Are You Sure You Understand Amphenol Stock’s Risk?
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Third-quarter sales for fiscal 2026 reached $10.2 billion at Amphenol (APH), climbing 65% from a year earlier. Sales grew 37% without acquisitions. Over the past year, the stock returned 15.6%, compared with 11.8% for the S&P 500. Holders watching a business grow that fast may assume the stock would fall no further than the market if the market turned. So how far has Amphenol stock fallen when the market turned before, and how long did it stay down?
How Far Has Amphenol Stock Fallen In Market Shocks?
Amphenol stock dropped an average of 18.3% across 15 market shocks since 2007, compared with a 15.8% decline for the S&P 500. A fall of that size from the November 2 close of $79.84 would take the stock to about $65. The shares did not fall further every time. During the 2025 tariff shock, the stock lost 15% while the S&P 500 fell 19%.
The hardest hit came during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, when the stock fell 60% alongside a 53% drop for the S&P 500. The 2022 inflation shock sent the shares down 28%, compared with 24% for the index.
The median wait from the low back to the old high was 2.3 months, though two recoveries took much longer. Amphenol needed 12.8 months to regain its high after the 2022 low, and 23.5 months after the 2008 low.
Amphenol Has Grown Far Larger In Two Years
Over the twelve months to September 2026, sales reached $33.0 billion, up from $14.2 billion two years earlier. Amphenol also keeps more of each dollar of sales than it did. The company recorded an operating margin of 28.3% over those twelve months, compared with 21.3% two years earlier. That marks the highest margin across the 40 quarter ends going back to late 2016.
In fiscal 2025, most of the company’s growth came from one place. The Communications Solutions segment generated $12.2 billion in fiscal 2025. That represented a 90.7% increase from fiscal 2024, growing far faster than the company’s other two segments. Sales to the IT datacom market accounted for 48% of the total in the third quarter, and management said about three quarters of those sales are related to AI.
Amphenol carries far more debt as well, holding $17.9 billion at September 30, 2026, compared with $8.07 billion a year earlier. Even so, that debt equals 9.1% of the company’s market value, compared with 19.2% for the S&P 500.
What Is Getting Worse At Amphenol Now?
Management named one market that is shrinking. On the October 28 call, the company said third-quarter sales to communications network operators fell 28% from a year earlier on an organic basis, a measure that leaves out acquisitions. This decline was due in particular to weaker broadband demand, and management expects those sales to decline further in the fourth quarter.
Management also said there are pockets of demand uncertainty across the automotive market, which made up 10% of third-quarter sales.
Amphenol is expected to report its fourth-quarter results in January 2027, and its sales to communications network operators are the figure to watch then.
Still Holding Amphenol After The Drop?
Selling a fallen stock can still bring a tax bill if you bought long ago, and holding keeps the risk. A free 30-minute strategy review with our partner advisory firm covers a floor under a large position and a lower-tax unwind.
Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.