Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Market Price (12/24/2025): $119.55 | Market Cap: $512.3 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Market Price (12/24/2025): $119.55Market Cap: $512.3 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.4% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 52 Bil, FCF LTM is 24 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53% | Key risksXOM key risks include [1] growing regulatory, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 52 Bil, FCF LTM is 24 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.4% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.1% |
| Key risksXOM key risks include [1] growing regulatory, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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Based on information available up to December 24, 2025, Exxon Mobil (XOM) stock experienced an increase of approximately 5.9% from September 30, 2025, to December 23, 2025, closing at $119.42 on December 23, 2025, compared to $112.75 on September 30, 2025. Several key factors contributed to this positive movement: **1. Strong Q4 2025 Financial Performance.** ExxonMobil achieved record oil production in 2025 and surpassed profit expectations for Q4 2025, reporting $7.61 billion in net income, marking its strongest output in over a decade. The company's oil equivalent production reached 4.33 million barrels per day in 2024 and approximately 4.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q4 2024.**2. Increased Long-Term Earnings and Cash Flow Targets.** Exxon Mobil updated its corporate plan, targeting $25 billion in earnings growth from 2024 to 2030, an increase of $5 billion from its prior plan. The company also aims for $35 billion in cash flow growth by 2030 versus 2024, representing an additional $5 billion compared to its earlier outlook.
**3. Enhanced Cost Savings and Operational Efficiency.** ExxonMobil increased its structural cost savings plan by $2 billion, aiming for $20 billion in reductions by 2030. The company's focus on operational excellence, including leveraging artificial intelligence, contributes to significant cost savings across operations and improved profitability.
**4. Higher Production Targets and Project Progress in Key Regions.** The company's upstream production is projected to reach 5.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030, an increase from a previous forecast, primarily driven by growth in the Permian Basin and Guyana. Notable project advancements include government approvals for the Hammerhead project and the early startup of Yellowtail in Guyana, which increased total installed capacity. ExxonMobil also achieved its first upstream production in Brazil with the Bacalhau project.
**5. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Favorable Price Targets.** Wall Street analysts have issued a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating for Exxon Mobil. The average twelve-month price target for XOM is $129.45, suggesting a potential upside of 8.46% from its price of $119.35, with the stock receiving three analyst upgrades over the preceding 90 days. Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.7% change in XOM stock from 9/23/2025 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 8.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 9232025 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 112.96 | 119.42 | 5.72% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 329385.00 | 324924.00 | -1.35% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.42% | 9.22% | -2.10% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.77 | 17.08 | 8.30% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4331.00 | 4285.00 | 1.06% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.71% |
Market Drivers
9/23/2025 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 5.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.7% | 12.4% |
| Sector (XLE) | -0.2% | 85.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.2% change in XOM stock from 6/24/2025 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 21.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 6242025 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 106.41 | 119.42 | 12.23% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 339894.00 | 324924.00 | -4.40% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.76% | 9.22% | -5.55% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.02 | 17.08 | 21.82% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4372.00 | 4285.00 | 1.99% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.18% |
Market Drivers
6/24/2025 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 12.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.7% | 9.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 5.7% | 85.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.5% change in XOM stock from 12/23/2024 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 25.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12232024 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 102.54 | 119.42 | 16.47% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 339877.00 | 324924.00 | -4.40% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.92% | 9.22% | -7.03% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.58 | 17.08 | 25.84% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4462.00 | 4285.00 | 3.97% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.28% |
Market Drivers
12/23/2024 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 16.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.7% | 42.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | 8.7% | 89.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 21.8% change in XOM stock from 12/24/2022 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 116.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12242022 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 98.03 | 119.42 | 21.82% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 386816.00 | 324924.00 | -16.00% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.41% | 9.22% | -31.24% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.91 | 17.08 | 115.96% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4185.00 | 4285.00 | -2.39% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 21.75% |
Market Drivers
12/24/2023 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 25.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.4% | 32.0% |
| Sector (XLE) | 10.9% | 89.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| XOM Return | -36% | 58% | 87% | -6% | 11% | 14% | 124% |
| Peers Return | -36% | 60% | 83% | 4% | -7% | 9% | 98% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| XOM Win Rate | 25% | 75% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 63% | 65% | 53% | 45% | 63% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| XOM Max Drawdown | -54% | 0% | 0% | -9% | -3% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -67% | -1% | 0% | -15% | -12% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CVX, COP, OXY, MPC, VLO. See XOM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/23/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | XOM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 125.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 659 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,169 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,738 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to CVX, COP, MPC, DEC, XOM
In The Past
Exxon Mobil's stock fell -20.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -20.5% loss requires a 25.8% gain to breakeven.
