account for a substantial part of CoreWeave's future committed contract revenues. A loss or significant reduction in business from one or both of these key customers could materially impact the company's financial performance.
- Technological Obsolescence and Intense Competition: CoreWeave operates in the rapidly evolving and "hyper-competitive" artificial intelligence (AI) industry, where the demand for specialized cloud infrastructure is constantly changing. The risk exists that CoreWeave's purpose-built AI cloud platform, or the underlying technology it uses, could become obsolete or less competitive if new technologies emerge or if larger, more diversified cloud providers develop equally or more advanced AI-specific offerings, challenging CoreWeave's specialized niche and competitive advantage.
- Reliance on Debt Financing for Expansion: CoreWeave employs a "sophisticated financing strategy" heavily reliant on asset-backed debt, having raised $12.9 billion in debt commitments to fund its rapid expansion of compute capacity. This significant reliance on debt for infrastructure development exposes the company to financial risks, including potential difficulties in servicing the debt if market conditions change, demand for its services slows, or if the costs of financing increase.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The primary emerging threat to CoreWeave stems from the potential for established, "generalized cloud infrastructure" providers (such as Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud Platform, and Microsoft Azure, despite Microsoft being a customer) to rapidly enhance and optimize their AI offerings. CoreWeave explicitly states that these generalized platforms were "built to host websites, databases, and SaaS apps that have fundamentally different needs than the high performance requirements of AI." CoreWeave's core competitive advantage is its "purpose-built AI cloud platform" which delivers "substantially higher total system performance and more favorable uptime relative to other AI offerings within existing infrastructure cloud environments." The emerging threat is that these major cloud hyperscalers, with their immense resources and existing customer bases, will significantly improve their AI-specific infrastructure and services to match or even surpass CoreWeave's performance and efficiency advantages, thereby eroding CoreWeave's key differentiation and "first-to-market track record with highly performant technology" in the rapidly evolving AI cloud market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
CoreWeave operates in a significant and rapidly expanding market. Total global spending on AI inference/fine-tuning, AI workload monitoring, and training infrastructure, which includes AI servers, AI storage, training compute, cloud workloads, and networking, is projected to reach approximately $399 billion by 2028.AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for CoreWeave (CRWV)
CoreWeave (CRWV) is positioned for significant revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors stemming from its specialized focus on AI cloud infrastructure. The primary drivers include:- Explosive Growth in the Overall AI Market and Demand for Purpose-Built AI Infrastructure: CoreWeave anticipates benefiting from the massive expansion of the AI market, with projections indicating a cumulative global economic impact of $20 trillion by 2030 and total spending on AI infrastructure reaching approximately $399 billion by 2028. The company is strategically positioned as an "AI Hyperscaler" with a purpose-built platform to meet the high-performance demands of AI workloads, which differ significantly from general cloud infrastructure needs.
- Significant Expansion of Data Center Footprint and GPU Capacity: CoreWeave has a robust plan to scale its physical infrastructure. As of December 31, 2024, the company had 32 data centers running over 250,000 GPUs and 360 MW of active power. More importantly, its total contracted power extends to approximately 1.3 GW, which it expects to roll out over the coming years, enabling a substantial increase in its compute capacity to meet growing customer demand.
- Deepening and Expansion of Relationships with Leading AI Labs and Enterprises: CoreWeave fosters long-term, durable relationships with major AI industry players, including Microsoft and OpenAI. The company has a proven track record of existing customers expanding their commitments; for instance, three of its top five committed contract customers significantly increased their spend by approximately $7.8 billion within 12 months of their initial agreements. A recently signed Master Services Agreement with OpenAI is expected to generate up to an additional $11.55 billion in future revenue, further solidifying growth from key customer partnerships.
- Growth in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) from Multi-Year Committed Contracts: CoreWeave's revenue model is heavily reliant on multi-year committed contracts, which provide predictable future income. The company reported a substantial increase in its remaining performance obligations (RPO) by 53%, from $9.9 billion as of December 31, 2023, to $15.1 billion as of December 31, 2024. This growing backlog of committed contracts, combined with new agreements, directly translates into secured future revenue streams.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- CoreWeave launched its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on March 28, 2025, raising approximately $1.5 billion by issuing 37.5 million Class A shares at $40.00 per share.
- NVIDIA invested $2 billion in CoreWeave Class A common stock at a price of $87.20 per share in January 2026.
- OpenAI agreed to invest $350 million in CoreWeave through the purchase of company stock as part of a larger $11.9 billion infrastructure deal.
