Costco Wholesale vs Dollar Tree: Which Stock Could Rally?
Costco Wholesale surged 16% during the past Month. You may be tempted to buy more, or may want to reduce your exposure. But there is an entirely different perspective you might be missing. Is there a better alternative? Turns out, its peer Dollar Tree gives you more. Dollar Tree (DLTR) stock offers superior revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and relatively lower valuation vs Costco Wholesale (COST) stock, suggesting you may be better off investing in DLTR
- DLTR’s quarterly revenue growth was 9.4%, vs. COST’s 8.3%.
- In addition, its Last 12 Months revenue growth came in at 156.4%, ahead of COST’s 8.3%.
- DLTR leads on profitability over both periods – LTM margin of 7.9% and 3-year average of 13.2%.
These differences become even clearer when you look at the financials side by side. The table highlights how COST’s fundamentals stack up against those of DLTR on growth, margins, momentum, and valuation multiples.
Valuation & Performance Overview
| COST | DLTR | Preferred | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | |||
| P/EBIT Ratio | 41.0 | 17.6 | DLTR |
| Revenue Growth | |||
| Last Quarter | 8.3% | 9.4% | DLTR |
| Last 12 Months | 8.3% | 156.4% | DLTR |
| Last 3 Year Average | 6.7% | 20.3% | DLTR |
| Operating Margins | |||
| Last 12 Months | 3.8% | 7.9% | DLTR |
| Last 3 Year Average | 3.6% | 13.2% | DLTR |
| Momentum | |||
| Last 3 Year Return | 108.0% | -14.6% | COST |
Note: For “Last 3 Year Return” metric, preferred stock is one with higher returns unless the returns are too high (>300%) which creates risk of sell off.
See more revenue details: COST Revenue Comparison | DLTR Revenue Comparison
See more margin details: COST Operating Income Comparison | DLTR Operating Income Comparison
See detailed fundamentals on Buy or Sell DLTR Stock and Buy or Sell COST Stock. Below we compare market return and related metrics across years.
Historical Market Performance
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | Avg | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||||
| COST Return | 52% | -19% | 49% | 40% | -5% | 13% | 174% | <=== | |
| DLTR Return | 30% | 1% | 0% | -47% | 64% | 3% | 17% | ||
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 84% | ||
| Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||||
| COST Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 100% | 67% | ||
| DLTR Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 58% | 25% | 67% | 100% | 61% | ||
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | 71% | <=== | |
| Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||||
| COST Max Drawdown | -17% | -26% | -1% | -2% | -7% | -1% | -9% | ||
| DLTR Max Drawdown | -22% | -10% | -27% | -57% | -17% | 0% | -22% | ||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | -7% | <=== | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/23/2026 (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
No matter how good the numbers, stock investment is never a smooth ride. There is a risk you must factor in. Read DLTR Dip Buyer Analyses and COST Dip Buyer Analyses to see how these stocks have fallen and recovered in the past.
Still not sure about COST or DLTR? Consider portfolio approach.
Why Stock Pickers Win More With Multi Asset Portfolios
Single markets are unpredictable but different assets react differently. A multi asset portfolio cuts downside shocks while keeping upside on the table.
The asset allocation framework of Trefis’ Boston-based, wealth management partner yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Our partner’ strategy now includes Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices