JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Market Price (6/18/2026): $334.07 | Market Cap: $907.4 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Market Price (6/18/2026): $334.07Market Cap: $907.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -37% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 79 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 16% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, Digital & Alternative Assets, AI in Financial Services, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -58%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -58% Key risksJPM key risks include [1] substantial legal and reputational exposure from intensified government scrutiny over historical client activities, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -37% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 79 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, Digital & Alternative Assets, AI in Financial Services, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -58%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -58% |
| Key risksJPM key risks include [1] substantial legal and reputational exposure from intensified government scrutiny over historical client activities, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stock has gained about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. JPMorgan Chase reported stronger-than-expected financial results for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026). The company announced a net income of $16.5 billion, representing a 13% increase year-over-year. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $5.94, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $5.49-$5.50 by approximately 8.2% to 8.86%. Total net revenue for the quarter rose 10% year-over-year to $50.5 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectations of $48.30-$49.2 billion. The firm also achieved a robust 19% Return on Equity (ROE) and 23% Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE).
2. Robust performance in core business segments, particularly the Commercial & Investment Bank (CIB), contributed significantly to the positive trend. The CIB segment's revenue grew 19% in fiscal Q1 2026. Markets revenue reached a record $11.6 billion, marking a 20% increase year-over-year, with strong contributions from both Fixed Income Markets (up 21% to $7.1 billion) and Equity Markets (up 17% to $4.5 billion). Investment Banking fees surged 28% to $2.85-$2.88 billion, driven by higher advisory and equity underwriting fees. Additionally, the Payments business achieved $5.1 billion in revenue, up 12% year-over-year, marking its fifth consecutive record quarter.
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JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stock has gained about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. JPMorgan Chase reported stronger-than-expected financial results for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026). The company announced a net income of $16.5 billion, representing a 13% increase year-over-year. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $5.94, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $5.49-$5.50 by approximately 8.2% to 8.86%. Total net revenue for the quarter rose 10% year-over-year to $50.5 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectations of $48.30-$49.2 billion. The firm also achieved a robust 19% Return on Equity (ROE) and 23% Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE).
2. Robust performance in core business segments, particularly the Commercial & Investment Bank (CIB), contributed significantly to the positive trend. The CIB segment's revenue grew 19% in fiscal Q1 2026. Markets revenue reached a record $11.6 billion, marking a 20% increase year-over-year, with strong contributions from both Fixed Income Markets (up 21% to $7.1 billion) and Equity Markets (up 17% to $4.5 billion). Investment Banking fees surged 28% to $2.85-$2.88 billion, driven by higher advisory and equity underwriting fees. Additionally, the Payments business achieved $5.1 billion in revenue, up 12% year-over-year, marking its fifth consecutive record quarter.
3. The company maintained a strong capital position and continued to deliver substantial shareholder returns. As of March 31, 2026, JPMorgan Chase reported a standardized CET1 capital ratio of 14.3% and $291 billion in CET1 capital, well above regulatory minimums. The firm returned $8.3 billion to shareholders through net share repurchases in fiscal Q1 2026 and paid a common dividend of $4.1 billion, or $1.50 per share.
4. Positive management commentary on the U.S. economy and a favorable outlook for fee income in the upcoming quarter buoyed investor confidence. CEO Jamie Dimon noted that the U.S. economy remained resilient in fiscal Q1 2026, with healthy consumer spending and business activity. For fiscal Q2 2026, JPMorgan anticipates an 11% rise in markets revenues and nearly a 10% jump in investment banking fees, driven by persistent market volatility and an increase in deal-making activity. This outlook suggests continued strong fee income potential, supporting overall revenue growth.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.6% change in JPM stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 298.77 | 333.46 | 11.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 182,435 | 186,941 | 2.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.3% | 31.5% | 0.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.3 | 15.4 | 7.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,735 | 2,716 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JPM | 11.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.3% | 42.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 5.6% | 78.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.5% change in JPM stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 310.09 | 333.46 | 7.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 179,430 | 186,941 | 4.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.3% | 31.5% | -2.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.8 | 15.4 | 4.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,762 | 2,716 | 1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.5% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JPM | 7.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.0% | 45.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 2.2% | 81.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.8% change in JPM stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 258.96 | 333.46 | 28.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 172,842 | 186,941 | 8.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 34.5% | 31.5% | -8.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.2 | 15.4 | 25.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,819 | 2,716 | 3.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.8% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JPM | 28.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 27.2% | 50.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 7.7% | 78.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 163.1% change in JPM stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 71.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 126.74 | 333.46 | 163.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 135,357 | 186,941 | 38.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.0% | 31.5% | 1.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.0 | 15.4 | 71.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,968 | 2,716 | 9.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 163.1% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JPM | 163.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.3% | 58.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 78.6% | 83.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| JPM Return | 28% | -13% | 31% | 44% | 37% | 4% | 200% |
| Peers Return | 40% | -17% | 15% | 40% | 45% | 9% | 196% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| JPM Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 75% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 46% | 54% | 63% | 69% | 37% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| JPM Max Drawdown | -11% | -38% | -13% | -10% | -24% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -37% | -27% | -16% | -28% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BAC, MS, WFC, C, FRBT. See JPM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/17/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | JPM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -12.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 279 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 290 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 105 days |
In The Past
JPMorgan Chase's stock fell -24.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 32.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | JPM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 279 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 290 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 176 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -32.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 157 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
JPMorgan Chase's stock fell -24.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 32.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is a prominent global financial services company that provides an extensive range of banking, investment, and wealth management solutions to a diverse clientele across the world. The company operates through four primary segments: Consumer & Community Banking, Corporate & Investment Bank, Commercial Banking, and Asset & Wealth Management, each catering to specific market needs.
