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Lennar (LEN)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $112.255 | Market Cap: $28.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding

Lennar (LEN)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $112.255
Market Cap: $28.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Homebuilding

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.4%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.1%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more.
  Key risks
LEN key risks include [1] significant margin compression and eroding profitability driven by the need to offer increased sales incentives and price reductions.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.4%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.1%
7 Key risks
LEN key risks include [1] significant margin compression and eroding profitability driven by the need to offer increased sales incentives and price reductions.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LEN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**1. Disappointing Q4 2025 Earnings and Weak Guidance**

Lennar Corporation reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.03 for its fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, which ended November 30, 2025. This figure missed analyst consensus estimates ranging from $2.21 to $2.23. Furthermore, the company provided a disappointing outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, forecasting lower average sales prices and gross margins than anticipated. **2. Challenging Housing Market Conditions**

The broader housing market during the period from August to December 2025 was characterized by significant challenges. These included persistent affordability issues, fragile consumer confidence, and overall weak buyer demand. Lennar's executives acknowledged operating in a "stubbornly difficult housing market." **3. Margin Compression Due to Increased Incentives and Price Reductions**

In an effort to stimulate sales amidst the soft market conditions, Lennar significantly increased its sales incentives, maintaining them at approximately 14%. The average sales price of homes delivered in Q4 2025 declined by about 10% year-over-year to $386,000. This strategy led to a contraction in gross margins on home sales, which fell to 17% in Q4 2025, missing Wall Street's expectations, and were projected to decline further to 15-16% in Q1 2026. **4. Year-over-Year Decline in Key Financial Metrics**

Lennar experienced a year-over-year decrease in several key financial metrics. Total revenues for fiscal year 2025 were $34.2 billion, down from $35.4 billion in fiscal year 2024. Specifically for Q4 2025, net income attributable to common shareholders saw a substantial decline of over 55% compared to the same period in the previous year. **5. Analyst Downgrades**

Following the mixed Q4 earnings report and the cautious guidance for the upcoming quarter, several financial analysts downgraded Lennar's stock. Notably, Evercore ISI downgraded Lennar from an "In Line" rating to "Underperform" and reduced its price target. RBC Capital also downgraded the stock to "Underperform," citing the weak Q4 performance and Q1 guidance.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LEN Return38%54%-21%67%-7%-12%129%
Peers Return20%51%-22%90%6%5%195%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LEN Win Rate75%75%42%58%67%33% 
Peers Win Rate65%75%42%65%57%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LEN Max Drawdown-47%-4%-44%0%-7%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-53%-4%-42%-0%-7%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DHI, PHM, NVR, TOL, MTH. See LEN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLENS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-44.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven81.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven364 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-58.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven142.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven126 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-47.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven88.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven581 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-93.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1441.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven3,239 days1,480 days

Compare to DHI, PHM, NVR, J, TOL


In The Past

Lennar's stock fell -44.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/10/2021. A -44.8% loss requires a 81.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Lennar (LEN)

Better Bets than Lennar (LEN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LEN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
LEN_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025LENLennarDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.0%-1.0%-3.9%
LEN_3312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312022LENLennarDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.7%31.9%-20.2%
LEN_9302018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302018LENLennarDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.3%20.0%-18.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
LEN_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025LENLennarDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.0%-1.0%-3.9%
LEN_3312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312022LENLennarDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.7%31.9%-20.2%
LEN_9302018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302018LENLennarDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.3%20.0%-18.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Lennar

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LENDHIPHMNVRTOLMTHMedian
NameLennar D.R. Hor.PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro.Meritage. 
Mkt Price112.23152.00122.807,472.55139.1668.29130.98
Mkt Cap28.745.024.121.513.74.822.8
Rev LTM34,76634,25017,62310,47610,8776,04814,250
Op Inc LTM3,4704,4243,3951,7821,7686612,589
FCF LTM-7133,2841,5521,292918-2531,105
FCF 3Y Avg2,7833,1541,8751,4301,2011611,652
CFO LTM-5683,4211,6681,319995-2251,157
CFO 3Y Avg2,9183,3051,9831,4571,2741931,720

