Lennar (LEN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $112.255 | Market Cap: $28.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding
Lennar (LEN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $112.255Market Cap: $28.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Homebuilding
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.4% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more. | Key risksLEN key risks include [1] significant margin compression and eroding profitability driven by the need to offer increased sales incentives and price reductions. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.4% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.1% |
| Key risksLEN key risks include [1] significant margin compression and eroding profitability driven by the need to offer increased sales incentives and price reductions. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LEN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. Disappointing Q4 2025 Earnings and Weak Guidance**
Lennar Corporation reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.03 for its fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, which ended November 30, 2025. This figure missed analyst consensus estimates ranging from $2.21 to $2.23. Furthermore, the company provided a disappointing outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, forecasting lower average sales prices and gross margins than anticipated.
**2. Challenging Housing Market Conditions**
The broader housing market during the period from August to December 2025 was characterized by significant challenges. These included persistent affordability issues, fragile consumer confidence, and overall weak buyer demand. Lennar's executives acknowledged operating in a "stubbornly difficult housing market."
**3. Margin Compression Due to Increased Incentives and Price Reductions**
In an effort to stimulate sales amidst the soft market conditions, Lennar significantly increased its sales incentives, maintaining them at approximately 14%. The average sales price of homes delivered in Q4 2025 declined by about 10% year-over-year to $386,000. This strategy led to a contraction in gross margins on home sales, which fell to 17% in Q4 2025, missing Wall Street's expectations, and were projected to decline further to 15-16% in Q1 2026.
**4. Year-over-Year Decline in Key Financial Metrics**
Lennar experienced a year-over-year decrease in several key financial metrics. Total revenues for fiscal year 2025 were $34.2 billion, down from $35.4 billion in fiscal year 2024. Specifically for Q4 2025, net income attributable to common shareholders saw a substantial decline of over 55% compared to the same period in the previous year.
**5. Analyst Downgrades**
Following the mixed Q4 earnings report and the cautious guidance for the upcoming quarter, several financial analysts downgraded Lennar's stock. Notably, Evercore ISI downgraded Lennar from an "In Line" rating to "Underperform" and reduced its price target. RBC Capital also downgraded the stock to "Underperform," citing the weak Q4 performance and Q1 guidance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LEN Return | 38% | 54% | -21% | 67% | -7% | -12% | 129% |
| Peers Return | 20% | 51% | -22% | 90% | 6% | 5% | 195% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LEN Win Rate | 75% | 75% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 75% | 42% | 65% | 57% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LEN Max Drawdown | -47% | -4% | -44% | 0% | -7% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -53% | -4% | -42% | -0% | -7% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DHI, PHM, NVR, TOL, MTH. See LEN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LEN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 364 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 142.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -47.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 581 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -93.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1441.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3,239 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to DHI, PHM, NVR, J, TOL
In The Past
Lennar's stock fell -44.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/10/2021. A -44.8% loss requires a 81.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LEN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 10102025 | LEN | Lennar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.0% | -1.0% | -3.9% |
| 03312022 | LEN | Lennar | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.7% | 31.9% | -20.2% |
| 09302018 | LEN | Lennar | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.3% | 20.0% | -18.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 10102025 | LEN | Lennar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.0% | -1.0% | -3.9% |
| 03312022 | LEN | Lennar | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.7% | 31.9% | -20.2% |
| 09302018 | LEN | Lennar | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.3% | 20.0% | -18.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lennar
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 130.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 22.8 |
| Rev LTM | 14,250 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,589 |
| FCF LTM | 1,105 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,652 |
| CFO LTM | 1,157 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,720 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | -3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 22.8 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 8.4 |
| P/E | 10.9 |
| P/CFO | 12.2 |
| Total Yield | 10.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 65.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 2.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/16/2025 | -4.5% | ||
| 9/19/2025 | -4.2% | -1.0% | -0.7% |
| 6/17/2025 | -1.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% |
| 3/20/2025 | -4.0% | -1.7% | -13.6% |
| 12/18/2024 | -5.2% | -5.0% | -6.7% |
| 9/19/2024 | -5.3% | -4.9% | -1.6% |
| 6/17/2024 | -5.0% | -4.7% | 9.0% |
| 3/13/2024 | -7.6% | -1.1% | -3.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 14 |
| # Negative | 14 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 5.8% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -3.7% | -4.9% |
| Max Positive | 13.8% | 31.7% | 38.8% |
| Max Negative | -7.6% | -5.0% | -13.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 10032025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 7012025 | 10-Q 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 4042025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1232025 | 10-K 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10022024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 6282024 | 10-Q 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 3292024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1262024 | 10-K 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 9292023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6302023 | 10-Q 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 4042023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1262023 | 10-K 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 10042022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 7012022 | 10-Q 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 4012022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1282022 | 10-K 11/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |