Lennar (LEN)


Market Price (10/5/2026): $80.5 | Market Cap: $19.7 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding

Lennar (LEN)


Market Price (10/5/2026): $80.5
Market Cap: $19.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Homebuilding

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.0%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.3 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -90%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 270x

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13%

Key risks
LEN key risks include [1] significant margin compression and eroding profitability driven by the need to offer increased sales incentives and price reductions.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.0%
1 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.3 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -90%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 270x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13%
7 Key risks
LEN key risks include [1] significant margin compression and eroding profitability driven by the need to offer increased sales incentives and price reductions.

LEN in ETFs

Weight = LEN's share of each fund

SPY0.02%
VOO0.03%
IVV0.02%
VTI0.02%
ITOT0.02%
IWB0.02%
RSP0.21%
VTV0.07%
+25 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 10/1/2026

Lennar (LEN) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Disappointing Fiscal Q3 2026 Results and Reduced Outlook. Lennar reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.23 for its fiscal third quarter ended August 31, 2026, missing the analyst consensus of $1.29. Quarterly revenue also fell short, coming in at $8.05 billion against an expected $8.23 billion. Following these results, the company lowered its full-year 2026 delivery guidance to a range of 80,000–81,000 homes, down from the previously anticipated 82,000–83,000 homes.

2. Significant Gross Margin Compression and Increased Sales Incentives. Homebuilding gross margins declined to 15.8% in fiscal Q3 2026, a notable decrease from 17.5% in the prior year period. This contraction was primarily attributed to lower revenue per square foot and higher land costs. To maintain sales volume in a challenging market, Lennar utilized approximately 12% in sales incentives and base-price adjustments, which contributed to a 3% decrease in the average delivered home price to $372,000.

Show more
Updated on 10/1/2026

Lennar (LEN) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Disappointing Fiscal Q3 2026 Results and Reduced Outlook. Lennar reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.23 for its fiscal third quarter ended August 31, 2026, missing the analyst consensus of $1.29. Quarterly revenue also fell short, coming in at $8.05 billion against an expected $8.23 billion. Following these results, the company lowered its full-year 2026 delivery guidance to a range of 80,000–81,000 homes, down from the previously anticipated 82,000–83,000 homes.

2. Significant Gross Margin Compression and Increased Sales Incentives. Homebuilding gross margins declined to 15.8% in fiscal Q3 2026, a notable decrease from 17.5% in the prior year period. This contraction was primarily attributed to lower revenue per square foot and higher land costs. To maintain sales volume in a challenging market, Lennar utilized approximately 12% in sales incentives and base-price adjustments, which contributed to a 3% decrease in the average delivered home price to $372,000.

3. Elevated Mortgage Rates and Worsening Housing Affordability. A significant macroeconomic headwind was the continued surge in mortgage rates during the period. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from approximately 6.6% in June to around 7% by late September 2026, with some reports indicating rates as high as 7.30% to 7.38% by the end of September. This increase severely impacted housing affordability and consumer confidence, leading to a 9% year-over-year decrease in new home orders for Lennar in fiscal Q3 2026.

4. Negative Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Revisions. The company's missed earnings and lowered guidance led to a deterioration in analyst sentiment. Several firms either reiterated bearish ratings or cut their price targets for Lennar. For example, Citigroup cut its price target from $104 to $88 on July 15, 2026, and further to $85 on September 21, 2026. Additionally, Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with an "Underweight" rating and a $65 price target on October 1, 2026, citing margin concerns.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -11.3% change in LEN stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)630202610042026Change
Stock Price ($)89.9579.81-11.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)33,17533,1750.0%
Net Income Margin (%)5.4%5.4%0.0%
P/E Multiple12.310.9-11.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2442440.0%
Cumulative Contribution-11.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2026 to 10/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
LEN-11.3% 
Market (SPY)3.1%41.1%
Sector (XLY)-6.2%42.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -7.1% change in LEN stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)331202610042026Change
Stock Price ($)85.8779.81-7.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)34,18733,175-3.0%
Net Income Margin (%)6.1%5.4%-11.3%
P/E Multiple10.410.94.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2522443.2%
Cumulative Contribution-7.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 10/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
LEN-7.1% 
Market (SPY)18.6%42.2%
Sector (XLY)1.2%48.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The -35.4% change in LEN stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)930202510042026Change
Stock Price ($)123.5579.81-35.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)35,37233,175-6.2%
Net Income Margin (%)9.2%5.4%-41.4%
P/E Multiple9.910.910.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2602446.5%
Cumulative Contribution-35.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 10/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
LEN-35.4% 
Market (SPY)16.5%33.6%
Sector (XLY)-7.6%43.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -25.3% change in LEN stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -53.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)930202310042026Change
Stock Price ($)106.8979.81-25.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)33,44033,175-0.8%
Net Income Margin (%)11.7%5.4%-53.8%
P/E Multiple7.810.940.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)28324415.7%
Cumulative Contribution-25.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2023 to 10/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
LEN-25.3% 
Market (SPY)86.2%36.4%
Sector (XLY)39.8%44.5%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
LEN Return54%-21%67%-7%-23%-19%17%
Peers Return51%-22%90%6%-0%-4%124%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%12%104%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LEN Win Rate75%42%58%67%33%56% 
Peers Win Rate75%42%65%57%45%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%44% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LEN Max Drawdown-16%-44%-22%-29%-28%-37% 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-42%-21%-26%-25%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DHI, PHM, NVR, TOL, MTH. See LEN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/2/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventLENS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-15.0%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven17.7%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven111 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-18.9%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven23.3%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven20 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-41.8%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven71.9%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven308 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-58.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven140.0%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven121 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-17.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven21.4%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven16 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-29.8%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven42.4%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven488 days62 days

Compare to DHI, PHM, NVR, TOL, MTH

In The Past

Lennar's stock fell -15.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventLENS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-41.8%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven71.9%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven308 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-58.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven140.0%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven121 days140 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-29.8%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven42.4%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven488 days62 days
2013 Taper Tantrum
  % Loss-21.8%-0.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.9%0.2%
  Time to Breakeven154 days1 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-31.7%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven46.3%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven105 days123 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-32.3%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven47.6%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven189 days125 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-79.2%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven379.9%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven299 days1085 days
Summer 2007 Credit Crunch
  % Loss-28.3%-8.6%
  % Gain to Breakeven39.5%9.5%
  Time to Breakeven1800 days47 days

Compare to DHI, PHM, NVR, TOL, MTH

In The Past

Lennar's stock fell -15.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Lennar (LEN)

Lennar Corporation (LEN) is a leading homebuilder operating primarily under the Lennar brand across the United States. Its core business focuses on the construction and sale of various single-family homes, including both attached and detached properties. The company is also actively involved in the purchase, development, and sale of residential land, which forms the foundation for its housing projects.

