Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Market Price (2/21/2026): $147.53 | Market Cap: $632.2 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Market Price (2/21/2026): $147.53Market Cap: $632.2 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -27% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 12x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 52 Bil, FCF LTM is 24 Bil | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.1% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | Key risksXOM key risks include [1] growing regulatory, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 52 Bil, FCF LTM is 24 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -27% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 12x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.1% |
| Key risksXOM key risks include [1] growing regulatory, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Exxon Mobil (XOM) stock has gained about 30% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Exxon Mobil delivered stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results. The company reported Q4 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $1.71, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $1.63 or $1.69. Quarterly revenue also exceeded forecasts, reaching $82.31 billion. For the full year 2025, Exxon Mobil generated $28.8 billion in earnings and $52 billion in cash flow from operations, demonstrating industry-leading financial performance with a 21% compound annual growth rate in EPS since 2019.
2. The company committed to substantial shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases. Exxon Mobil distributed a record $37.2 billion to shareholders in 2025, comprising both dividends and aggressive share buybacks. The company remained on track to repurchase $20 billion of its shares in 2025, with plans to maintain this pace through 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions. Fourth-quarter 2025 shareholder distributions alone totaled $9.5 billion, including $5.1 billion in share repurchases.
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1. Exxon Mobil delivered stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results. The company reported Q4 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $1.71, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $1.63 or $1.69. Quarterly revenue also exceeded forecasts, reaching $82.31 billion. For the full year 2025, Exxon Mobil generated $28.8 billion in earnings and $52 billion in cash flow from operations, demonstrating industry-leading financial performance with a 21% compound annual growth rate in EPS since 2019.
2. The company committed to substantial shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases. Exxon Mobil distributed a record $37.2 billion to shareholders in 2025, comprising both dividends and aggressive share buybacks. The company remained on track to repurchase $20 billion of its shares in 2025, with plans to maintain this pace through 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions. Fourth-quarter 2025 shareholder distributions alone totaled $9.5 billion, including $5.1 billion in share repurchases.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 30.8% change in XOM stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 34.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 112.62 | 147.28 | 30.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 329,385 | 324,924 | -1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.4% | 9.2% | -2.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.7 | 21.1 | 34.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,331 | 4,285 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 30.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 30.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 3.5% |
| Sector (XLE) | 24.5% | 90.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 35.2% change in XOM stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 46.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 108.93 | 147.28 | 35.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 339,894 | 324,924 | -4.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.8% | 9.2% | -5.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.4 | 21.1 | 46.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,372 | 4,285 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 35.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 35.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.4% | 7.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 26.9% | 90.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 43.9% change in XOM stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 55.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 102.37 | 147.28 | 43.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 339,877 | 324,924 | -4.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.9% | 9.2% | -7.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.6 | 21.1 | 55.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,462 | 4,285 | 4.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 43.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 43.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 39.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | 28.3% | 91.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 41.7% change in XOM stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 151.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 103.95 | 147.28 | 41.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 386,816 | 324,924 | -16.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.4% | 9.2% | -31.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.4 | 21.1 | 151.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,185 | 4,285 | -2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 41.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 41.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.9% | 28.6% |
| Sector (XLE) | 34.0% | 90.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| XOM Return | 58% | 87% | -6% | 11% | 16% | 26% | 351% |
| Peers Return | 60% | 83% | 4% | -7% | 10% | 22% | 283% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 0% | 83% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| XOM Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 65% | 53% | 45% | 65% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| XOM Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | -9% | -3% | -6% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | 0% | -15% | -12% | -16% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CVX, COP, OXY, MPC, VLO. See XOM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | XOM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 125.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 659 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,169 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,738 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to CVX, COP, OXY, MPC, VLO
In The Past
Exxon Mobil's stock fell -20.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -20.5% loss requires a 25.8% gain to breakeven.
