How Will Analog Devices Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, November 25, 2025. The company has $115 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $10 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.6 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.0 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Analog Devices’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 47% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 5.8%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -1.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/20/2025 | 6.3% | 10.9% | 8.5% |
| 5/22/2025 | -4.6% | -2.9% | 4.4% |
| 2/19/2025 | 9.7% | 6.8% | -4.2% |
| 11/26/2024 | -2.0% | -0.9% | -2.1% |
| 8/21/2024 | 1.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% |
| 5/22/2024 | 10.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% |
| 2/21/2024 | 2.3% | -0.2% | 3.1% |
| 11/21/2023 | -1.4% | -0.3% | 5.0% |
| 8/23/2023 | 0.5% | 3.3% | -1.1% |
| 5/24/2023 | -7.8% | -5.4% | -0.6% |
| 2/15/2023 | 7.5% | 0.7% | 2.7% |
| 11/22/2022 | 5.8% | 2.9% | 5.6% |
| 8/17/2022 | -5.0% | -8.2% | -17.0% |
| 5/18/2022 | -2.4% | -1.2% | -12.0% |
| 11/23/2021 | -1.6% | -2.8% | -6.8% |
| 8/18/2021 | -0.3% | -0.3% | 4.6% |
| 5/19/2021 | 5.0% | 12.2% | 14.4% |
| 2/17/2021 | -0.5% | -1.7% | -3.5% |
| 11/24/2020 | -0.1% | 2.7% | 4.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 10.9% | 12.2% | 14.4% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -8.2% | -17.0% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -26.1% | -34.3% | -7.7% |
| 3Y History | -64.2% | -82.6% | -75.0% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Analog Devices stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Analog Devices. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ADI Earnings Dates | ADI | KLAC | DIOD |
| 8/20/2025 | 6.3% | 0.2% | 11.5% |
| 5/22/2025 | -4.6% | 9.5% | 14.8% |
| 2/19/2025 | 9.7% | 4.4% | 12.0% |
| 11/26/2024 | -2.0% | -8.5% | 5.4% |
| 8/21/2024 | 1.8% | 9.6% | 14.7% |
| 5/22/2024 | 10.9% | 14.9% | -2.7% |
| 2/21/2024 | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| 11/21/2023 | -1.4% | 21.4% | 2.9% |
| 8/23/2023 | 0.5% | 2.8% | -3.5% |
| 5/24/2023 | -7.8% | 14.8% | 5.8% |
| 2/15/2023 | 7.5% | -5.4% | 4.8% |
| 11/22/2022 | 5.8% | 25.2% | 20.8% |
| 8/17/2022 | -5.0% | 1.7% | -4.6% |
| 5/18/2022 | -2.4% | 0.7% | -8.7% |
| 11/23/2021 | -1.6% | 21.3% | 8.6% |
| 8/18/2021 | -0.3% | -0.3% | 0.0% |
| 5/19/2021 | 5.0% | -6.6% | 0.3% |
| 2/17/2021 | -0.5% | 15.4% | 0.2% |
| CORRELATION | -16.3% | -14.9% | |
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