Beyond its primary homebuilding activities, Lennar offers an integrated suite of financial services to support homebuyers, including residential mortgage financing, title insurance, and closing services. The company further diversifies its operations through a multifamily segment, which involves the development, construction, and management of rental properties, and engages in fund investment activities. It also originates and sells securitization commercial mortgage loans.

Lennar serves a broad spectrum of the U.S. housing market, catering to diverse customer needs. Its primary customers include first-time homebuyers, individuals looking to move up to a larger home, active adult communities, and the luxury home segment. The company operates through distinct geographic segments across the East, Central, Texas, and West regions of the United States, highlighting its widespread national presence.

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The General Motors of new home construction.

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  • Homebuilding: Construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes.
  • Residential Land Development and Sales: Purchase, development, and sale of residential land.
  • Multifamily Rental Property Development and Management: Development, construction, and management of multifamily rental properties.
  • Residential Mortgage Financing: Providing residential mortgage loans for home buyers.
  • Title Insurance and Closing Services: Offering title insurance and closing services for real estate transactions.
  • Commercial Mortgage Loan Origination and Securitization: Originating and selling securitized commercial mortgage loans.
  • Fund Investment Activity: Engaging in various fund investment activities.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Lennar Corporation (LEN) primarily sells its homes and services to individual homebuyers.

The categories of customers it serves include:

  • First-time homebuyers
  • Move-up homebuyers
  • Active adult homebuyers

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Stuart Miller, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Stuart Miller is the son of co-founder Leonard Miller, who took Lennar public in 1971. He began working at Lennar Corporation in the 1980s. Miller became the Chief Executive Officer of Lennar in 1997. He assumed the role of Executive Chairman in April 2018. From 1997 until 2005, he served as Chairman of the Board of LNR Property Corporation, a commercial real estate entity that was spun off from Lennar and later sold in February 2005.

Diane Bessette, Chief Financial Officer
Diane Bessette joined Lennar Corporation in 1995. During her tenure, she held various senior leadership positions, including Corporate Controller from 1997 to 2008. She was named Vice President in 2000 and served as Treasurer from February 2008 until April 2024. Bessette was appointed Chief Financial Officer in April 2018.

Katherine Lee Martin, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary
Katherine Lee Martin serves as Lennar's Chief Legal Officer and Secretary. She is part of a leadership team composed of innovative leaders and industry experts.

Fred Rothman, Chief Operating Officer
Fred Rothman is the Chief Operating Officer of Lennar Corporation. He has also held roles such as President of Eastern Homebuilding Operations and Regional President at Lennar.

Bruce Gross, Chief Executive Officer, Lennar Financial Services
Bruce Gross is the Chief Executive Officer of Lennar Financial Services, which provides mortgage financing, title insurance, and homeowners insurance. He previously served as Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Lennar. Since joining Lennar in 1997, Gross has been instrumental in the company's strategic and operating initiatives, including multiple acquisitions, contributing significantly to Lennar's growth. Before joining Lennar, he helped launch Pacific Greystone Corporation and supported its growth through an initial public offering and its subsequent acquisition by Lennar.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Lennar's business are primarily driven by macroeconomic factors impacting the housing market and internal operational pressures.

  1. Interest Rate Sensitivity and Housing Affordability: High mortgage rates significantly dampen new-home demand and overall affordability, directly impacting Lennar's home sales and its financial services segment. A sustained period of elevated rates could further curtail sales volumes and reduce profitability, as evidenced by Lennar's recent performance lagging the S&P 500 due to higher mortgage rates squeezing demand. Higher interest rates also increase Lennar's costs for financing construction projects and land acquisition.
  2. Cyclical Downturns and Economic Uncertainty: The homebuilding industry is inherently cyclical and highly sensitive to broader economic conditions, employment levels, and consumer sentiment. A significant economic slowdown, a spike in unemployment, or geopolitical uncertainty could lead to reduced consumer confidence, increased home sale cancellations, and decreased demand for new homes.
  3. Margin Pressure from Costs and Incentives: Lennar faces ongoing pressure on its gross margins due to various factors. These include the use of buyer incentives and mortgage-rate buy-downs to stimulate sales in a challenging market, which can erode profitability. Additionally, rising material costs, labor shortages, and increasing land costs can inflate construction expenses and delay deliveries, further compressing margins.

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The emergence of advanced construction technologies, such as large-scale 3D printing for homes and highly automated modular building systems, presents a clear emerging threat to traditional homebuilders like Lennar. These technologies promise to significantly reduce construction time, labor costs, and material waste, potentially enabling faster, more affordable, and more sustainable housing production. If these methods achieve widespread adoption and scalability, they could disrupt established construction practices and create a competitive disadvantage for companies relying primarily on conventional stick-built construction methods.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Lennar Corporation operates as a homebuilder and provides financial services, primarily in the United States. Its main addressable markets in the U.S. include residential construction, mortgage financing, and title insurance.