Inbound Investments
- CoreWeave raised over $18 billion in debt and equity from more than 200 investment partners and financial institutions during 2025, with total debt reaching $21.4 billion by year-end 2025.
- The company's financing activities in 2025 included a $2 billion high-yield debt offering (upsized by $500 million), a separate $1.75 billion issuance, and a $2.6 billion delayed draw term loan facility.
- Through December 31, 2024, CoreWeave had raised total commitments of $12.9 billion in asset-backed debt to support the development of its platform.
Outbound Investments
- In September 2025, CoreWeave launched CoreWeave Ventures, a corporate venture capital arm, to invest in early-stage artificial intelligence and computing technology companies.
- The company has made 7 investments across sectors such as Artificial Intelligence and AI Infrastructure, with notable investments including NinetyFive, Salt AI, Chai Research, Wombo, and Moonvalley.
- CoreWeave acquired OpenPipe, a startup focused on building reinforcement-learning tools for AI agents, in September 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- CoreWeave's capital expenditures were approximately $14.9 billion in fiscal 2025.
- The company has budgeted significantly higher capital expenditures of $30 billion to $35 billion for 2026, more than double 2025 levels.
- These expenditures are primarily focused on accelerating data center buildouts, purchasing AI chips (such as NVIDIA GPUs), and expanding power capacity to meet the relentless demand for AI computing.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ADSK | Autodesk | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BSY | Bentley Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BL | BlackLine | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.2% | 3.2% | -3.0% |
| 01022026 | CRWV | CoreWeave | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 40.7% | 40.7% | -12.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 244.73 |
| Mkt Cap | 2,985.4 |
| Rev LTM | 267,106 |
| Op Inc LTM | 107,904 |
| FCF LTM | 30,978 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 61,517 |
| CFO LTM | 125,624 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 120,527 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 17.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 18.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 24.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 32.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 31.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 44.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2,985.4 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 30.0 |
| P/EBIT | 24.3 |
| P/E | 30.6 |
| P/CFO | 21.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 22.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 31.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 145.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 13.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 16.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 74.9% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $107.30 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 54.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/28/2025 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -41.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $77.26 | $57.75 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 38.9% | 85.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 93.0% | 104.4% |
| Downside Capture | 286.33 | 313.14 |
| Upside Capture | 241.24 | 264.20 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 42.2% | 32.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.39 | 2.80 | 3.39 | 3.56 | 3.08 | -0.07 |
| Up Beta | 2.36 | 2.72 | 4.23 | 3.59 | 3.99 | -0.25 |
| Down Beta | 19.40 | 4.14 | 2.21 | 3.33 | 1.89 | -0.19 |
| Up Capture | 374% | 397% | 438% | 512% | 1012% | 210% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 26 | 36 | 60 | 126 | 136 |
| Down Capture | -361% | 167% | 273% | 251% | 183% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 17 | 28 | 65 | 125 | 136 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CRWV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWV | 51.4% | 106.5% | 0.87 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 51.7% | 20.5% | 1.93 | 42.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 27.4% | 12.1% | 1.71 | 33.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.5% | 26.8% | 1.30 | 11.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.4% | 18.5% | 1.88 | 1.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.5% | 13.5% | 0.56 | 2.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 41.8% | -0.54 | 33.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CRWV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWV | 20.6% | 116.1% | 1.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.0% | 24.8% | 0.78 | 44.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 37.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.4% | 17.9% | 0.88 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.4% | 0.45 | 10.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.8% | 0.06 | 14.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.2% | 55.9% | 0.34 | 33.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CRWV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWV | 9.8% | 116.1% | 1.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 25.0% | 24.4% | 0.92 | 44.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 37.9% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -11.4% | -11.4% | |
