Norfolk Southern (NSC)
Market Price (12/24/2025): $291.63 | Market Cap: $65.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation
Norfolk Southern (NSC)
Market Price (12/24/2025): $291.63Market Cap: $65.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Rail Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 39% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% | Key risksNSC key risks include [1] severe financial and reputational liabilities from operational incidents, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 39% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% |
| Key risksNSC key risks include [1] severe financial and reputational liabilities from operational incidents, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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Here are the key points for why Norfolk Southern (NSC) stock moved in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 24, 2025: 1. Union Pacific's Proposed Acquisition of Norfolk Southern. Union Pacific announced plans to acquire Norfolk Southern in a stock and cash transaction around July 29, 2025. This deal implied a value of $320 per share for Norfolk Southern, representing a 25% premium over its 30-trading day volume-weighted average price as of July 16, 2025, and would significantly impact the stock price during the period.2. Quarterly Dividend Announcement. On July 22, 2025, Norfolk Southern announced a quarterly dividend of $1.35 per share, payable on August 20, 2025. This announcement led to an 8.2% jump in the company's shares during pre-market trading, contributing to positive momentum as the specified period began.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.4% change in NSC stock from 9/23/2025 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 13.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 9232025 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 290.68 | 291.88 | 0.41% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12178.00 | 12230.00 | 0.43% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.51% | 24.22% | -11.96% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.52 | 22.11 | 13.26% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 225.00 | 224.40 | 0.27% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.41% |
Market Drivers
9/23/2025 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NSC | 0.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.7% | 32.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 2.6% | 49.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.5% change in NSC stock from 6/24/2025 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 27.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 6242025 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 254.98 | 291.88 | 14.47% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12112.00 | 12230.00 | 0.97% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.40% | 24.22% | -11.62% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.37 | 22.11 | 27.30% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 226.10 | 224.40 | 0.75% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.46% |
Market Drivers
6/24/2025 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NSC | 14.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.7% | 27.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 8.7% | 41.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.4% change in NSC stock from 12/23/2024 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 22.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 12232024 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 230.84 | 291.88 | 26.45% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12172.00 | 12230.00 | 0.48% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.85% | 24.22% | 22.02% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.61 | 22.11 | 2.32% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 226.20 | 224.40 | 0.80% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.44% |
Market Drivers
12/23/2024 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NSC | 26.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.7% | 63.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 19.1% | 71.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.3% change in NSC stock from 12/24/2022 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 33.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12242022 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 231.05 | 291.88 | 26.33% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12360.00 | 12230.00 | -1.05% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.21% | 24.22% | -7.61% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.63 | 22.11 | 32.97% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 233.20 | 224.40 | 3.77% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.15% |
Market Drivers
12/24/2023 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NSC | 30.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.4% | 50.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 42.3% | 62.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NSC Return | 25% | 27% | -16% | -2% | 2% | 27% | 70% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 17% | -7% | 12% | -9% | 6% | 48% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NSC Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 33% | 42% | 50% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 71% | 50% | 38% | 54% | 44% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NSC Max Drawdown | -38% | -2% | -30% | -24% | -10% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -7% | -18% | -9% | -11% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSX, UNP, CNI, CP. See NSC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/23/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NSC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 703 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 780 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to UNP, CSX, CP, CNI, NSC
In The Past
Norfolk Southern's stock fell -38.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -38.0% loss requires a 61.3% gain to breakeven.
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- The FedEx or UPS of rail freight.
- Amazon for industrial rail freight.
- A utility company, but for moving goods by train.
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- Intermodal Transportation: Moving shipping containers and highway trailers containing diverse goods between major distribution centers.
- Automotive Logistics: Transporting finished automobiles, light trucks, and automotive components for manufacturers.
- Coal Transportation: Hauling thermal coal for power generation and metallurgical coal for steel production.
- Chemical Transportation: Shipping a wide range of industrial chemicals, plastics, and petroleum products.
- Agricultural Products Transportation: Moving grain, fertilizers, food products, and other agricultural commodities.