  • Residential Construction Market (U.S.): The U.S. residential construction market size is estimated at USD 1.41 trillion in 2026, with projections to reach USD 1.76 trillion by 2031, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.53% between 2026 and 2031. For context, residential construction represented 54.3% of the total U.S. construction market in 2025, which was valued at USD 2.2 trillion.
  • Mortgage Financing Market (U.S.): The total single-family mortgage origination volume in the U.S. is expected to reach $2.2 trillion in 2026, up from an estimated $2.0 trillion in 2025.
  • Title Insurance Market (U.S.): The market size of the Title Insurance in the U.S. is estimated at $17.1 billion in 2025. The industry generated $4.5 billion in title insurance premiums during the second quarter of 2025.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Lennar (LEN) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies aimed at navigating the current housing market and leveraging operational strengths:

  1. Increased Home Deliveries and Volume Focus: Lennar has communicated a clear objective to increase its volume of home deliveries. For instance, the company is targeting approximately 85,000 home deliveries in 2026. This focus on consistent and high-volume production is a direct driver of revenue growth, as more units sold translate to higher top-line figures.
  2. Enhanced Operational Efficiency and Cost Management: The company is prioritizing operational improvements, including reducing direct construction costs and improving cycle times for home construction. These efficiencies, such as an 11% year-over-year reduction in cycle time for single-family detached homes to an all-time low of 122 days in Q1 2026, allow Lennar to maintain competitiveness and offer homes at more attractive price points, thereby stimulating demand and supporting revenue growth.
  3. Leveraging an Asset-Light Land Strategy: Lennar continues to expand its "asset-light" approach to land acquisition through off-balance sheet land banking relationships. This strategy reduces capital intensity and risk, improves inventory turnover (from 1.5% to 1.7% year-over-year in Q1 2025 and 2.2x to 2.5x quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026), and enables the company to adapt more quickly to market conditions, supporting sustained homebuilding volume and revenue.
  4. Technology-Driven Sales and Customer Engagement: Investments in technology are improving customer engagement quality scores (up 7%) and increasing the efficiency of the sales process, including an 11% quarter-over-quarter increase in kept sales appointments. This digital transformation aims to convert online interest into actual home sales more effectively, directly contributing to revenue generation.
  5. Focus on Affordability and Meeting Market Demand: Recognizing challenges like elevated interest rates and affordability pressures, Lennar is adapting its offerings to meet market demand by focusing on delivering homes at prices and with incentives that buyers can afford. This includes refining products and optimizing "Everything's Included" packages, which helps maintain sales pace and volume in a challenging environment.

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Share Repurchases

  • In January 2024, Lennar's Board of Directors authorized an expansion of its stock repurchase program, allowing for up to $5 billion in buybacks of Class A or Class B common stock with no set expiration date.
  • Lennar repurchased $2.256 billion in shares during fiscal year 2024.
  • In fiscal year 2025, the company repurchased $1.7 billion of its common stock.

Inbound Investments

  • In March 2021, Lennar announced the formation of the Upward America Venture, which was initially capitalized with a total equity commitment of $1.25 billion. This venture, led by Centerbridge alongside Allianz Real Estate and other institutional investors, focuses on acquiring single-family homes for rent.

Outbound Investments

  • In November 2024, Lennar entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Rausch Coleman Homes' homebuilding operations for $1 billion, expanding its market presence and contributing to its 2025 growth targets; the acquisition was completed in February 2025.
  • Lennar made strategic technology investments in unconsolidated entities, totaling $239.3 million in fiscal 2024 and $127.5 million in fiscal 2023.
  • In February 2025, Lennar completed the spin-off of Millrose Properties, Inc., an entity focused on land acquisition, development, and management, which is expected to have an asset base of $6.0-$8.0 billion.

Capital Expenditures

  • From fiscal year 2021 to 2025, Lennar's capital expenditures averaged $116.5 million annually.
  • Capital expenditures for Lennar peaked in fiscal year 2025 at $188.6 million.
  • The primary focus of these capital expenditures is on Lennar's homebuilding operations, including the construction and sale of single-family homes and the development of residential land.

Better Bets vs. Lennar (LEN)

Peer Outperformance in Homebuilding

LEN has trailed 88% of its 17 Homebuilding peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it are PHM, TOL and MHO. Homebuilding ranks 2nd of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return. That makes it one of the strongest corners of the sector.
Share of Homebuilding constituents that LEN has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
6%
of 17 industry peers · -37.4% return
3Y
12%
of 17 industry peers · -22.9% return
5Y
12%
of 17 industry peers · -5.9% return
Homebuilding peers with revenue growth within 4pp of LEN's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
LEN Lennar -0.7% 10.9x -37.4%-22.9%-5.9% —
PHM PulteGroup -0.5% 11.5x -15.2%64.8%160.7% +167pp
TOL Toll Brothers 0.2% 10.7x -3.6%97.2%159.5% +165pp
MHO M/I Homes 0.3% 10.9x -9.0%69.3%129.8% +136pp
IBP Installed Building Products 2.5% 20.5x -19.3%68.1%100.0% +106pp
DHI D.R. Horton -1.0% 12.5x -21.9%34.2%71.4% +77pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Homebuilding is LEN's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services 14 -15.5%72.8%72.7% CVSA 221% · LINC 213% · PRDO 207%
Homebuilding ← 18 -11.8%39.0%57.8% GRBK 228% · PHM 161% · TOL 160%
Specialty Stores 7 -2.2%43.1%23.9% FIVE 32% · DKS 30% · ASO 28%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines 21 6.5%34.8%3.0% RCL 216% · MAR 141% · HLT 132%
Automotive Retail 18 -17.3%3.2%0.9% MUSA 222% · PAG 126% · ORLY 110%
Home Improvement Retail 5 -26.4%-3.9%-2.6% HVT 15% · LOW -2% · HD -3%
Home Furnishings 4 -6.4%31.1%-13.2% SGI 44% · LZB 3% · MHK -29%
Footwear 9 55.9%56.6%-13.8% WEYS 198% · DECK 30% · SHOO 25%
Distributors 4 -14.9%-25.3%-14.9% ARMK 124% · GPC 19% · LKQ -49%
Restaurants 36 -12.6%-13.1%-16.9% EAT 302% · CAKE 164% · BH-A 121%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -18.8%10.5%-19.3% HRB 92% · FTDR 85% · SCI 35%
Leisure Products 13 -22.8%-20.8%-37.2% GOLF 82% · HAS 26% · MAT -18%
Household Appliances 18 4.2%-0.1%-39.3% FLXS 236% · HBB 183% · KEQU 159%
Automotive Parts & Equipment 38 -14.9%-12.8%-42.2% MOD 1361% · GTX 276% · CAAS 77%
Apparel Retail 25 -2.2%19.4%-42.3% ANF 247% · URBN 170% · ROST 123%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 -2.7%50.5%-42.6% BBY 4% · GME -43% · UPBD -62%
Leisure Facilities 11 3.9%-8.8%-44.6% JAKK 163% · OSW 129% · ESCA 26%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 29 -9.4%17.9%-48.8% TPR 249% · RL 235% · ELA 197%
Broadline Retail 15 0.5%21.5%-49.0% DDS 343% · EBAY 66% · AMZN 56%
Casinos & Gaming 20 -21.0%-28.1%-49.6% MCRI 93% · RRR 19% · BYD 9%
Consumer Electronics 11 -16.5%-14.6%-70.6% AXIL 3426% · GRMN 98% · SONO -44%
Automobile Manufacturers 8 -78.5%-49.5%-76.8% GM 50% · TSLA 42% · F 15%
Other Specialty Retail 18 -39.6%-42.1%-79.8% TLF 96% · BBW 82% · WINA 61%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LENDHIPHMNVRTOLMTHMedian
NameLennar D.R. Hor.PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro.Meritage. 
Mkt Price80.80135.00115.715,991.29136.6063.81125.35
Mkt Cap19.838.121.916.212.84.218.0
Rev LTM33,17533,35016,4079,54710,7595,39513,583
Op Inc LTM2,2703,8102,5551,4221,4893891,879
FCF LTM-903,2021,5121,0461,0904151,068
FCF 3Y Avg1,9682,6951,3771,253951331,315
CFO LTM723,3531,6261,0671,1924381,129
CFO 3Y Avg2,1292,8451,4921,2791,035601,385