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About Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Exxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. The company is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; manufactures and sells petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, aromatics, and various other petrochemicals; and captures and stores carbon, hydrogen, and biofuels. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 20,528 net operated wells with proved reserves. The company was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Exxon Mobil:
- The Amazon of fossil fuels
- The Coca-Cola of oil and gas
- The Microsoft of energy
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- Crude Oil and Natural Gas: Exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas, which serve as primary energy sources.
- Refined Petroleum Products: Manufacturing and marketing a wide range of fuels, lubricants, and other refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
- Chemical Products: Production and sale of petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics, used in various industrial and consumer goods.
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Exxon Mobil (symbol: XOM) sells primarily to other companies rather than directly to individuals. Due to the commodity nature and global scale of its business, Exxon Mobil typically does not disclose specific 'major customers' in its financial reports, as its sales are highly diversified across numerous industrial, commercial, and energy sector buyers. However, its primary customers fall into the following categories of companies:
-
Airlines: Major airlines purchase significant quantities of jet fuel from ExxonMobil.
- Example customer company: Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL)
-
Chemical Manufacturers and Plastic Fabricators: Companies that produce various plastics, packaging, and other industrial products utilize petrochemical feedstocks and polymers from ExxonMobil Chemical.
- Example customer company: Berry Global Group (NYSE: BERY)
-
Utility and Industrial Companies: These companies purchase natural gas, lubricants, and other specialized fuels for power generation, manufacturing, and other industrial operations.
- Example customer company: Southern Company (NYSE: SO)
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- Schlumberger (SLB)
- Halliburton (HAL)
- Baker Hughes (BKR)
- TechnipFMC (FTI)
- Fluor Corporation (FLR)
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Darren W. Woods
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Darren W. Woods has served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of ExxonMobil since January 1, 2017. He joined Exxon Company International in 1992 as a planning analyst. Throughout his career, he advanced through various domestic and international assignments within ExxonMobil Chemical Company and ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Company. Key roles included Vice President of ExxonMobil Chemical Company (2005), Director of Refining for Europe, Africa and the Middle East (2008), and Vice President of Supply and Transportation (2010). He became President of ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Company and a Vice President of Exxon Mobil Corporation in 2012, followed by Senior Vice President in 2014, and President and a board member in 2016. Prior to his CEO role, Mr. Woods was a veteran of the refining side of the oil business, having led the company's refining and chemical divisions.
Kathryn A. Mikells
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Kathryn A. Mikells assumed the role of Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Exxon Mobil Corporation in August 2021. Notably, she is the first woman and first external hire to join ExxonMobil's management committee. Before joining ExxonMobil, Ms. Mikells spent six years as Chief Financial Officer for Diageo, Plc. Her extensive experience includes CFO positions at several other major companies such as Xerox, ADT Security, Nalco, and United Airlines. At United Airlines, she started as a financial analyst in 1994 and progressed to various posts, eventually becoming CFO in 2008. During her tenure as CFO at Diageo, she was credited with cost reduction and reshaping the company’s portfolio, including the acquisition of Casamigos tequila and Aviation American Gin, and the sale of various rum and vodka brands.
Neil A. Chapman
Senior Vice President
Neil A. Chapman joined the Exxon Mobil Corporation Management Committee as Senior Vice President in 2018. His career at ExxonMobil has included responsibilities for aviation fuels marketing, industrial and wholesale fuels, and serving as Vice President of ExxonMobil Chemical Company's global polyethylene business. He also held positions as executive assistant to the chairman of Exxon Mobil Corporation, President of ExxonMobil Global Services Company, Senior Vice President of the company’s global polymers businesses, and President of ExxonMobil Chemical Company before taking on his current role.
Jack P. Williams Jr.
Senior Vice President
Jack P. Williams Jr. was elected Senior Vice President of Exxon Mobil Corporation in 2014.
Dan L. Ammann
President, ExxonMobil Upstream Company (effective February 1, 2025) and Vice President, Exxon Mobil Corporation
Dan L. Ammann is appointed President of ExxonMobil Upstream Company and Vice President of Exxon Mobil Corporation, effective February 1, 2025. He joined ExxonMobil in 2022 as President of Low Carbon Solutions. Prior to his time at ExxonMobil, Mr. Ammann served as CEO of Cruise, a company majority-owned by General Motors, and as President of General Motors. He also held positions as a managing director at Morgan Stanley.
