Before I went to bed this morning (~2am EST) I wondered, “Hmmmmm. Did we ever create a ‘What-if’ scenario that depicted the outcome of this election?”
Turns out we did. Twice.
On September 13th in a post If Seven Close States Flip to Trump, He Would Win. Go ahead and read it.
Then look at the scenario itself.
And more recently, on October 18, we modeled a Trump victory over Clinton 278 to 260.
When we began this series we wrote:
“Keep in mind, our interest in doing this series is strictly in service of our business. We hope you read our posts, experience our technology and think about Trefis should a need arise in your business for one of our solutions. Trefis has no preferred candidate; we merely want to provoke some thought, show off our interface and have a little fun while doing it.”
In keeping with that spirit, we will let others debate the why’s and the how’s of Trump’s victory, although we must admit that our post on social desirability bias–“What-if” Election Series: When People Lie, Polls Are Useless”–may have gotten the election’s dynamic more right than wrong.
We hope you had a much fun reading our series as we did writing it.