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Exxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. The company is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; manufactures and sells petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, aromatics, and various other petrochemicals; and captures and stores carbon, hydrogen, and biofuels. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 20,528 net operated wells with proved reserves. The company was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Exxon Mobil:
- The Amazon of fossil fuels
- The Coca-Cola of oil and gas
- The Microsoft of energy
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- Crude Oil and Natural Gas: Exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas, which serve as primary energy sources.
- Refined Petroleum Products: Manufacturing and marketing a wide range of fuels, lubricants, and other refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
- Chemical Products: Production and sale of petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics, used in various industrial and consumer goods.
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Exxon Mobil (symbol: XOM) sells primarily to other companies rather than directly to individuals. Due to the commodity nature and global scale of its business, Exxon Mobil typically does not disclose specific 'major customers' in its financial reports, as its sales are highly diversified across numerous industrial, commercial, and energy sector buyers. However, its primary customers fall into the following categories of companies:
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Airlines: Major airlines purchase significant quantities of jet fuel from ExxonMobil.
- Example customer company: Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL)
-
Chemical Manufacturers and Plastic Fabricators: Companies that produce various plastics, packaging, and other industrial products utilize petrochemical feedstocks and polymers from ExxonMobil Chemical.
- Example customer company: Berry Global Group (NYSE: BERY)
-
Utility and Industrial Companies: These companies purchase natural gas, lubricants, and other specialized fuels for power generation, manufacturing, and other industrial operations.
- Example customer company: Southern Company (NYSE: SO)
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- Schlumberger (SLB)
- Halliburton (HAL)
- Baker Hughes (BKR)
- TechnipFMC (FTI)
- Fluor Corporation (FLR)
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Darren W. Woods
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Darren W. Woods has served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of ExxonMobil since January 1, 2017. He joined Exxon Company International in 1992 as a planning analyst. Throughout his career, he advanced through various domestic and international assignments within ExxonMobil Chemical Company and ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Company. Key roles included Vice President of ExxonMobil Chemical Company (2005), Director of Refining for Europe, Africa and the Middle East (2008), and Vice President of Supply and Transportation (2010). He became President of ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Company and a Vice President of Exxon Mobil Corporation in 2012, followed by Senior Vice President in 2014, and President and a board member in 2016. Prior to his CEO role, Mr. Woods was a veteran of the refining side of the oil business, having led the company's refining and chemical divisions.
Kathryn A. Mikells
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Kathryn A. Mikells assumed the role of Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Exxon Mobil Corporation in August 2021. Notably, she is the first woman and first external hire to join ExxonMobil's management committee. Before joining ExxonMobil, Ms. Mikells spent six years as Chief Financial Officer for Diageo, Plc. Her extensive experience includes CFO positions at several other major companies such as Xerox, ADT Security, Nalco, and United Airlines. At United Airlines, she started as a financial analyst in 1994 and progressed to various posts, eventually becoming CFO in 2008. During her tenure as CFO at Diageo, she was credited with cost reduction and reshaping the company’s portfolio, including the acquisition of Casamigos tequila and Aviation American Gin, and the sale of various rum and vodka brands.
Neil A. Chapman
Senior Vice President
Neil A. Chapman joined the Exxon Mobil Corporation Management Committee as Senior Vice President in 2018. His career at ExxonMobil has included responsibilities for aviation fuels marketing, industrial and wholesale fuels, and serving as Vice President of ExxonMobil Chemical Company's global polyethylene business. He also held positions as executive assistant to the chairman of Exxon Mobil Corporation, President of ExxonMobil Global Services Company, Senior Vice President of the company’s global polymers businesses, and President of ExxonMobil Chemical Company before taking on his current role.
Jack P. Williams Jr.
Senior Vice President
Jack P. Williams Jr. was elected Senior Vice President of Exxon Mobil Corporation in 2014.