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Exxon Mobil (XOM) faces several key risks to its business, primarily driven by the evolving global energy landscape and inherent industry volatility.The most significant risks include:
- Energy Transition and Climate Change Risks: Exxon Mobil's business is highly susceptible to the accelerating global shift from fossil fuels to lower-carbon energy sources, known as the energy transition. This encompasses increasing regulatory pressure on emissions, which can adversely affect operations and financial results. The company also faces market risks as demand gradually transitions to less carbon-intensive fuels. Furthermore, there are physical risks to assets from climate change, such as changes in weather patterns, sea-level fluctuations, and increased storm activity. Reputational risks also arise from criticism regarding its environmental record and contributions to global warming.
- Commodity Price Volatility: As a fundamentally commodity-based business, Exxon Mobil's operations and earnings are significantly affected by fluctuations in oil, gas, and petrochemical prices, as well as refining margins. These prices are highly dependent on unpredictable local, regional, and global events that influence supply and demand for these commodities.
- Global Chemical Market Oversupply: The chemical segment of Exxon Mobil's business has experienced substantial earnings reductions due to a worldwide oversupply of products and resulting "bottom-of-cycle" margins. This oversupply acts as a significant drag on diversified earnings, even when other segments perform well.
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The accelerating global transition to renewable energy and the widespread electrification of transportation, which directly threatens the long-term demand for fossil fuels and could diminish Exxon Mobil's core product revenue streams.
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Exxon Mobil (XOM) participates in several large addressable markets through its main products and services, which include crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum products, and a variety of chemical products. The company is also expanding into low-carbon solutions.
Upstream (Crude Oil and Natural Gas)
- Crude Oil: The global crude oil market was valued at approximately $2.6 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach $3.0 trillion by 2033. Another estimate indicates the global crude oil market size was valued at USD 739.88 billion in 2023 and is poised to grow to USD 853.5 billion by 2032. Global oil demand is projected to reach 104.4 million barrels per day in 2025.
- Natural Gas: The global natural gas market size was valued at USD 1,127.09 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 2,142.88 billion by 2032.
Product Solutions (Refined Petroleum Products and Chemical Products)
- Refined Petroleum Products: The global refined petroleum products market size was estimated at USD 3,061.03 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3,816.1 billion by 2033. Other estimates for the global market include a valuation of USD 1,454.8 billion in 2023, projected to reach USD 1,878.37 billion by 2032, and approximately $2,518.45 billion in 2022, with a projection to reach $3,795.85 billion in 2032. ExxonMobil's global average refining capacity was 4.6 million barrels per day.
- Chemical Products (Petrochemicals): The global petrochemicals market size was valued at USD 623.83 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 900.91 billion by 2032. Another report estimates the global petrochemical market size at USD 700.10 billion in 2025, forecasted to reach around USD 1,193.26 billion by 2034. The Asia Pacific region held a significant market share of 52.16% in the petrochemicals market in 2023, and the U.S. petrochemicals market is projected to reach USD 105.76 billion by 2032.
Low Carbon Solutions
- ExxonMobil is developing products like the Proxxima™ resin system and advanced carbon materials (for applications such as energy storage and structural composites), which represent a potential market of $100 billion by 2030. Additionally, the market for battery anode materials, which ExxonMobil is targeting, is estimated to be up to $40 billion.
