What Could Stall AbbVie Stock’s Run?
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AbbVie (ABBV) stock returned 38.4% over the past twelve months, compared with a 9.8% return for the S&P 500. The shares closed on November 6 just 1.2% below their high for the year. Following a run like that, shareholders want to know what might slow the stock down. Management pointed to a specific headwind during the company’s October 30 earnings call, naming a pressure that begins in 2027. What is that pressure, and has AbbVie felt it before?
AbbVie Faces An IRA Price On Vraylar In 2027
During the fiscal Q3 2026 call, management said the IRA price for the psychiatry drug Vraylar will begin in 2027, and instructed analysts to build it into their models. Under a U.S. drug-pricing law known as the IRA, the government can select certain drugs and publish prices for them. Management did not specify on the call how much of Vraylar’s sales will face that price impact.
AbbVie has encountered this before. Sales of the cancer drug Imbruvica fell 26.1% in fiscal Q3 2026, a decline management attributed to IRA pricing and competitive share pressure. Imbruvica’s revenue had already dropped 6.9% in fiscal 2024 and 14.3% in fiscal 2025.
Vraylar is the next AbbVie drug management has named, even as it continues to grow. Global sales of the treatment reached nearly $1.1 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, marking an increase of 14.3%.
How Much Of AbbVie’s Sales Could The IRA Reach?
In fiscal 2025, Vraylar sales rose 10.8% from a year earlier to $3.62 billion. That performance accounted for 5.9% of the company’s revenue for the year. Management expects the drug to reach $4.2 billion in sales for fiscal 2026, so the drug is still adding sales right up to the year its price begins.
Botox remains an open question. Sales of Botox Therapeutic climbed 14.8% to $3.77 billion in fiscal 2025, making it slightly larger than Vraylar. During the call, management argued the IRA cannot select Botox because human serum albumin, one of its three ingredients, derives from human blood plasma. A federal district court ruled in AbbVie’s favor on that point the day before the call. The company added that the matter is not over since the government can still appeal, and management noted it does not expect a price to be published while that plays out.
Investors are currently paying a high price for AbbVie’s earnings. The stock trades at 49.8 times its last twelve months of earnings, compared with 21.8 for the S&P 500. That valuation relies on reported earnings, which run well below the company’s adjusted measure. During fiscal Q3 2026, AbbVie recorded $2.37 a share under its reported measure, alongside an adjusted figure of $3.82 a share.
AbbVie’s IRA Risk Is Real But Builds Slowly
While the IRA price presents a real cost, it has reached AbbVie one drug at a time so far, and the company has kept growing through the first one. Total revenue rose 10.3% in fiscal Q3 2026, even as Imbruvica’s sales shrank. Management said that many sell-side models already appear to include the Vraylar price, and the company expects top-tier growth again in 2027.
AbbVie stock has also fallen less than the S&P 500 during most recent market shocks. The shares dropped 13.0% in the 2025 tariff shock, compared with a 19.0% decline for the index. During the 2022 inflation shock, the stock shed 1.5%, while the index fell 24.0%. The 2023 banking crisis stood as an exception, with AbbVie falling 13.0% as the S&P 500 fell 6.7%.
For the risk to be worth taking, AbbVie’s growing drugs must continue adding more in sales than Vraylar gives up once its price begins. The company’s two largest drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, brought in $17.6 billion and $8.3 billion in fiscal 2025, reflecting increases of 49.9% and 39.1%. Vraylar’s sales, alongside the 2027 guidance management plans to deliver during the fourth-quarter call, are the figures to watch when AbbVie reports in February 2027.
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