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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -20%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.4%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.1%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -20%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.4%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.1%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LEN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Lennar's (LEN) stock moved by -4.4% between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025:

1. Significant Decline in Q3 2025 Earnings: Lennar reported a substantial drop in net earnings and adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter ended August 31, 2025, with net earnings falling to $591 million compared to $1.2 billion in the prior year, and adjusted EPS of $2.00 missing Wall Street expectations.

2. Reduced Revenues and Gross Margins: The company's total revenues for Q3 2025 decreased by 6% from the previous year, falling short of analyst estimates, while gross margins on home sales contracted significantly to 17.5% from 22.5% in Q3 2024, primarily due to lower revenue per square foot, higher land costs, and increased sales incentives.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LEN Return38%54%-21%67%-7%-5%147%
Peers Return17%47%-20%74%13%9%195%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LEN Win Rate75%75%42%58%67%30% 
Peers Win Rate70%72%42%62%63%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LEN Max Drawdown-47%-4%-44%0%-7%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-47%-5%-37%-2%-5%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DHI, PHM, NVR, J, TOL. See LEN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLENS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-44.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven81.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven364 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-58.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven142.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven126 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-47.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven88.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven581 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-93.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1441.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven3239 days1480 days

Compare to DHI, PHM, NVR, J, TOL


In The Past

Lennar's stock fell -44.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/10/2021. A -44.8% loss requires a 81.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Lennar (LEN)

Better Bets than Lennar (LEN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LEN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
LEN_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025LENLennarDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.1%12.1%-3.9%
LEN_3312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312022LENLennarDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.7%31.9%-20.2%
LEN_9302018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302018LENLennarDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.3%20.0%-18.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
LEN_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025LENLennarDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.1%12.1%-3.9%
LEN_3312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312022LENLennarDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.7%31.9%-20.2%
LEN_9302018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302018LENLennarDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.3%20.0%-18.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Lennar

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LENDHIPHMNVRJTOLMedian
NameLennar D.R. Hor.PulteGro.NVR Jacobs S.Toll Bro. 
Mkt Price126.75160.73127.897,519.67140.73141.06140.89
Mkt Cap32.448.925.121.616.913.923.4
Rev LTM34,76634,57517,62310,47611,83510,87714,729
Op Inc LTM3,4704,8923,3951,7828481,7682,589
FCF LTM-7132,7851,5521,2924129181,105
FCF 3Y Avg2,7832,7071,8751,4307521,2011,652
CFO LTM-5682,9111,6681,3195009951,157
CFO 3Y Avg2,9182,8561,9831,4578701,2741,720

Growth & Margins

LENDHIPHMNVRJTOLMedian
NameLennar D.R. Hor.PulteGro.NVR Jacobs S.Toll Bro. 
Rev Chg LTM-4.7%-7.3%1.8%3.4%61.5%3.3%2.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.0%2.9%5.4%1.4%1.1%4.4%3.0%
Rev Chg Q-6.4%-7.4%-1.6%-4.5%5.1%8.0%-3.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.7%-2.1%-0.4%-1.2%1.3%2.0%-0.8%
Op Mgn LTM10.0%14.2%19.3%17.0%7.2%16.3%15.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.6%16.3%20.6%18.4%6.3%17.5%16.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.5%-1.0%-0.7%-0.6%0.5%-0.4%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM-1.6%8.4%9.5%12.6%4.2%9.1%8.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.4%8.1%11.6%14.4%9.5%11.9%10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-2.1%8.1%8.8%12.3%3.5%8.4%8.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.0%7.7%10.9%14.2%8.2%11.2%9.6%

Valuation

LENDHIPHMNVRJTOLMedian
NameLennar D.R. Hor.PulteGro.NVR Jacobs S.Toll Bro. 
Mkt Cap32.448.925.121.616.913.923.4
P/S0.91.11.52.21.31.01.2
P/EBIT9.38.07.612.217.76.48.6
P/E12.09.99.916.132.08.210.9
P/CFO-56.713.515.617.531.611.314.5
Total Yield10.0%11.3%10.8%6.2%3.6%12.7%10.4%
Dividend Yield1.6%1.2%0.7%0.0%0.5%0.4%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.3%6.5%9.2%6.3%4.7%12.1%6.9%
D/E0.20.20.10.00.20.30.2
Net D/E0.10.10.0-0.00.10.20.1

Returns

LENDHIPHMNVRJTOLMedian
NameLennar D.R. Hor.PulteGro.NVR Jacobs S.Toll Bro. 
1M Rtn4.2%10.7%6.9%5.2%-8.7%5.5%5.4%
3M Rtn-7.8%-8.8%-6.9%-10.6%-1.9%-2.8%-7.4%
6M Rtn16.2%31.7%26.3%4.5%13.1%30.3%21.2%
12M Rtn-23.0%0.8%-0.3%-16.9%3.7%-8.8%-4.5%
3Y Rtn51.5%95.3%200.1%61.7%44.1%209.9%78.5%
1M Excs Rtn2.9%9.5%5.6%4.0%-10.0%4.3%4.1%
3M Excs Rtn-16.1%-17.1%-14.7%-17.3%-8.8%-9.9%-15.4%
6M Excs Rtn0.7%16.2%10.9%-10.9%-2.4%14.9%5.8%
12M Excs Rtn-39.1%-16.2%-18.0%-31.5%-10.8%-26.6%-22.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-20.1%23.8%124.2%-8.3%-30.2%134.4%7.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Homebuilding33,62832,68427,46825,52924,789
Financial Services3,5673,2542,9642,7083,006
Multifamily1,3821,2571,3121,1761,069
Lennar Other6587891,464522495
Total39,23437,98433,20829,93529,360


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity20,388,933
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202537.8%
Average Daily Volume3,772,883
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.40
Basic Shares Quantity255,601,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
83120251003202510-Q 8/31/2025
5312025701202510-Q 5/31/2025
2282025404202510-Q 2/28/2025
11302024123202510-K 11/30/2024
83120241002202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024628202410-Q 5/31/2024
2292024329202410-Q 2/29/2024
11302023126202410-K 11/30/2023
8312023929202310-Q 8/31/2023
5312023630202310-Q 5/31/2023
2282023404202310-Q 2/28/2023
11302022126202310-K 11/30/2022
83120221004202210-Q 8/31/2022
5312022701202210-Q 5/31/2022
2282022401202210-Q 2/28/2022
11302021128202210-K 11/30/2021