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Exxon Mobil (XOM) Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth
Over the next 2-3 years, Exxon Mobil (XOM) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth through a combination of increased upstream production from advantaged assets, expansion in high-value product solutions, and the realization of significant structural cost savings and operational efficiencies. The company's strategic investments in low-carbon solutions and the ramp-up of key projects are also poised to contribute to its financial performance.1. Upstream Production Growth from Advantaged Assets
A primary driver of future revenue growth for Exxon Mobil is the substantial increase in upstream production, particularly from its advantaged assets in the Permian Basin and Guyana. The company aims to ramp up its upstream production to 5.4 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2030, with over 60% originating from these high-profitability regions. ExxonMobil's Permian Basin assets are projected to double production to 2.3 million barrels per day by 2030, supported by advanced technology, including a proprietary lightweight proppant expected to be used in approximately 50% of new wells by late 2026, improving well recoveries by up to 20%. Similarly, Guyana is expected to see eight operational developments, boosting production capacity to 1.3 million barrels per day. The acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources has also significantly expanded ExxonMobil's Permian position, contributing to this growth. These efforts are expected to increase per-barrel profit from $10 a barrel in 2024 to $13 a barrel in 2030.2. Expansion in Product Solutions and High-Value Products
Exxon Mobil is strategically expanding its Product Solutions segment, focusing on high-value products to contribute significantly to future earnings. The company plans to expand its high-value product sales by 80% compared with 2024, aiming for these products to contribute over 40% of its 2030 earnings potential. This growth is partly driven by innovative projects such as advanced plastics recycling, renewable diesel, and Proxxima thermoset resin manufacturing. ExxonMobil is also venturing into the battery anode market, introducing advanced graphite materials designed to enhance electric vehicle performance, including faster charging times (30%) and increased range (30%). Production capacity for Proxima-based products has already tripled.3. Realization of Structural Cost Savings and Operational Efficiencies
Significant structural cost savings and enhanced operational efficiencies are expected to bolster Exxon Mobil's revenue growth by improving profitability. The company aims to achieve more than $18 billion in cumulative structural cost savings by the end of 2030, having already surpassed $14 billion in cumulative savings since 2019. These savings are being realized through process simplification, supply chain optimization, and the adoption of advanced IT systems. Such efficiencies contribute to a lower cost of supply, with plans to improve break-evens to $35 per barrel by 2027 and $30 per barrel by 2030. This disciplined cost management has helped maintain profitability despite fluctuations in commodity prices.4. Strategic Investments in Low-Carbon Solutions
Exxon Mobil is committing substantial capital to lower-emission opportunities, which, while perhaps not generating immediate significant revenue, position the company for long-term growth in evolving energy markets. The company plans to allocate up to $30 billion to these initiatives between 2025 and 2030. Key projects include the development of the world's largest carbon capture and storage system and the construction of a hydrogen facility in Baytown with an annual capacity of 1 billion cubic feet of carbon-free hydrogen. These investments align with ExxonMobil's strategy to address global climate challenges while simultaneously driving economic value and expanding into new, sustainability-focused markets.5. Contribution from Key Project Start-ups
A series of key project startups in 2025 are anticipated to provide a substantial boost to Exxon Mobil's earnings and, consequently, revenue. The company expects more than $3 billion in earnings contributions next year at constant prices and margins from these projects. By the end of 2025, ExxonMobil aims to have started up eight of ten key projects, with the remaining two on track. One notable example is the Yellowtail project in Guyana, which came online four months ahead of schedule and under budget, adding 250,000 barrels per day of production capacity. Other successful startups include a resid upgrade in Singapore and advancements in battery performance-related technologies.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Exxon Mobil's share repurchase pace accelerated from $305 million in 2020 to $5.78 billion annually by 2025, contributing to a reduction of over 10% in outstanding shares during this period.
- The company has committed to an annual share repurchase program of $20 billion for both 2025 and 2026.
- In December 2022, Exxon Mobil announced an expansion of its share repurchase program to a total of $50 billion through 2024, building on a previous plan of $30 billion through 2023.
Share Issuance
- In 2024, Exxon Mobil issued 545 million shares of common stock, valued at $63 billion, to complete the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources Company.
- In 2023, the company issued 46 million shares of common stock, valued at $4.8 billion, for the acquisition of Denbury Inc.
- Exxon Mobil has repurchased approximately 40% of the shares issued for the Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition since May 2024.