Growth & Margins

LENDHIPHMNVRTOLMTHMedian
NameLennar D.R. Hor.PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro.Meritage. 
Rev Chg LTM-4.7%-6.9%1.8%3.4%3.3%-6.0%-1.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.0%0.9%5.4%1.4%4.4%1.6%2.3%
Rev Chg Q-6.4%-3.2%-1.6%-4.5%8.0%-10.7%-3.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.7%-0.9%-0.4%-1.2%2.0%-2.8%-1.1%
Op Mgn LTM10.0%12.9%19.3%17.0%16.3%10.9%14.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.6%15.4%20.6%18.4%17.5%13.9%16.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.5%-1.2%-0.7%-0.6%-0.4%-1.6%-0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM-1.6%10.0%9.5%12.6%9.1%-3.7%9.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.4%9.4%11.6%14.4%11.9%2.9%10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-2.1%9.6%8.8%12.3%8.4%-4.2%8.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.0%8.9%10.9%14.2%11.2%2.4%9.9%

Valuation

LENDHIPHMNVRTOLMTHMedian
NameLennar D.R. Hor.PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro.Meritage. 
Mkt Cap28.745.024.121.513.74.822.8
P/S0.91.31.52.21.00.81.2
P/EBIT9.310.27.612.26.47.38.4
P/E12.012.59.916.18.29.510.9
P/CFO-56.713.115.617.511.3-22.812.2
Total Yield10.0%9.1%10.8%6.2%12.7%12.9%10.4%
Dividend Yield1.6%1.1%0.7%0.0%0.4%2.3%0.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.3%7.1%9.2%6.3%12.1%4.6%7.2%
D/E0.20.10.10.00.30.40.2
Net D/E0.10.10.0-0.00.20.20.1

Returns

LENDHIPHMNVRTOLMTHMedian
NameLennar D.R. Hor.PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro.Meritage. 
1M Rtn-1.6%10.3%8.1%4.4%9.9%6.4%7.2%
3M Rtn-15.2%-10.3%-8.2%-8.2%-0.5%-8.9%-8.6%
6M Rtn9.5%26.0%24.3%7.1%32.5%10.7%17.5%
12M Rtn-24.6%4.8%6.8%-11.8%5.7%-14.5%-3.5%
3Y Rtn27.1%75.1%171.6%55.2%183.4%55.6%65.3%
1M Excs Rtn-2.4%9.6%7.3%3.7%9.1%5.7%6.5%
3M Excs Rtn-16.5%-11.5%-9.6%-10.0%-1.6%-11.6%-10.7%
6M Excs Rtn-2.9%13.7%11.9%-5.3%20.1%-1.7%5.1%
12M Excs Rtn-37.1%-8.5%-6.4%-24.1%-6.2%-27.6%-16.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-36.8%13.1%113.2%-9.6%121.3%-7.7%2.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Homebuilding33,62832,68427,46825,52924,789
Financial Services3,5673,2542,9642,7083,006
Multifamily1,3821,2571,3121,1761,069
Lennar Other6587891,464522495
Total39,23437,98433,20829,93529,360


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity35,737,570
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202575.3%
Average Daily Volume14,222,624
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.51
Basic Shares Quantity255,601,000
Short % of Basic Shares14.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
12/16/2025-4.5%  
9/19/2025-4.2%-1.0%-0.7%
6/17/2025-1.1%4.9%5.1%
3/20/2025-4.0%-1.7%-13.6%
12/18/2024-5.2%-5.0%-6.7%
9/19/2024-5.3%-4.9%-1.6%
6/17/2024-5.0%-4.7%9.0%
3/13/2024-7.6%-1.1%-3.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111114
# Negative141411
Median Positive2.2%5.8%8.3%
Median Negative-4.1%-3.7%-4.9%
Max Positive13.8%31.7%38.8%
Max Negative-7.6%-5.0%-13.6%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
83120251003202510-Q 8/31/2025
5312025701202510-Q 5/31/2025
2282025404202510-Q 2/28/2025
11302024123202510-K 11/30/2024
83120241002202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024628202410-Q 5/31/2024
2292024329202410-Q 2/29/2024
11302023126202410-K 11/30/2023
8312023929202310-Q 8/31/2023
5312023630202310-Q 5/31/2023
2282023404202310-Q 2/28/2023
11302022126202310-K 11/30/2022
83120221004202210-Q 8/31/2022
5312022701202210-Q 5/31/2022
2282022401202210-Q 2/28/2022
11302021128202210-K 11/30/2021