- Metals & Construction Materials Transportation: Transporting steel, aluminum, aggregates, cement, lumber, and other building materials.
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Norfolk Southern (NSC) Major Customers
Norfolk Southern (NSC) is a Class I freight railroad that primarily sells its transportation services to other companies, rather than individuals. Its customer base is highly diversified across numerous industries throughout its network, and no single customer is typically disclosed as accounting for a significant portion (e.g., 10% or more) of its total revenue in public filings.
Given the diversified nature of a railroad's customer base, the following are examples of major public companies that operate within the primary industrial segments served by Norfolk Southern. These companies represent the types of significant shippers that rely on Norfolk Southern for the transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods.
- Intermodal / Logistics: Norfolk Southern moves a vast amount of intermodal freight for major logistics providers, shipping lines, and large retailers.
- J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)
- Schneider National (SNDR)
- Walmart Inc. (WMT) (as a major beneficial cargo owner that utilizes intermodal services via logistics partners)
- Coal (Utilities & Steel): Norfolk Southern transports coal for both domestic electricity generation and metallurgical purposes.
- Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)
- United States Steel Corporation (X)
- Automotive: The company transports finished vehicles and automotive parts for major manufacturers.
- General Motors Company (GM)
- Ford Motor Company (F)
- Chemicals: A wide range of chemical products, including plastics, industrial chemicals, and refined petroleum products, are transported.
- Dow Inc. (DOW)
- LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB)
- Agriculture & Food Products: Norfolk Southern ships grains, fertilizers, and various food and beverage products.
- Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)
- Metals & Construction: Raw materials and finished products for the metals and construction industries are significant freight.
- Nucor Corporation (NUE)
- Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)
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- Wabtec Corporation (WAB)
- Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
- The Greenbrier Companies (GBX)
- Trinity Industries (TRN)
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Here is the current management team for Norfolk Southern Corporation:Mark R. George, President and Chief Executive Officer
Mark R. George was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Norfolk Southern in September 2024. Prior to this, he served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Norfolk Southern since 2019. He has over 35 years of experience in financial management, strategy, and business development across various global industries. Before joining Norfolk Southern, George held successive leadership roles at United Technologies Corporation and its subsidiaries, including six years as the regional CFO for Otis Elevator Company in Asia. From 2008 to 2019, he served as the Global CFO for both Otis Elevator Company and Carrier Corporation. He also served as interim CEO of Otis Elevator in 2017. George is on the Board of Directors for Trane Technologies plc and Junior Achievement of Georgia.
Jason Zampi, Acting Chief Financial Officer
Jason Zampi was appointed Acting Chief Financial Officer of Norfolk Southern in September 2024. He joined Norfolk Southern in 2011 and has held various roles of increasing responsibility within the company's finance and accounting functions, including Senior Vice President Finance & Treasurer, Vice President of Financial Planning & Analysis, Vice President & Controller, and Assistant Vice President Corporate Accounting. Zampi focuses on cost management, long-range planning, and developing financial roadmaps for the company.
Ed Elkins, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer
Ed Elkins is the Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer at Norfolk Southern Corporation. He has had a career spanning over 35 years with Norfolk Southern, starting as a Road Brakeman in 1988. His diverse experience includes serving as a Conductor, Locomotive Engineer, and Relief Yardmaster before spending two decades in Intermodal Marketing. In 2016, Elkins was named Group Vice President of Chemicals Marketing, and in 2018, he was promoted to Vice President of Industrial Products. He assumed his current role as Chief Commercial Officer in 2021, leading the company's Intermodal, Automotive, and Industrial Products business divisions, and managing Real Estate, Industrial Development, Short Line Marketing, Field Sales, and Customer Logistics business groups. Elkins serves as Vice Chair of the Georgia Chamber of Commerce and on the boards of directors of the East Lake Foundation, National Association of Manufacturers, and TTX Company.