Dan L. Ammann
President, ExxonMobil Upstream Company (effective February 1, 2025) and Vice President, Exxon Mobil Corporation
Dan L. Ammann is appointed President of ExxonMobil Upstream Company and Vice President of Exxon Mobil Corporation, effective February 1, 2025. He joined ExxonMobil in 2022 as President of Low Carbon Solutions. Prior to his time at ExxonMobil, Mr. Ammann served as CEO of Cruise, a company majority-owned by General Motors, and as President of General Motors. He also held positions as a managing director at Morgan Stanley.
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Exxon Mobil (XOM) faces several key risks to its business, primarily driven by the evolving global energy landscape and inherent industry volatility.The most significant risks include:
- Energy Transition and Climate Change Risks: Exxon Mobil's business is highly susceptible to the accelerating global shift from fossil fuels to lower-carbon energy sources, known as the energy transition. This encompasses increasing regulatory pressure on emissions, which can adversely affect operations and financial results. The company also faces market risks as demand gradually transitions to less carbon-intensive fuels. Furthermore, there are physical risks to assets from climate change, such as changes in weather patterns, sea-level fluctuations, and increased storm activity. Reputational risks also arise from criticism regarding its environmental record and contributions to global warming.
- Commodity Price Volatility: As a fundamentally commodity-based business, Exxon Mobil's operations and earnings are significantly affected by fluctuations in oil, gas, and petrochemical prices, as well as refining margins. These prices are highly dependent on unpredictable local, regional, and global events that influence supply and demand for these commodities.
- Global Chemical Market Oversupply: The chemical segment of Exxon Mobil's business has experienced substantial earnings reductions due to a worldwide oversupply of products and resulting "bottom-of-cycle" margins. This oversupply acts as a significant drag on diversified earnings, even when other segments perform well.
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The accelerating global transition to renewable energy and the widespread electrification of transportation, which directly threatens the long-term demand for fossil fuels and could diminish Exxon Mobil's core product revenue streams.
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Exxon Mobil (XOM) participates in several large addressable markets through its main products and services, which include crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum products, and a variety of chemical products. The company is also expanding into low-carbon solutions.
Upstream (Crude Oil and Natural Gas)
- Crude Oil: The global crude oil market was valued at approximately $2.6 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach $3.0 trillion by 2033. Another estimate indicates the global crude oil market size was valued at USD 739.88 billion in 2023 and is poised to grow to USD 853.5 billion by 2032. Global oil demand is projected to reach 104.4 million barrels per day in 2025.
- Natural Gas: The global natural gas market size was valued at USD 1,127.09 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 2,142.88 billion by 2032.
Product Solutions (Refined Petroleum Products and Chemical Products)
- Refined Petroleum Products: The global refined petroleum products market size was estimated at USD 3,061.03 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3,816.1 billion by 2033. Other estimates for the global market include a valuation of USD 1,454.8 billion in 2023, projected to reach USD 1,878.37 billion by 2032, and approximately $2,518.45 billion in 2022, with a projection to reach $3,795.85 billion in 2032. ExxonMobil's global average refining capacity was 4.6 million barrels per day.
- Chemical Products (Petrochemicals): The global petrochemicals market size was valued at USD 623.83 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 900.91 billion by 2032. Another report estimates the global petrochemical market size at USD 700.10 billion in 2025, forecasted to reach around USD 1,193.26 billion by 2034. The Asia Pacific region held a significant market share of 52.16% in the petrochemicals market in 2023, and the U.S. petrochemicals market is projected to reach USD 105.76 billion by 2032.
Low Carbon Solutions
- ExxonMobil is developing products like the Proxxima™ resin system and advanced carbon materials (for applications such as energy storage and structural composites), which represent a potential market of $100 billion by 2030. Additionally, the market for battery anode materials, which ExxonMobil is targeting, is estimated to be up to $40 billion.