Growth & Margins

LENDHIPHMNVRTOLMTHMedian
NameLennar D.R. Hor.PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro.Meritage. 
Rev Chg LTM-7.2%-3.5%-7.3%-9.9%-1.1%-13.2%-7.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.7%-1.0%-0.5%-1.4%0.2%-5.6%-0.8%
Rev Chg Q-13.3%0.0%-9.6%-10.5%-9.7%-13.7%-10.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.0%0.0%-2.5%-2.8%-2.6%-4.0%-2.7%
Op Inc Chg LTM-51.1%-22.1%-27.5%-23.7%-15.8%-50.1%-25.6%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-27.5%-14.4%-9.9%-9.3%-6.6%-25.5%-12.2%
Op Mgn LTM6.8%11.4%15.6%14.9%13.8%7.2%12.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg11.9%14.1%19.0%17.2%16.3%11.9%15.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.2%-0.3%-0.8%-0.8%-0.8%-0.9%-0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM0.2%10.1%9.9%11.2%11.1%8.1%10.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg6.0%8.2%8.8%12.7%9.7%1.3%8.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.3%9.6%9.2%11.0%10.1%7.7%9.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.6%7.8%8.1%12.5%8.9%0.9%7.9%

Valuation

LENDHIPHMNVRTOLMTHMedian
NameLennar D.R. Hor.PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro.Meritage. 
Mkt Cap19.838.121.916.212.84.218.0
P/S0.61.11.31.71.20.81.2
P/Op Inc8.710.08.611.48.610.89.3
P/EBIT8.710.08.810.78.69.89.3
P/E11.012.511.514.210.712.812.0
P/CFO273.011.413.515.210.89.612.4
Total Yield11.8%9.3%9.6%7.1%10.1%10.8%9.8%
Dividend Yield2.6%1.3%0.9%0.0%0.8%2.9%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.2%6.2%5.9%5.9%7.4%0.4%5.9%
D/E0.30.20.10.10.20.50.2
Net D/E0.10.10.0-0.00.10.30.1

Returns

LENDHIPHMNVRTOLMTHMedian
NameLennar D.R. Hor.PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro.Meritage. 
1M Rtn-3.3%-5.4%-6.8%-4.9%-3.6%-4.5%-4.7%
3M Rtn-7.9%-14.6%-13.2%-11.3%-12.9%-21.5%-13.1%
6M Rtn-5.5%-2.8%-0.9%-10.1%0.9%4.1%-1.8%
12M Rtn-36.6%-21.9%-15.2%-26.7%-3.6%-12.2%-18.6%
3Y Rtn-21.9%34.2%64.8%0.7%97.2%16.6%25.4%
1M Excs Rtn-4.1%-5.8%-7.0%-6.0%-3.6%-5.3%-5.6%
3M Excs Rtn-9.8%-16.1%-14.2%-13.0%-14.2%-22.0%-14.2%
6M Excs Rtn-23.1%-20.1%-18.2%-27.4%-16.4%-13.2%-19.2%
12M Excs Rtn-51.0%-35.8%-28.3%-40.5%-16.7%-25.8%-32.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-105.7%-50.5%-18.9%-79.8%10.3%-68.5%-59.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Homebuilding32,26733,90632,66131,95125,545
Financial Services1,1981,109977810899
Multifamily681412573866665
Lennar Other4114224421
Total34,18735,44134,23333,67127,131


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Homebuilding5,3425,5286,7775,0322,989
Financial Services    481
Lennar Other    -10
Multifamily    23
Total5,3425,5286,7775,0323,482


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Homebuilding29,25335,59433,62832,68427,468
Financial Services3,3773,5173,5673,2542,964
Multifamily9021,3071,3821,2571,312
Lennar Other8988956587891,464
Total34,43041,31339,23437,98433,208


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$79.81 
Market Cap ($ Bil)19.5 
First Trading Date11/05/1987 
Distance from 52W High-39.1% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$83.72$93.54
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA-4.7%-14.7%
 3M1YR
Volatility35.2%37.4%
Downside Capture204.30131.83
Upside Capture121.2254.65
Correlation (SPY)44.1%33.8%
LEN Betas & Captures as of 9/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.921.811.411.280.980.83
Up Beta1.011.620.331.111.210.84
Down Beta4.182.851.771.380.900.52
Up Capture163%169%144%104%47%56%
Bmk +ve Days6162766132424
Stock +ve Days11213164119376
Down Capture217%196%198%157%119%104%
Bmk -ve Days16263760120328
Stock -ve Days11213362133374