Annie Adams, Chief Human Resources Officer
Annie Adams is the Chief Human Resources Officer (CHRO) at Norfolk Southern Corporation, a position she assumed in December 2024 at the request of the newly appointed CEO. She joined Norfolk Southern in 2001 and has over two decades of leadership experience. She previously served as Executive Vice President & Chief Transformation Officer until March 2024, overseeing Human Resources, Labor Relations, Corporate Communications, Information Technology, Sustainability, and Corporate Giving. Adams has successfully managed culture change, the relocation and design of Norfolk Southern’s headquarters, and national rail labor negotiations. Before her time at Norfolk Southern, she was a Product Manager at Great Bridge, LLC, and founded The Ultimate Accessory, where she developed and sold a customized database application to over 150 businesses. Adams also serves on the boards of the Woodruff Arts Center and the Midtown Improvement District in Atlanta, and the Board of Directors for Specialty Building Products.
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Norfolk Southern (NSC) faces several key risks inherent to its business as a Class I railroad. Up to three significant risks include operational incidents, regulatory challenges, and market segment vulnerabilities coupled with capital-intensive infrastructure.
1. Operational Incidents and Hazardous Material Transportation
Norfolk Southern faces substantial risks from operational incidents on its network, which can severely hinder its ability to provide rail transportation services. These risks encompass mainline accidents, the discharge of hazardous materials, disruptions due to climate-related events, and technology outages. Such incidents can lead to significant financial liabilities, lost revenues, and reputational damage, potentially attracting heightened legislative and regulatory scrutiny. The transportation of hazardous materials, a statutory obligation for common carriers by rail, particularly exposes the company to substantial costs and claims should accidents or environmental damage occur, with potential liabilities exceeding insurance coverage.
2. Regulatory Challenges and Compliance Costs
The rail industry is subject to stringent regulations, and any alterations in these policies can significantly impact Norfolk Southern's operations. Efforts to increase federal economic regulation of the rail industry could result in higher compliance costs and operational restrictions. The company's financial position, operational results, and liquidity could be materially adversely affected by an inability to comply with new or additional laws, regulations, or operating protocols.
3. Market Segment Vulnerabilities and Capital-Intensive Infrastructure
Norfolk Southern's business is characterized by a reliance on capital-intensive infrastructure, requiring continuous investment for maintenance and upgrades, which can strain financial resources and impact profitability. Furthermore, the company faces persistent challenges within key market segments. The coal sector continues to experience pressure from declining commodity prices and a shift towards natural gas and renewables. The automotive and intermodal businesses are also projected to encounter headwinds, with a competitive truckload market challenging Norfolk Southern's pricing power and market share. Fluctuating fuel prices and general economic downturns also pose a threat to demand for transportation services and, consequently, to revenue streams.
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Autonomous Long-Haul Trucking
The emergence of autonomous long-haul trucking represents a clear potential threat to Norfolk Southern's intermodal and long-haul freight business. While still in various stages of testing and regulatory approval, several companies (e.g., Waymo Via, Aurora, Kodiak Robotics) are actively developing and piloting Level 4 autonomous truck technology, with routes already being tested on public roads. This technology promises to significantly reduce the operational costs of trucking, primarily by eliminating or substantially reducing the need for human drivers and potentially allowing for near 24/7 operation. This could narrow or eliminate the cost advantage that intermodal rail traditionally holds for long-haul shipments, especially as it addresses the persistent driver shortage in the trucking industry. If autonomous trucks can offer comparable or lower costs, along with increased speed and flexibility for door-to-door delivery, they could divert significant freight volumes from rail, particularly for time-sensitive goods currently moved via intermodal.
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Norfolk Southern's main products and services primarily revolve around freight rail transportation. The company is a Class I freight railroad operating across the Southeast, East, and Midwest United States, facilitating the rail transport of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods. Their services include hauling diverse commodities such as coal, chemicals, agriculture products, consumer goods, metals, construction materials, automotive components, paper, clay, and forest products. A significant portion of their business also comes from intermodal services, which involve moving trailers and containers on railroad freight cars. The addressable market for Norfolk Southern's main products and services is the **United States Rail Freight Transport Market**. Market Size (Region: U.S.):- The U.S. Rail Freight Transport Market is estimated at approximately **USD 71.77 billion in 2025**, with a projected growth to USD 84.79 billion by 2030, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.39%.