Outbound Investments
- Exxon Mobil completed the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources Company for nearly $60 billion in an all-stock merger in May 2024.
- In 2023, Exxon Mobil acquired Denbury Inc. for $4.8 billion in common stock.
- In Q1 2025, Exxon Mobil sold stakes in certain onshore blocks in Thailand to Horizon Oil for approximately $30 million plus contingent payments.
Capital Expenditures
- Exxon Mobil's capital expenditures averaged $18.798 billion annually from fiscal years ending December 2020 to 2024, increasing from $12.076 billion in 2021 to $24.306 billion in 2024.
- The company anticipates annual capital expenditures of $27 billion to $29 billion in 2025, and $28 billion to $33 billion annually from 2026 through 2030.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes advantaged assets in Guyana and the U.S. Permian Basin, targeted exploration in Brazil, Chemicals projects, and pursuing up to $30 billion in lower emissions investment opportunities between 2025 and 2030.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to XOM.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12262025 | TPL | Texas Pacific Land | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 50.3% | 50.3% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 38.7% | 38.7% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.4% | 31.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 28.3% | 28.3% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 55.6% | 55.6% | -0.7% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 165.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 99.8 |
| Rev LTM | 128,166 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,676 |
| FCF LTM | 5,682 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,604 |
| CFO LTM | 15,594 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,296 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 99.8 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 13.2 |
| P/E | 22.7 |
| P/CFO | 9.6 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 24.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 24.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 38.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 13.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 12.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -35.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Products | 320,122 | 371,872 | 208,906 | ||
| Upstream | 85,527 | 116,898 | 21,797 | 14,549 | 23,143 |
| Chemical Products | 33,899 | 41,901 | 28,628 | ||
| Specialty Products | 21,532 | 23,291 | 17,331 | ||
| Intersegment revenue | -126,451 | -155,564 | |||
| Corporate and Financing | 277 | 30 | 38 | 41 | |
| Chemical | 23,091 | 27,416 | |||
| Downstream | 140,896 | 204,983 | |||
| Total | 334,629 | 398,675 | 276,692 | 178,574 | 255,583 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 21,308 | 36,479 | 15,775 | -20,030 | 14,442 |
| Energy Products | 12,142 | 14,966 | -346 | ||
| Specialty Products | 2,714 | 2,415 | 3,259 | ||
| Chemical Products | 1,637 | 3,543 | 6,989 | ||
| Corporate and Financing | -1,791 | -1,663 | -2,636 | -3,296 | -3,017 |
| Chemical | 1,963 | 592 | |||
| Downstream | -1,077 | 2,323 | |||
| Total | 36,010 | 55,740 | 23,041 | -22,440 | 14,340 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 206,366 | 206,459 | 209,272 | 216,017 | 246,931 |
| Energy Products | 74,460 | 73,565 | 64,630 | ||
| Corporate and Financing | 49,817 | 44,671 | 22,863 | 20,072 | 18,171 |
| Chemical Products | 34,675 | 33,217 | 31,250 | ||
| Specialty Products | 10,999 | 11,155 | 10,908 | ||
| Chemical | 38,059 | 36,920 | |||
| Downstream | 58,602 | 60,575 | |||
| Total | 376,317 | 369,067 | 338,923 | 332,750 | 362,597 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $147.28 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 631.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $130.80 | $114.67 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 12.6% | 28.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.5% | 24.9% |
| Downside Capture | -133.19 | 3.74 |
| Upside Capture | 35.85 | 34.43 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 6.2% | 40.7% |
XOM Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.03 | 0.06 | -0.04 | 0.05 | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| Up Beta | 1.18 | 1.34 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| Down Beta | 0.52 | 0.18 | 0.27 | 0.48 | 0.89 | 0.65 |
| Up Capture | 106% | 82% | 49% | 22% | 31% | 11% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 24 | 36 | 74 | 143 | 394 |