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with LEN
LEN-36.6%37.3%-1.15-
Sector ETF (XLY)-8.2%19.5%-0.5742.9%
Equity (SPY)16.2%13.0%0.8833.5%
Gold (GLD)6.8%29.6%0.2216.6%
Commodities (DBC)44.9%20.8%1.67-30.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.5%13.6%-0.1544.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-28.9%44.3%-0.642.2%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with LEN
LEN-2.9%35.2%-0.01-
Sector ETF (XLY)4.4%24.1%0.1454.6%
Equity (SPY)13.1%17.2%0.5850.7%
Gold (GLD)18.4%18.9%0.7911.7%
Commodities (DBC)10.3%19.6%0.41-4.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)0.7%18.8%-0.0756.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)14.6%52.2%0.4521.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with LEN
LEN7.6%37.7%0.31-
Sector ETF (XLY)11.8%22.2%0.4856.0%
Equity (SPY)15.3%17.9%0.7253.0%
Gold (GLD)11.5%16.4%0.5712.6%
Commodities (DBC)8.2%18.1%0.3710.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.2%20.7%0.1655.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)64.1%66.2%1.0413.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity18.2 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 8312026-0.4%
Average Daily Volume3.5 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.2 days
Basic Shares Quantity244.4 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares7.4%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 9/25/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
9/16/20261.7%4.0% 
6/11/2026-4.9%-5.5%-11.3%
3/12/20262.6%1.3%-3.0%
12/16/2025-4.5%-10.9%0.9%
9/19/2025-4.2%-1.0%-0.7%
6/17/2025-1.1%4.9%5.1%
3/20/2025-4.0%-1.7%-13.6%
12/18/2024-5.2%-5.0%-6.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101112
# Negative151412
Median Positive3.1%4.9%5.3%
Median Negative-4.1%-4.0%-4.9%
Max Positive13.8%11.4%23.1%
Max Negative-7.6%-10.9%-13.6%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
9/16/20261.7%4.0% 
6/11/2026-4.9%-5.5%-11.3%
3/12/20262.6%1.3%-3.0%
12/16/2025-4.5%-10.9%0.9%
9/19/2025-4.2%-1.0%-0.7%
6/17/2025-1.1%4.9%5.1%
3/20/2025-4.0%-1.7%-13.6%
12/18/2024-5.2%-5.0%-6.7%
9/19/2024-5.3%-4.9%-1.6%
6/17/2024-5.0%-4.7%9.0%
3/13/2024-7.6%-1.1%-3.4%
12/14/2023-3.6%-4.5%-3.4%
9/14/2023-2.5%-3.9%-6.8%
6/14/20234.4%5.7%14.0%
3/14/2023-0.6%2.7%3.0%
12/14/20223.8%-0.3%8.8%
9/21/20222.0%2.1%-5.5%
6/21/20221.6%11.4%23.1%
3/16/20220.9%-4.1%-13.3%
12/15/2021-4.1%-0.7%-4.4%
9/20/2021-0.5%1.2%1.9%
6/16/20213.6%6.2%5.3%
3/16/202113.8%7.4%16.0%
12/16/20207.6%5.8%5.3%
9/14/2020-3.9%-2.8%5.1%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101112
# Negative151412
Median Positive3.1%4.9%5.3%
Median Negative-4.1%-4.0%-4.9%
Max Positive13.8%11.4%23.1%
Max Negative-7.6%-10.9%-13.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
02/28/202604/09/202610-Q
11/30/202501/28/202610-K
08/31/202510/03/202510-Q
05/31/202507/01/202510-Q
02/28/202504/04/202510-Q
11/30/202401/23/202510-K
08/31/202410/02/202410-Q
05/31/202406/28/202410-Q
02/29/202403/29/202410-Q
11/30/202301/26/202410-K
08/31/202309/29/202310-Q
05/31/202306/30/202310-Q
02/28/202304/04/202310-Q
11/30/202201/26/202310-K
08/31/202210/04/202210-Q
05/31/202207/01/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
02/28/202604/09/202610-Q
11/30/202501/28/202610-K
08/31/202510/03/202510-Q
05/31/202507/01/202510-Q
02/28/202504/04/202510-Q
11/30/202401/23/202510-K
08/31/202410/02/202410-Q
05/31/202406/28/202410-Q
02/29/202403/29/202410-Q
11/30/202301/26/202410-K
08/31/202309/29/202310-Q
05/31/202306/30/202310-Q
02/28/202304/04/202310-Q
11/30/202201/26/202310-K
08/31/202210/04/202210-Q
05/31/202207/01/202210-Q
02/28/202204/01/202210-Q
11/30/202101/28/202210-K
08/31/202110/01/202110-Q
05/31/202107/02/202110-Q
02/28/202104/01/202110-Q
11/30/202001/22/202110-K
08/31/202010/01/202010-Q
05/31/202007/06/202010-Q
02/29/202004/07/202010-Q
11/30/201901/27/202010-K
08/31/201910/08/201910-Q
05/31/201907/03/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 9/17/2026

Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 9/16/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2026 New OrdersReported195002000020500-7.0% Lower NewGuidance: 21500 for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 DeliveriesReported2200022500230007.1% Higher NewGuidance: 21000 for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Financial Services Operating EarningsReported90.00 Mil92.50 Mil95.00 Mil-5.1% Lower NewGuidance: 97.50 Mil for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Average Sales PriceReported0.37 Mil0.38 Mil0.38 Mil-0.7% Lower NewGuidance: 0.38 Mil for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Gross Margin % on Home SalesReported15.5%15.75%16.0% -0.2%Lower NewGuidance: 16.0% for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 SG&A % of Home SalesReported8.7%8.85%9.0% -0.0%Lower NewGuidance: 8.9% for Q3 2026
2026 Target DeliveriesReported800008050081000-2.4% LoweredGuidance: 82500 for 2026


Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 6/11/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q3 2026 New OrdersReported2100021500220000 AffirmedGuidance: 21500 for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 DeliveriesReported2050021000215002.4% Higher NewGuidance: 20500 for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Financial Services Operating EarningsReported95.00 Mil97.50 Mil100.00 Mil-7.1% Lower NewGuidance: 105.00 Mil for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Average Sales PriceReported0.38 Mil0.38 Mil0.38 Mil1.3% Higher NewGuidance: 0.37 Mil for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Gross Margin % on Home SalesReported 16.0%  0.2%Higher NewGuidance: 15.75% for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 SG&A % of Home SalesReported8.8%8.9%9.0% -0.1%Lower NewGuidance: 9.0% for Q2 2026
2026 DeliveriesReported820008250083000  Lowered

Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 3/12/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 New OrdersReported21000215002200016.2% Higher NewGuidance: 18500 for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 DeliveriesReported20000205002100017.1% Higher NewGuidance: 17500 for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Financial Services Operating EarningsReported100.00 Mil105.00 Mil110.00 Mil-2.3% Lower NewGuidance: 107.50 Mil for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Average Sales PriceReported0.37 Mil0.37 Mil0.38 Mil0.7% Higher NewGuidance: 0.37 Mil for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Gross Margin % on Home SalesReported15.5%15.75%16.0% 0.2%Higher NewGuidance: 15.5% for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 SG&A % of Home SalesReported8.9%9.0%9.1% -0.5%Lower NewGuidance: 9.5% for Q1 2026

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 12/16/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 DeliveriesReported170001750018000-22.2% Lower NewActual: 22500 for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 New OrdersReported180001850019000-9.8% Lower NewActual: 20500 for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Financial Services Operating EarningsReported105.00 Mil107.50 Mil110.00 Mil-18.9% Lower NewActual: 132.50 Mil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Average Sales PriceReported0.36 Mil0.37 Mil0.38 Mil-3.9% Lower NewActual: 0.39 Mil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 S,G&A % of Home SalesReported 9.5%  1.6%Higher NewActual: 7.9% for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Gross Margin % on Home SalesReported15.0%15.5%16.0% -2.0%Lower NewActual: 17.5% for Q4 2025
2026 DeliveriesReported 85000    

Insider Activity

Updated 9/30/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy930202681.59638,81352,120,7532,124,149,633Form
2Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy930202679.984,008320,56044,228,940Form
3Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy930202681.9512,2891,007,0842,081,171,305Form
4Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy930202680.001008,00043,919,360Form
5Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy930202681.965,200426,1922,080,418,055Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy930202681.59638,81352,120,7532,124,149,633Form
2Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy930202679.984,008320,56044,228,940Form
3Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy930202681.9512,2891,007,0842,081,171,305Form
4Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy930202680.001008,00043,919,360Form
5Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy930202681.965,200426,1922,080,418,055Form
6Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy925202681.15485,10239,364,9582,059,379,628Form
7Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy925202679.537,022558,46043,653,381Form
8Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy925202680.90640,93051,853,9952,013,953,388Form
9Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy925202679.5412,390985,47243,099,069Form
10Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy925202681.65532,99343,518,8781,980,184,128Form
11Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy925202679.991,263101,02742,353,105Form
12Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy921202677.79644,08450,100,6261,845,011,223Form
13Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy921202676.4423,0341,760,66140,375,588Form
14Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy921202676.521,346,675103,043,6291,765,633,365Form
15Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy921202674.9134,7222,600,91837,841,699Form
16Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy921202679.02677,74953,552,4631,716,869,610Form
17Berkshire, Hathaway Inc See footnoteBuy921202677.4317,2651,336,85436,428,485Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Oct 5, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Greenhaven Associates Inc$953.9 Mil15.7%27ADD +5.1%13F
Sophron Capital Management L.P.$17.7 Mil5.2%41ADD +476.4%13F
Brave Warrior Advisors, LLC$209.3 Mil5.2%36Hold13F
GoodHaven Capital Management, LLC$13.7 Mil4.8%24ADD +8.2%13F
Smead Capital Management, Inc.$137.7 Mil3.0%32TRIM -13.0%13F
Prescott General Partners LLC$28.0 Mil2.1%10ADD +1515.0%13F
Horiko Capital Management LLC$7.6 Mil1.8%20Hold13F
Magnolia Group, LLC$9.1 Mil1.7%12ADD +53.1%13F
First Washington CORP$5.5 Mil1.6%50Hold13F
Deltroit Asset Management (UK) LLP$7.7 Mil1.3%39ADD +329.5%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Prescott General Partners LLC$28.0 Mil2.1%10ADD +1515.0%13F
Sophron Capital Management L.P.$17.7 Mil5.2%41ADD +476.4%13F
Deltroit Asset Management (UK) LLP$7.7 Mil1.3%39ADD +329.5%13F
Magnolia Group, LLC$9.1 Mil1.7%12ADD +53.1%13F
GoodHaven Capital Management, LLC$13.7 Mil4.8%24ADD +8.2%13F
Greenhaven Associates Inc$953.9 Mil15.7%27ADD +5.1%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
ADAPT Investment Managers SA$11.7 Mil2.4%28ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Smead Capital Management, Inc.$137.7 Mil3.0%32TRIM -13.0%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Greenhaven Associates Inc$953.9 Mil15.7%27ADD +5.1%13F
Brave Warrior Advisors, LLC$209.3 Mil5.2%36Hold13F
Smead Capital Management, Inc.$137.7 Mil3.0%32TRIM -13.0%13F
Prescott General Partners LLC$28.0 Mil2.1%10ADD +1515.0%13F
Sophron Capital Management L.P.$17.7 Mil5.2%41ADD +476.4%13F
GoodHaven Capital Management, LLC$13.7 Mil4.8%24ADD +8.2%13F
Magnolia Group, LLC$9.1 Mil1.7%12ADD +53.1%13F
Deltroit Asset Management (UK) LLP$7.7 Mil1.3%39ADD +329.5%13F
Horiko Capital Management LLC$7.6 Mil1.8%20Hold13F
First Washington CORP$5.5 Mil1.6%50Hold13F

LEN Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

Neutral / Watch

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Lennar guides for a significant Q3 gross margin recovery to approximately 16%, a potential inflection from a trailing 8.8%. However, this is set against negative free cash flow of -$90.2 million and rising net debt. The investment case hinges on this guided margin improvement materializing and beginning to repair cash generation.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical Project-Based

(Number of Homes Delivered) x (Average Selling Price) Gross Margin % recovery, driven by a reduction in sales incentives and continued construction cost control.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Can a margin inflection offset weakening demand and poor cash flow?