| 2/26/2026 | -18.5% | -23.4% | -23.4% |
| 11/10/2025 | -16.3% | -28.7% | -17.3% |
| 8/12/2025 | -20.8% | -37.6% | -24.2% |
| 5/14/2025 | -2.5% | 59.2% | 118.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| # Negative | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 59.2% | 118.2% | |
| Median Negative | -16.3% | -26.0% | -23.4% |
| Max Positive | 59.2% | 118.2% | |
| Max Negative | -20.8% | -37.6% | -24.2% |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Intrator, Michael N | CEO and President | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 105.67 | 200,000 | 21,133,902 | 471,972,967 | Form |
| 2 | Intrator, Michael N | CEO and President | Omnadora Capital LLC | Sell | 5142026 | 105.67 | 107,693 | Form | ||
| 3 | Jain, Sachin | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 118.61 | 14,750 | 1,749,560 | 14,596,432 | Form |
| 4 | Magnetar, Financial Llc | Footnotes | Sell | 5082026 | 129.91 | 159,168 | 20,677,149 | 87,621,445 | Form | |
| 5 | Magnetar, Financial Llc | Footnotes | Sell | 5082026 | 129.91 | 587,010 | 76,257,073 | 31,489,088 | Form |
CRWV Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
CoreWeave represents a rare, pure-play investment in the AI infrastructure buildout with an unparalleled revenue backlog that provides extreme growth visibility. The company's moat in high-performance computing is widening. However, the current valuation appears to fully price in a flawless operational execution, offering a poor risk/reward skew. The significant execution risk associated with its massive capex plan and recent insider selling warrant caution, making it a Market Weight position despite the compelling long-term story.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Primary: High-Beta Compounder (70%), Secondary: Secular Cyclical (30%)The company exhibits hyper-growth characteristics (backlog, revenue) fitting a 'High-Beta Compounder'. However, its business model is entirely dependent on massive, front-loaded capital expenditures and servicing a few large customers' capex cycles, which introduces a strong 'Secular Cyclical' element to the thesis.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The investment thesis centers on CoreWeave's ability to convert its massive and rapidly growing $99.4 billion revenue backlog into recognized revenue by executing its large-scale data center buildout. This backlog, secured with foundational AI players, provides extreme long-term revenue visibility and de-risks the growth narrative, shifting the company's profile from a speculative high-growth name to a critical infrastructure provider for the AI supercycle.
- Revenue backlog swelled from $66.8B at the end of FY2025 to $99.4B by the end of Q1 2026.
- Secured multi-year, multi-billion dollar commitments from foundational AI customers including Microsoft, Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic.
- Capital expenditure guidance of $31-$35 billion for FY2026 indicates the scale of the build-out to meet contracted demand.
- Total contracted power, a leading indicator for data center capacity, exceeds 3.5 GW as of Q1 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is the immense operational challenge of deploying $31-$35 billion in capital in a single year to build out sufficient data center capacity. Failure to execute on time and on budget due to supply constraints, rising component costs, or construction delays could postpone revenue recognition, strain a leveraged balance sheet, and break the hyper-growth narrative currently supporting the stock's premium valuation.
- Q2 2026 revenue guidance midpoint of $2.53B missed consensus estimates of $2.69B, a potential early sign of execution friction.
- FY2026 capital expenditure guidance was increased from a $30B floor to a $31B floor, citing higher component costs.
- Aggressive insider selling by multiple co-founders and executives, totaling over $1 billion in early 2026, raises questions about leadership's conviction in the long-term execution plan.
- Extreme customer concentration (67% of FY2025 revenue from Microsoft) makes any delays or renegotiations with this key partner a critical threat.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Backlog | >$20B sequential growth per quarter | This is the primary leading indicator of future growth and market share capture. Continued acceleration validates the thesis that CoreWeave is the preferred provider for large-scale AI workloads. |
| Capital Expenditure vs. Guidance | Stays within the $31B - $35B range | Demonstrates operational control and cost discipline. A significant increase beyond the guided range would signal execution problems and pressure the balance sheet, triggering the Anti-Alpha thesis. |
| Quarterly Revenue vs. Guidance | Meeting or exceeding consensus estimates | After the Q2 '26 guidance miss, the market is highly sensitive to the company's ability to forecast and convert backlog into recognized revenue. Consistent beats are required to maintain confidence. |
The Execution Gauntlet: Translating a $99.4B Backlog into Profitable Growth
BULL VIEW
The massive, de-risked backlog from AI titans provides unprecedented revenue visibility, making near-term execution hurdles and cash burn a necessary investment for market dominance.
CORE TENSION
Can CoreWeave operationally deliver on its massive backlog and capex plan without fatal delays or cost overruns, justifying its premium valuation?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Q2 2026 revenue guidance of $2.53B missed consensus of $2.69B, while FY26 capex floor was raised by $1B, suggesting costs are rising faster than near-term revenue can be realized.