| Down Capture | -313% | -157% | -99% | -79% | 21% | 55% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 5 | 16 | 24 | 50 | 107 | 355 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 38.3% | 24.9% | 1.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 22.3% | 25.2% | 0.76 | 90.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 19.4% | 0.53 | 40.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 74.5% | 25.6% | 2.15 | 12.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 16.9% | 0.25 | 63.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.1% | 16.7% | 0.24 | 36.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.6% | 44.9% | -0.68 | 13.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 28.7% | 26.8% | 0.95 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 24.1% | 26.4% | 0.82 | 93.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.0% | 0.62 | 33.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.6% | 17.1% | 1.08 | 15.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.0% | 0.46 | 62.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 18.8% | 0.17 | 26.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.2% | 57.1% | 0.35 | 10.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 11.1% | 27.8% | 0.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 11.7% | 29.6% | 0.43 | 91.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.1% | 17.9% | 0.77 | 51.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.8% | 15.6% | 0.79 | 6.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 57.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.0% | 20.7% | 0.30 | 41.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.7% | 1.07 | 11.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 12182025 | 117.19 | 3,000 | 351,570 | 3,349,759 | Form |
| 2 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 12152025 | 118.75 | 3,000 | 356,250 | 3,750,600 | Form |
| 3 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 8252025 | 110.45 | 2,158 | 238,351 | 1,527,414 | Form |
| 4 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3182025 | 113.00 | 2,100 | 237,300 | 1,806,531 | Form |
| 5 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2052025 | 110.00 | 2,100 | 231,000 | 1,989,570 | Form |
XOM Trade Sentinel
Core Investment Debate
Operational Excellence vs. Macro Headwinds
BULL VIEW
XOM's superior, low-cost assets are driving historic production growth, generating significant free cash flow that can sustain shareholder returns regardless of price volatility.
CORE TENSION
Can record-breaking production volumes from advantaged assets (Guyana, Permian) offset the negative impact of softening global commodity prices and weakening downstream margins?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
NEUTRAL
The latest earnings report showed record production hitting 5.0 million BOE/day, but the stock fell as analysts focused on downward EPS revisions and weak international chemical earnings.
BEAR VIEW
As a price-taker, XOM's strong operational performance is irrelevant if a global slowdown or OPEC+ breakdown causes a commodity price crash, crushing revenue and earnings.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Product Solutions segment margins and FY26 production guidance. A decline greater than 10% in margins would be a major negative. |
Ongoing (Next 6 Months) | OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting Watch: Any change in production quotas. Statements suggesting a shift from cuts to a market share strategy would be a key negative signal. |
Anytime | Geopolitical Developments in Guyana Watch: Reports of Venezuelan naval incursions or attempts to interdict drilling ships in the Stabroek block. |
Mid-2026 | EPA Methane Rules Update Watch: Company disclosures on estimated compliance costs for the EPA's Waste Emissions Charge (WEC) on methane. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-09-03 | Barclays CEO Energy Power Conference Details: ExxonMobil participated in the Barclays conference, providing an update to the investment community on its operations and outlook. | Fell notably by -2.42% $113.69 -> $110.93 |
2025-10-31 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Announced strong Q3 earnings of $1.76 per share and record production in Guyana and the Permian. The company returned $9.4 billion to shareholders. | Muted (-0.29%) $113.69 -> $113.36 |
2025-12-09 | Corporate Plan Update Details: ExxonMobil held an event to update investors and analysts on its corporate plan, providing long-term strategic outlook and capital allocation priorities. | Rose significantly by 1.96% $115.98 -> $118.25 |
2026-01-09 | Geopolitical Development Details: CEO Darren Woods met with the U.S. President to discuss the future of the oil and gas industry in Venezuela, a key region for future growth and risk. | Modest 1.38% gain $122.91 -> $124.61 |
2026-01-30 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported adjusted EPS of $1.71 (beat) on record annual production. However, the stock reaction was muted due to weaker crude prices and significant margin compression in Chemical Products. | Flat (0.63%) $140.51 -> $141.40 |
2026-02-05 | Strategic Asset Purchase Details: ExxonMobil completed the $2.32 billion purchase of the 'One Guyana' FPSO vessel, taking full ownership of its key production asset in the Stabroek block ahead of schedule. | Modest 0.99% gain $147.59 -> $149.05 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock has spiking near-term volatility. While valuation is cheap and the moat is strong, the Neutral sentiment, low revenue visibility, and clear cyclical headwinds in downstream warrant a cautious initial position.