Evidence points to a potential bottoming in profitability, with management guiding for a sharp near-term gross margin recovery despite lowered full-year volume expectations.

Mechanism: A recent decline in sales incentives to 12.9% and management's Q3 gross margin guidance of approximately 16% could signal a recovery from the trailing 8.8% margin. If sustained, this would drive significant earnings growth even on flat volume, re-rating the stock as profitability normalizes closer to its five-year peak of 21%.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Management guides for Q3 2026 gross margins of approximately 16%.
  • Sales incentives on deliveries declined to 12.9% in Q2 2026.
  • Management views the incentive decline as a potential 'leading indicator of margin recovery'.
  • The company's five-year peak operating margin was 21%, showing significant recovery potential.
PRIMARY RISK
Unsustainable Capital Allocation

The company is funding shareholder returns with debt, as trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was negative $90.2 million while net debt increased to $2.9 billion from $1.1 billion a year earlier. This strategy is unsustainable if operating cash flow does not improve significantly, creating balance sheet risk.

Mechanism: A failure to meet Q3 margin guidance or improve operating cash flow would confirm the business cannot fund its current capital return policy.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was negative $90.2 million.
  • Net debt increased to $2.9 billion from $1.1 billion in the prior year.
  • Operating cash flow was $72.4 million against net income of $1.8 billion.
  • Full-year 2026 delivery guidance was lowered to a range of 82,000 to 83,000 homes.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
New Orders21,749 homes in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 - DeceleratingThe year-over-year decline in New Orders in the latest quarter marks a deceleration from the first quarter's performance. Management attributed the weakness to a challenging macro environment, including stubbornly elevated mortgage rates and wavering consumer confidence.
Sales Incentives12.9% of home sales revenue in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 - Turning aroundManagement highlighted the sequential and year-over-year decline in incentives as an encouraging signal and a potential "leading indicator of margin recovery." Despite this improvement, the overall level remains elevated, reflecting the affordability-constrained market.
Home Deliveries20,519 (Q2 2026 (three months ended May 31, 2026))Represents the number of homes closed and revenue recognized in the period, reflecting current operational output.
Construction Cycle Timea hundred and 21 days (Q2 2026)Measures the time from start to completion of a home. A lower number indicates greater operational efficiency, faster inventory turns, and improved capital efficiency.
Core Investment Debate

Margin Inflection vs. Cash Burn

BULL VIEW

Bulls focus on leading indicators: sales incentives fell to 12.9% and Q3 gross margin is guided to ~16%. This signals a sharp profitability recovery is underway, making the deeply negative trailing-twelve-month margin of 8.8% irrelevant.

CORE TENSION

Can guided Q3 margin recovery to ~16% reverse the narrative from negative cash flow and severe peer underperformance on trailing margins of 8.8%?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
NEUTRAL

The latest evidence favors the bears, as the negative cash flow is a reported fact. The bull case rests entirely on achieving future guidance, which has not yet been confirmed.

BEAR VIEW

Bears see the trailing-twelve-month negative free cash flow of -$90.2 million and rising net debt as proof the model is broken. The company is borrowing to fund buybacks, a sign of financial stress that margin hopes cannot obscure.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
10/20/2026
Peer Margin Outperformance
Watch: Peer earnings reports confirming continued wide margin gaps, pressuring Lennar's stock and strategy narrative.
10/22/2026
PulteGroup Earnings Report
Watch: Peer PulteGroup is scheduled to report earnings.
10/26/2026
Meritage Homes Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Meritage Homes is scheduled to report earnings.
12/14/2026
Failure to Meet Guidance
Watch: A miss on Q3 delivery or margin guidance in the December earnings report, signaling worsening demand or pricing pressure.
12/14/2026
Lennar Earnings Report
Watch: Lennar is scheduled to report its next earnings.
No set date
Worsening Housing Affordability
Watch: Further increases in mortgage rates or signs of weakening consumer confidence, which could force higher incentives and pressure future guidance.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-07-13
Mortgage Rates Trend Higher
Details: Press reports in mid-July noted that mortgage rates were heading higher, creating bad news for homebuilders as homes become less affordable.
-0.7%
$84.27 -> $83.71
2026-06-17
Q2 Results Show Declines
Details: Press reports on June 17 highlighted Lennar's Q2 results, where adjusted EPS fell 31.1% year-over-year and total revenues declined 5.2% year-over-year.
-0.1%
$89.25 -> $89.20
2026-06-12
Negative Q2 Earnings Reaction
Details: The stock reacted negatively to the June 12 earnings call, with a two-day stock reaction of -5.0% versus 2.0% for the S&P 500.
-5.5%
$94.39 -> $89.22
2026-06-11
Full-Year Guidance Lowered
Details: At its June 11 earnings report, the company lowered its guidance for full-year 2026 deliveries, setting a new midpoint of 82,500 homes.
+0.5%
$89.32 -> $89.76
2026-03-15
Management Outlines Q1 Strategy
Details: On its March 15 earnings call, management stated it was prioritizing consistent volume, cost reductions, and an asset-light model to navigate a 'stubbornly challenging' housing market.
+3.7%
$91.51 -> $94.88
2026-03-13
Positive Q1 Earnings Reaction
Details: The stock reacted positively to the March 13 earnings call, with a two-day stock reaction of 4.0% versus 0.0% for the S&P 500.
+3.7%
$91.51 -> $94.88
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4% - 6%

NORMAL POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: LEN trades at roughly 38% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (2.8x the market), around the 38th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
DHI - D.R. Horton
Scale with Profitability

D.R. Horton matches Lennar's scale with a trailing-twelve-month revenue of $33.3 billion, but operates with a vastly superior gross margin of 22.6% versus Lennar's 8.8%.