- Another estimate values the Rail Transportation market in the U.S. at **$103.0 billion in 2025**.
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Norfolk Southern (NSC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a combination of increased freight volumes, enhanced operational efficiency, strategic infrastructure investments, and disciplined pricing strategies.
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Volume Growth Across Diverse Freight Segments: Norfolk Southern anticipates revenue growth driven by increased freight volumes, particularly within its intermodal and merchandise segments. The company reported overall volume increases in recent quarters, including 7% year-over-year volume growth in Q3 2024 and 5% for the full year 2024 (excluding fuel surcharge impacts). Analysts project strong import and export demand to further fuel intermodal growth in 2025. Additionally, improvements in agricultural shipments have contributed to volume gains.
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Enhanced Operational Efficiency and Service Excellence: A core driver of future revenue growth is Norfolk Southern's commitment to improving operational efficiency and service quality. The company has implemented initiatives such as the "Better Way" strategy and PSR 2.0, leading to improvements in metrics like car velocity, train speed, and terminal dwell. These operational enhancements aim to create a more competitive service platform, attract new business, and enable the company to capture increased market share by providing reliable and efficient transportation services.
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Strategic Investments in Infrastructure and Technology: Norfolk Southern plans significant investments in its infrastructure and technology, including approximately $2.2 billion in 2025. These investments are designed to enhance safety, improve operational efficiency, and expand intermodal train capacity, thereby supporting future volume growth and service capabilities. The integration of AI technology is also a focus to bolster both safety and efficiency.
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Pricing Discipline and Revenue Per Unit (RPU) Optimization: While external factors like fuel surcharges can impact overall revenue per unit (RPU), Norfolk Southern has demonstrated an ability to achieve RPU growth excluding fuel. The company reported a 2% increase in RPU less fuel in Q4 2024, marking a record and representing 38 out of 39 consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth in this metric. This indicates an ongoing focus on pricing discipline and optimizing the revenue generated per unit of freight, particularly in segments like industrial products and automotive.
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Share Repurchases
- Norfolk Southern's Board of Directors authorized a new $10 billion stock repurchase program, effective April 1, 2022, with no expiration date.
- The company repurchased $3.11 billion in shares in 2022 and $622 million in 2023.
- In the first three months of 2025, Norfolk Southern repurchased 1.0 million shares of common stock at a cost of $250 million. The company had $6.9 billion remaining in its authorized share repurchase program as of December 2024 and aims to surpass $10 billion in annual buybacks by the third year following a July 2025 announcement.
Share Issuance
- Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern announced an agreement in July 2025 to combine, with Union Pacific set to acquire Norfolk Southern in a stock and cash transaction.
- As part of this transaction, Union Pacific will issue approximately 225 million common shares to Norfolk Southern shareholders, who will receive 1.0 Union Pacific common share and $88.82 in cash for each Norfolk Southern share. This represents 27% ownership in the combined company for Norfolk Southern shareholders. The transaction is targeted for completion by early 2027.
Outbound Investments
- In March 2024, Norfolk Southern completed the acquisition of a 337-mile railway line extending from Cincinnati, Ohio, to Chattanooga, Tennessee, from the Cincinnati Southern Railway (CSR), which it had previously operated under a lease. This acquisition is expected to increase operational efficiency and offer synergies.
Capital Expenditures
- Norfolk Southern completed $1 billion in infrastructure improvements throughout its 22-state network in 2024.
- Payments for property additions (capital expenditures) in 2024 amounted to $2.381 billion.