BEAR VIEW
The Q2 guidance miss, rising capex, and heavy insider selling are early warnings of execution failure. The company will burn cash faster than it recognizes revenue, breaking the growth story.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Early August 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Quarterly Revenue vs. Guidance. Must meet or beat the $2.45B-$2.6B range after the prior Q1 miss. Also watch for any further increase to the $31B-$35B Capex plan. |
Early November 2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Sequential Revenue Backlog Growth. Watch for growth >$15B from Q2's figure to show continued commercial momentum beyond the initial large deals. |
Late July 2026 | Anchor Customer Earnings Call (Microsoft) Watch: Commentary on AI Capex ROI and efficiency. Any mention of 'optimizing' GPU spend or 'digesting' recent investments is a direct threat. |
Next 3-6 Months | Competitor Architectural Update (Meta/AMD) Watch: Specific timeline from Meta on deploying its custom AMD Instinct GPUs. A concrete date for transitioning internal workloads away from third-party clouds. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Dec 15, 2025 | Termination of Core Scientific Merger Details: The company terminated a planned merger with data center provider Core Scientific, creating uncertainty around its infrastructure expansion plans. The stock plummeted -7.9% on the news. | -7.94% $78.59 -> $72.35 |
Jan 12, 2026 | NVIDIA Partnership Expansion Details: NVIDIA announced a new $2B equity investment to help CoreWeave build out large-scale AI data centers, signaling strong partner confidence. The stock surged 12.2% on the news. | 12.22% $80.14 -> $89.93 |
Feb 26, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Report Details: Company reported FY2025 revenue of $5.1B and a year-end backlog of $66.8B. The stock reaction was muted (-0.4%) as the market awaited future guidance. | -0.39% $98.01 -> $97.63 |
Mar 5, 2026 | New Partnership with Meta Details: Details of expanded multi-billion dollar commitment from Meta emerged. Despite the positive news, the stock crashed -5.9% amid broader market weakness and concerns about customer concentration. | -5.89% $79.50 -> $74.82 |
Apr 1, 2026 | Insider Selling Disclosures Details: Filings revealed over $1B in collective stock sales by CEO Michael Intrator and co-founders Brian Venturo and Brannin McBee in early 2026. Stock saw a modest 1.3% gain, suggesting the market was focused elsewhere. | 1.25% $77.47 -> $78.44 |
May 7, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Details: Reported Q1 revenue of $2.08B and backlog surging to $99.4B. However, stock plummeted -6.6% as Q2 revenue guidance midpoint ($2.53B) missed consensus ($2.69B) and capex guidance increased. | -6.62% $137.98 -> $128.84 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (7.6x S&P). While fundamentals are strong (widening moat, high visibility), the Neutral sentiment and extreme valuation force a cap on sizing to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
IREN
INDUSTRYUnlike CRWV's concentrated customer base, IREN just signed a massive $3.4B deal directly with NVIDIA, diversifying its revenue and validating its operational capabilities at scale.
ANET
SECTORProfitable, established market leader in data center networking. Offers exposure to the same AI infrastructure buildout with a much lower-risk financial profile compared to CRWV's cash burn.
CoreWeave is rapidly transitioning from a niche GPU rental service to a foundational, large-scale AI infrastructure provider, driven by a massive $99.4 billion revenue backlog from major AI players and hyperscalers.
Filter all news through the lens of backlog conversion: is the company building data center capacity fast enough to turn its massive order book into recognized revenue?
New multi-billion dollar, multi-year contracts with top-tier AI labs (e.g., Meta, Anthropic, OpenAI); securing new large-scale power contracts (>400 MW); accelerated data center build-out announcements; securing additional investment-grade debt to fund capex.
Slowdown in data center construction; delays in securing power; rising component costs or interest rates that threaten capex plans; evidence that major customers like Microsoft are successfully building their own equivalent capacity, reducing reliance on CoreWeave.
Quarterly fluctuations in on-demand GPU pricing; short-term stock volatility related to IPO lock-up expirations; benchmark wins or losses against smaller specialized cloud competitors.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the market's recognition of CoreWeave's ~$99.4 billion revenue backlog (as of March 31, 2026), which provides extreme long-term revenue visibility. This backlog, composed of multi-year contracts with customers like Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Anthropic, shifts the valuation narrative from a high-growth tech company to a critical infrastructure provider with utility-like demand certainty.
Specialized GPU Cloud Infrastructure
$8.3B TTM (100% of Total) · 85% MarginWhat It Is
Cloud access to large-scale clusters of the latest NVIDIA GPUs (e.g., H100, B200, next-gen Rubin) optimized for AI/ML workloads, delivered via bare-metal servers with Kubernetes-native orchestration and high-performance InfiniBand networking.
Who Pays & How
Hyperscalers and AI labs like Microsoft (~67% of FY2025 revenue), Meta (up to ~$35.2B total commitment), OpenAI (~$22.4B total commitment), Anthropic, Mistral AI, and Jane Street pay for guaranteed access to massive GPU capacity which is scarce and purpose-built for AI workloads, providing better performance-per-dollar than general-purpose clouds.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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