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Exxon Mobil (XOM) Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth
Over the next 2-3 years, Exxon Mobil (XOM) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth through a combination of increased upstream production from advantaged assets, expansion in high-value product solutions, and the realization of significant structural cost savings and operational efficiencies. The company's strategic investments in low-carbon solutions and the ramp-up of key projects are also poised to contribute to its financial performance.1. Upstream Production Growth from Advantaged Assets
A primary driver of future revenue growth for Exxon Mobil is the substantial increase in upstream production, particularly from its advantaged assets in the Permian Basin and Guyana. The company aims to ramp up its upstream production to 5.4 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2030, with over 60% originating from these high-profitability regions. ExxonMobil's Permian Basin assets are projected to double production to 2.3 million barrels per day by 2030, supported by advanced technology, including a proprietary lightweight proppant expected to be used in approximately 50% of new wells by late 2026, improving well recoveries by up to 20%. Similarly, Guyana is expected to see eight operational developments, boosting production capacity to 1.3 million barrels per day. The acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources has also significantly expanded ExxonMobil's Permian position, contributing to this growth. These efforts are expected to increase per-barrel profit from $10 a barrel in 2024 to $13 a barrel in 2030.2. Expansion in Product Solutions and High-Value Products
Exxon Mobil is strategically expanding its Product Solutions segment, focusing on high-value products to contribute significantly to future earnings. The company plans to expand its high-value product sales by 80% compared with 2024, aiming for these products to contribute over 40% of its 2030 earnings potential. This growth is partly driven by innovative projects such as advanced plastics recycling, renewable diesel, and Proxxima thermoset resin manufacturing. ExxonMobil is also venturing into the battery anode market, introducing advanced graphite materials designed to enhance electric vehicle performance, including faster charging times (30%) and increased range (30%). Production capacity for Proxima-based products has already tripled.3. Realization of Structural Cost Savings and Operational Efficiencies
Significant structural cost savings and enhanced operational efficiencies are expected to bolster Exxon Mobil's revenue growth by improving profitability. The company aims to achieve more than $18 billion in cumulative structural cost savings by the end of 2030, having already surpassed $14 billion in cumulative savings since 2019. These savings are being realized through process simplification, supply chain optimization, and the adoption of advanced IT systems. Such efficiencies contribute to a lower cost of supply, with plans to improve break-evens to $35 per barrel by 2027 and $30 per barrel by 2030. This disciplined cost management has helped maintain profitability despite fluctuations in commodity prices.4. Strategic Investments in Low-Carbon Solutions
Exxon Mobil is committing substantial capital to lower-emission opportunities, which, while perhaps not generating immediate significant revenue, position the company for long-term growth in evolving energy markets. The company plans to allocate up to $30 billion to these initiatives between 2025 and 2030. Key projects include the development of the world's largest carbon capture and storage system and the construction of a hydrogen facility in Baytown with an annual capacity of 1 billion cubic feet of carbon-free hydrogen. These investments align with ExxonMobil's strategy to address global climate challenges while simultaneously driving economic value and expanding into new, sustainability-focused markets.5. Contribution from Key Project Start-ups
A series of key project startups in 2025 are anticipated to provide a substantial boost to Exxon Mobil's earnings and, consequently, revenue. The company expects more than $3 billion in earnings contributions next year at constant prices and margins from these projects. By the end of 2025, ExxonMobil aims to have started up eight of ten key projects, with the remaining two on track. One notable example is the Yellowtail project in Guyana, which came online four months ahead of schedule and under budget, adding 250,000 barrels per day of production capacity. Other successful startups include a resid upgrade in Singapore and advancements in battery performance-related technologies.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Exxon Mobil's share repurchase pace accelerated from $305 million in 2020 to $5.78 billion annually by 2025, contributing to a reduction of over 10% in outstanding shares during this period.
- The company has committed to an annual share repurchase program of $20 billion for both 2025 and 2026.
- In December 2022, Exxon Mobil announced an expansion of its share repurchase program to a total of $50 billion through 2024, building on a previous plan of $30 billion through 2023.
Share Issuance
- In 2024, Exxon Mobil issued 545 million shares of common stock, valued at $63 billion, to complete the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources Company.
- In 2023, the company issued 46 million shares of common stock, valued at $4.8 billion, for the acquisition of Denbury Inc.
- Exxon Mobil has repurchased approximately 40% of the shares issued for the Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition since May 2024.
Outbound Investments
- Exxon Mobil completed the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources Company for nearly $60 billion in an all-stock merger in May 2024.
- In 2023, Exxon Mobil acquired Denbury Inc. for $4.8 billion in common stock.
- In Q1 2025, Exxon Mobil sold stakes in certain onshore blocks in Thailand to Horizon Oil for approximately $30 million plus contingent payments.
Capital Expenditures
- Exxon Mobil's capital expenditures averaged $18.798 billion annually from fiscal years ending December 2020 to 2024, increasing from $12.076 billion in 2021 to $24.306 billion in 2024.