- For 2025, the company plans to invest in infrastructure, technology, and customer partnerships to support long-term economic growth and supply chain efficiency, with over $350 million secured through public-private partnerships to reduce blocked crossings and enhance mobility. Capital expenditures in 2024 primarily focused on safety projects, track upgrades, and communications and signals work, including five digital train inspection portals, 313 grade crossing protection warning systems, and the replacement of 558 track miles of rail and 2.1 million ties.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to NSC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 17.7% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.3% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 6.3% | 6.3% | -0.4% |
| 04302023 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -8.0% | 22.0% | -8.0% |
| 10312022 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.5% | -14.4% | -17.2% |
| 04302022 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -10.3% | -19.6% | -21.1% |
| 03312020 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 49.4% | 87.4% | -4.1% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for Norfolk Southern
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 98.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 67.8 |
| Rev LTM | 15,029 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,556 |
| FCF LTM | 2,393 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,524 |
| CFO LTM | 5,489 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,086 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 37.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 38.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 67.8 |
| P/S | 4.8 |
| P/EBIT | 13.4 |
| P/E | 19.7 |
| P/CFO | 14.3 |
| Total Yield | 7.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 19.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -59.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intermodal | 3,090 | 3,681 | 3,163 | 2,654 | 2,824 |
| Agriculture, forest and consumer products | 2,530 | 2,493 | 2,251 | 2,116 | 2,256 |
| Chemicals | 2,054 | 2,148 | 1,951 | 1,809 | 2,092 |
| Coal | 1,713 | 1,733 | 1,310 | 1,047 | 1,669 |
| Metals and construction | 1,634 | 1,652 | 1,562 | 1,333 | 1,461 |
| Automotive | 1,135 | 1,038 | 905 | 830 | 994 |
| Total | 12,156 | 12,745 | 11,142 | 9,789 | 11,296 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $291.88 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 65.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/02/1982 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $287.49 | $262.93 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 1.5% | 11.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 13.6% | 22.7% |
| Downside Capture | 38.65 | 55.06 |
| Upside Capture | 33.74 | 69.59 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 31.9% | 63.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.41 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.74 | 0.83 |
| Up Beta | 0.43 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.56 | 0.82 | 0.89 |
| Down Beta | 0.48 | 0.54 | 0.58 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Up Capture | 67% | 14% | 39% | 52% | 48% | 48% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 19 | 33 | 68 | 128 | 389 |
| Down Capture | 22% | 42% | 31% | 26% | 71% | 95% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 22 | 29 | 57 | 119 | 360 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of NSC With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSC | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 25.4% | 20.4% | 18.8% | 72.9% | 9.0% | 3.7% | -11.4% |
| Annualized Volatility | 22.9% | 18.8% | 19.5% | 19.2% | 15.3% | 17.2% | 35.0% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.76 | 2.72 | 0.36 | 0.05 | -0.14 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 70.9% | 63.1% | -1.8% | 24.5% | 59.2% | 14.2% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of NSC With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSC | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 7.1% | 13.8% | 14.8% | 18.9% | 11.8% | 4.7% | 35.5% |
| Annualized Volatility | 24.9% | 17.2% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.9% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.27 | 0.64 | 0.70 | 0.98 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 0.62 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 68.7% | 56.1% | 7.7% | 18.8% | 51.5% | 17.4% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of NSC With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSC | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 14.8% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 15.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 69.1% |
| Annualized Volatility | 27.9% | 19.9% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.54 | 0.60 | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.31 | 0.23 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 75.7% | 66.0% | 0.9% | 27.9% | 54.7% | 14.9% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | -1.2% | -0.8% | 1.4% |
| 7/29/2025 | -3.0% | -2.4% | -2.9% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.9% | 1.5% | 9.5% |
| 1/29/2025 | 1.8% | 0.2% | -3.5% |
| 10/22/2024 | 4.9% | 2.2% | 5.2% |
| 7/25/2024 | 10.9% | 10.6% | 8.6% |
| 4/9/2024 | 1.3% | -1.9% | -6.6% |
| 1/26/2024 | -1.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 2.1% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -1.7% | -6.6% |
| Max Positive | 10.9% | 10.6% | 17.0% |
| Max Negative | -5.3% | -3.9% | -12.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4232025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2102025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10222024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2052024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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