Core Thesis: DHI offers exposure to the large-scale homebuilding theme with a more proven, profitable, and efficient operating model.
PHM - a business partner
Higher-End & Margin Leader

a business partner focuses more on move-up and active adult buyers with a build-to-order model, achieving a sector-leading gross margin of 25.2%.

Core Thesis: PHM provides a less cyclical exposure to homebuilding by targeting a more discerning customer, resulting in superior profitability.
How Is The Market Pricing LEN?

Lennar is an asset-light home manufacturer using its scale to drive down costs and maintain production volume through a cyclical downturn, positioning itself for significant margin expansion when housing affordability improves.

Lennar is navigating a difficult housing market characterized by high interest rates and affordability challenges. Its core strategy is to maintain a consistent volume of home sales by using incentives to "price to market," accepting near-term margin compression. This volume-first approach is designed to drive down construction costs and improve operational efficiencies like cycle time, creating a more resilient, lower-cost manufacturing platform. The thesis is that when macroeconomic headwinds subside, Lennar's leveraged cost structure and market position will allow for a rapid recovery in profitability as incentives are reduced.

What will confirm the thesis

Sustained sequential declines in sales incentives, sequential improvement in gross margins, and stable or growing new order volumes despite a challenging macro environment.

What will damage the thesis

A sharp increase in cancellation rates, rising construction costs that cannot be offset, or a severe drop in new orders forcing even deeper price cuts to maintain volume.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Short-term fluctuations in stock price or monthly housing data that do not alter the underlying trend of affordability and consumer confidence.

Repricing Catalyst

A sustained decline in mortgage rates or meaningful government action on housing affordability, which would unlock pent-up demand and allow the company to reduce incentives, leading to a sharp recovery in gross margins.

What LEN Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q1 2026
Homebuilding
$31.3B TTM (94% of Total)
What It Is

Constructs and sells single-family attached and detached homes to a diverse customer base including first-time, move-up, active adult, and luxury homebuyers across various U.S. markets.

Who Pays & How

Individual homebuyers pay for the homes upon closing. They are drawn to Lennar's value-oriented pricing, its "Everything's Included" marketing program which simplifies the buying process by including desirable features as standard, and innovative designs like the "Next Gen" home for multi-generational families.

Unit sale of homes. The company uses a dynamic pricing model and incentives to match pricing to market conditions and maintain a consistent sales pace.
Competition
Competes with numerous national, regional, and local homebuilders, including D.R. Horton (DHI) and PulteGroup (PHM), as well as sellers of existing homes.
Competitors may compete on location, price, and design. Sellers of existing homes offer an alternative to new construction.
Lennar's moat is its scale, which provides purchasing leverage and cost efficiencies, its "Everything's Included" marketing program, access to land through its land-light strategy, and its focus on operational efficiency to reduce costs and cycle times.
Financial Services
$1.1B TTM (3% of Total)
What It Is

Provides mortgage financing, title insurance, and closing services primarily to buyers of Lennar homes. It also originates and sells commercial mortgage loans.

Who Pays & How

Homebuyers pay for these services as part of the home purchasing and financing process. The segment captures a high percentage of Lennar's homebuyers (84% of those who obtained mortgages in FY2025) by offering an integrated and simplified financing experience alongside the home purchase.

Transactional fees for services like loan origination, title insurance, and closing services. Substantially all residential mortgages are sold into the secondary market shortly after origination.
Competition
Competes with other residential and commercial mortgage lenders, including national, regional, and local banks, and other financial institutions.
Competitors may have greater access to low-cost funds or superior technologies.
The segment's primary advantage is its integration with the homebuilding operation, providing a captive audience and a streamlined process for homebuyers.
Multifamily
$700M TTM (2% of Total)
What It Is

Develops, constructs, and manages multifamily rental communities, often through joint ventures and longer-duration funds.

Who Pays & How

Tenants pay rent for apartments. Investment partners provide capital for development projects in exchange for returns.

Revenue is generated from rental income from properties and management fees from investment funds and ventures.
Competition
Competes with other developers and operators of multifamily apartment communities, as well as sellers and renters of single-family homes.
Lennar Other
$57M TTM (0% of Total)
What It Is

This segment primarily consists of strategic investments in technology companies related to the homebuilding and financial services industries, as well as legacy fund investments.

Who Pays & How

This segment does not have a traditional customer base; its results are driven by the performance and valuation of its investments.

Results are driven by mark-to-market gains or losses on investments and returns from unconsolidated entities.
Competition
LEN Evolution: Price Return by Era
1997-2018 · Growth Through Acquisition
+887%
Founded in 1954, Lennar grew from a local Miami homebuilder into a national leader through a series of strategic acquisitions, including Pacific Greystone Corporation (1997), U.S. Home Corporation (2000), and CalAtlantic Group, Inc. (2018), which significantly expanded its geographic footprint and market position.
c. 2020s · Transition to Land-Light Model
+38%
In recent years, Lennar has strategically shifted to a "land-light" operating model, reducing its ownership of land and instead controlling a high percentage of its homesites through options and agreements with land banks. This strategy culminated in the February 2025 spin-off of a significant portion of its land assets to Millrose, accelerating its transition to a more capital-efficient, manufacturing-focused homebuilder.
Market Appears To Be Skeptical Of Core Thesis
Price structure is in a downtrend. Multiple SMA levels broken and declining. Thesis requires reclaiming 200D before any bull case is credible. Relative to SPY: Significantly underperforming and deteriorating. Potential evidence of capital being actively rotating away. Volume and momentum are deeply bearish. The sustained distribution is evident across multiple volume metrics. Earnings history is supportive. The reaction and drift are both positive, and the market is accepting the narrative. NOTE: Structure and earnings history are contradicting each other. The price trend says one thing, and the market reaction to catalysts says another. Treat this with caution and weigh the most recent earnings event heavily.
① Structure
-4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-4
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+2
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-6 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Downtrend · - ▾
2 Momentum Deteriorating ▾
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Underperformance ▾
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Distribution ▾
5 Volatility Normal ▾
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising ▾
7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent ▾
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾
Core Cache Last Updated: 10/4/2026