- The company anticipates annual capital expenditures of $27 billion to $29 billion in 2025, and $28 billion to $33 billion annually from 2026 through 2030.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes advantaged assets in Guyana and the U.S. Permian Basin, targeted exploration in Brazil, Chemicals projects, and pursuing up to $30 billion in lower emissions investment opportunities between 2025 and 2030.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to XOM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.5% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 29.0% | 29.0% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.3% | -4.3% | -7.1% |
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Peer Comparisons for Exxon Mobil
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 134.97 |
| Mkt Cap | 83.2 |
| Rev LTM | 128,166 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,676 |
| FCF LTM | 5,682 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,604 |
| CFO LTM | 15,594 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,296 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 83.2 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 10.5 |
| P/E | 18.2 |
| P/CFO | 8.0 |
| Total Yield | 8.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 9.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -65.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Products | 320,122 | 371,872 | 208,906 | ||
| Upstream | 85,527 | 116,898 | 21,797 | 14,549 | 23,143 |
| Chemical Products | 33,899 | 41,901 | 28,628 | ||
| Specialty Products | 21,532 | 23,291 | 17,331 | ||
| Intersegment revenue | -126,451 | -155,564 | |||
| Corporate and Financing | 277 | 30 | 38 | 41 | |
| Chemical | 23,091 | 27,416 | |||
| Downstream | 140,896 | 204,983 | |||
| Total | 334,629 | 398,675 | 276,692 | 178,574 | 255,583 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 21,308 | 36,479 | 15,775 | -20,030 | 14,442 |
| Energy Products | 12,142 | 14,966 | -346 | ||
| Specialty Products | 2,714 | 2,415 | 3,259 | ||
| Chemical Products | 1,637 | 3,543 | 6,989 | ||
| Corporate and Financing | -1,791 | -1,663 | -2,636 | -3,296 | -3,017 |
| Chemical | 1,963 | 592 | |||
| Downstream | -1,077 | 2,323 | |||
| Total | 36,010 | 55,740 | 23,041 | -22,440 | 14,340 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 206,366 | 206,459 | 209,272 | 216,017 | 246,931 |
| Energy Products | 74,460 | 73,565 | 64,630 | ||
| Corporate and Financing | 49,817 | 44,671 | 22,863 | 20,072 | 18,171 |
| Chemical Products | 34,675 | 33,217 | 31,250 | ||
| Specialty Products | 10,999 | 11,155 | 10,908 | ||
| Chemical | 38,059 | 36,920 | |||
| Downstream | 58,602 | 60,575 | |||
| Total | 376,317 | 369,067 | 338,923 | 332,750 | 362,597 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $119.42 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 517.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -0.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $115.80 | $109.85 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 3.1% | 8.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 18.9% | 23.5% |
| Downside Capture | -8.86 | 26.23 |
| Upside Capture | 19.12 | 37.07 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 10.1% | 42.8% |
XOM Betas & Captures as of 11/30/2025
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.17 | 0.23 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| Up Beta | -0.36 | 0.08 | 0.21 | -0.07 | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| Down Beta | 0.12 | 0.66 | 0.64 | 0.45 | 0.82 | 0.66 |
| Up Capture | -8% | 17% | -8% | 11% | 18% | 12% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 22 | 35 | 73 | 133 | 389 |
| Down Capture | -22% | 1% | -21% | -36% | 40% | 68% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 52 | 115 | 359 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of XOM With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 16.3% | 9.4% | 18.8% | 72.9% | 9.0% | 3.7% | -11.4% |
| Annualized Volatility | 23.4% | 24.5% | 19.5% | 19.2% | 15.3% | 17.2% | 35.0% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.58 | 0.32 | 0.76 | 2.72 | 0.36 | 0.05 | -0.14 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 89.8% | 42.8% | 3.5% | 61.0% | 40.4% | 18.0% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLE, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of XOM With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 27.7% | 21.7% | 14.8% | 18.9% | 11.8% | 4.7% | 35.5% |
| Annualized Volatility | 27.0% | 26.7% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.9% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.92 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.98 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 0.62 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 93.1% | 34.2% | 14.6% | 62.4% | 25.9% | 14.6% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLE, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of XOM With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 8.8% | 7.9% | 14.8% | 15.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 69.1% |
| Annualized Volatility | 27.9% | 29.8% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.35 | 0.32 | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.31 | 0.23 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 91.5% | 52.5% | 4.5% | 57.7% | 42.3% | 12.2% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLE, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4292024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11032021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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