CLF Stock Falls -26% In 9-Day Spree On Revenue Miss & Analyst Downgrades
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) – a North American flat-rolled steel and tubular components producer – hit a 9-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to -26%. The company’s market cap has crashed by about $1.6 Bil over the last 9 days and currently stands at $4.6 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 36.3% compared to -1% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] Q4 2025 Earnings Report and Negative Analyst Revisions
- Cleveland-Cliffs Stock: Can 2026 Mark a Turnaround Year?
- With Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk?
- Why Has Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Dropped 25%?
- How Will Cleveland-Cliffs Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
- Buy Or Fear Cleveland-Cliffs Stock?
- Why is Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Up 50% In A Month?
- Q4 revenue missed analyst consensus estimates
- Downward trend in earnings estimates post-release
- Impact: Sustained Institutional Selling, Technical Breakdown Below Key Levels
[2] Broad Steel Sector Headwinds
- Concerns of a global economic slowdown impacting steel demand
- Rising production costs squeezing profit margins
- Impact: Increased investor concern over profitability, Negative sentiment across the steel industry
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is a lot to fear in CLF stock given its overall Very Weak operating performance and financial condition. Hence, despite its Very Low valuation, we think that the stock is Unattractive (For details, see Buy or Sell CLF).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -26% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for CLF stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | CLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -5.2% | 0.0% |
| 9D (Current Streak) | -25.8% | -1.5% |
| 1M (21D) | -32.2% | -2.4% |
| 3M (63D) | -33.4% | -1.6% |
| YTD 2026 | -36.3% | -1.0% |
| 2025 | 41.3% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | -54.0% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 26.8% | 24.2% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: CLF Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 21.0 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 121 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 21 | 44 |
| 4D | 0 | 30 |
| 5D | 0 | 16 |
| 6D | 0 | 9 |
| 7D or more | 0 | 22 |
| Total >=3 D | 21 | 121 |
Key Financials for Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $19.2 Bil | $18.6 Bil |
| Operating Income | $-511.0 Mil | $-1.5 Bil |
| Net Income | $-760.0 Mil | $-1.5 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ3 | 2025 FQ4 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $4.7 Bil | $4.3 Bil |
| Operating Income | $-201.0 Mil | $-337.0 Mil |
| Net Income | $-251.0 Mil | $-243.0 Mil |
The losing streak CLF stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.