Diversification Alternatives
COP
SECTOROffers a more pure-play upstream exposure without the cyclical drag from downstream/chemical operations that is currently pressuring XOM. Valuation is also comparatively cheaper.
Core Thesis: A high-quality, low-cost producer focused on shareholder returns through disciplined capital allocation, with strong inventory in key U.S. unconventional basins.
CNQ
SECTORDemonstrates strong production growth and a disciplined financial policy with a focus on shareholder returns. Operates in a stable regulatory environment in North America.
Core Thesis: A diversified portfolio of long-life, low-decline assets, particularly in Canadian oil sands, generates consistent free cash flow through commodity cycles, supporting a growing dividend.
Stock Conviction
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew is exceptionally attractive at 3.5x. This is driven by a 'RESILIENT' competitive moat (due to widening structural advantages) and a strong sector backdrop, which assigns a high (70%) probability to the upside case. The stock is judged to be CHEAP, with a clear alpha driver in its low-cost production growth that provides a fundamental basis for potential re-rating, justifying an OVERWEIGHT rating.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityExxon Mobil's revenue is overwhelmingly dictated by global oil and gas prices (commodities), making its earnings and stock price inherently cyclical. The business strategy focuses on supply/demand dynamics and achieving the lowest cost of production to maximize profitability across the cycle.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis rests on XOM's superior, low-cost asset base, particularly in Guyana and the Permian basin. These assets allow the company to profitably grow production volumes even in a stable or moderately weak commodity price environment, generating significant free cash flow through the cycle.
Mechanism:
By focusing capital expenditures on projects with low breakeven costs (e.g., Guyana <$35/barrel), XOM can sustain high margins and shareholder returns (dividends/buybacks) regardless of volatile spot prices, differentiating it from higher-cost producers who must curtail activity.
Supporting Evidence:
- Production from advantaged assets in Guyana and the Permian is growing, with Q4 2025 production hitting a 40-year high at 5.0 million oil-equivalent barrels per day.
- The Stabroek block in Guyana is one of the lowest-cost new oil developments globally, providing a structural margin advantage.
- The company's breakeven portfolio price is below $40/bbl, ensuring cash flow generation in most macroeconomic scenarios.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is a significant downturn in global crude oil prices (e.g., below $60/bbl) caused by a global recession or a breakdown in OPEC+ production discipline. Despite XOM's low-cost position, a severe price drop would materially impact revenue, earnings, and cash flow, overriding operational successes.
Mechanism:
As a price taker, XOM has no control over its primary revenue driver. A sharp price decline would lead to immediate downward revisions of EPS estimates and could force a reduction in the pace of share buybacks, a key component of its shareholder return program.
Supporting Evidence:
- The company's primary bear case is explicitly a 'Commodity Price Crash <$60/bbl'.
- Analysts are already revising EPS estimates downward for 2026 and 2027, indicating sensitivity to a softening price outlook.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Upstream Production Volume | Guidance of ~3.8-3.9 Million BOE/day | This is the primary driver of the 'Alpha' thesis. Meeting or exceeding production targets validates execution and the value of advantaged assets. |
| Brent Crude Spot Price | Sustained price <$70/bbl | This is the trigger for the 'Anti-Alpha' risk. A breach of this level would signal a cyclical downturn and lead to significant negative EPS revisions. |
| Product Solutions Segment Margins | QoQ decline >10% | Weakness in this downstream segment, as noted in recent earnings, is a key near-term risk. Further margin compression would indicate a cyclical peak in refining and chemicals, dragging on overall earnings. |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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