For individual consumers and small businesses, JPMorgan Chase offers essential services such as deposit accounts, various lending products including mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards, alongside investment and payment solutions. Its Corporate & Investment Bank segment focuses on large corporations and institutional clients, delivering sophisticated investment banking advisory, capital raising services through equity and debt markets, payment processing, risk management solutions, and comprehensive securities services like custody and fund administration.
The Commercial Banking segment provides tailored financial solutions, including lending, payments, and asset management, to midsized to large companies, local governments, and nonprofit organizations, as well as specialized commercial real estate banking services. Furthermore, through Asset & Wealth Management, JPM offers multi-asset investment management strategies to institutional clients and high-net-worth retail investors, encompassing retirement products, brokerage, and trust services. The company also maintains a robust network of digital and traditional banking services to support its clients.
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Here are a few brief analogies for JPMorgan Chase:
The **Amazon of financial services**
A **financial Walmart**
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- Retail Banking Services: Offers deposit, lending (mortgages, auto, credit card), and payment solutions for individual consumers and small businesses.
- Commercial Banking Services: Provides financial solutions, including lending, payments, investment banking, and asset management, to midsized companies, local governments, and nonprofit clients.
- Investment Banking & Advisory: Delivers corporate strategy and structure advisory, capital-raising services via equity and debt markets, and loan origination and syndication.
- Markets Services: Engages in trading cash and derivative instruments, offers risk management solutions, and provides prime brokerage services for institutional clients.
- Asset Management: Manages multi-asset investment solutions, including equities, fixed income, and alternatives, for institutional clients and retail investors.
- Wealth Management: Furnishes comprehensive financial planning, brokerage, trusts, loans, and investment management products for high-net-worth individuals.
- Treasury & Payment Services: Manages payments, cash flow, and cross-border financing for corporate and institutional clients.
- Securities Services: Provides custody, fund accounting and administration, and securities lending products for asset managers, insurance companies, and investment funds.
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The following are major suppliers for JPMorgan Chase (JPM):
- Visa Inc. (V)
- Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
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Jamie Dimon, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Jamie Dimon has served as CEO of JPMorgan Chase since 2005 and Chairman since 2006. Prior to JPMorgan Chase, he began his professional career at American Express and was a key member of the team that launched Commercial Credit Company. He served as Chief Financial Officer and then President of Commercial Credit, which made numerous acquisitions and divestitures, including acquiring Primerica Corporation and The Travelers Corporation. Dimon served as President and Chief Operating Officer of Travelers from 1990 through 1998, concurrently serving as Chief Operating Officer of its Smith Barney Inc. subsidiary. He became Chief Executive Officer of Smith Barney in 1996 and then co-Chairman and co-Chief Executive Officer of the combined brokerage after the 1997 merger of Smith Barney and Salomon Brothers. In 1998, Dimon was named President of Citigroup Inc. In 2000, he was named Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Bank One, which he led until its merger with JPMorgan Chase in 2004.
Jeremy Barnum, Chief Financial Officer
Jeremy Barnum is the Chief Financial Officer for JPMorgan Chase & Co., appointed in May 2021. He is responsible for global financial operations, budgeting, forecasting, and investor relations. Since joining JPMorgan Chase in 1994, Barnum has held numerous leadership roles, including Head of Global Research for the Corporate & Investment Bank (CIB) and Chief Financial Officer of the CIB from 2013 to 2021. He briefly left JPMorgan in 2004 and worked for BlueMountain Capital as head of its London office before returning to JPMorgan in 2007.
Mary Callahan Erdoes, CEO, Asset & Wealth Management
Mary Callahan Erdoes is the Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Asset Management business, overseeing a global leader in investment management and private banking. She joined J.P. Morgan in 1996 from Meredith, Martin & Kaye, a fixed income specialty advisory firm.
Jennifer Piepszak, Chief Operating Officer
Jennifer Piepszak serves as the Chief Operating Officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. She has been with JPMorgan Chase for 28 years and previously served as the firm's Chief Financial Officer from May 2019. Prior to her CFO role, Piepszak spent seven years in Consumer & Community Banking (CCB), holding positions such as CEO of Card Services, CEO of Business Banking, and CFO for Mortgage Banking.
Troy Rohrbaugh, Co-CEO, Commercial & Investment Bank
Troy Rohrbaugh serves as Co-CEO of JPMorgan Chase's Commercial & Investment Bank (CIB), with a focus on markets and securities services. He has held various senior roles within the firm's markets business.
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The primary risks to JPMorgan Chase's business include broad economic and market downturns, stringent regulatory and legal oversight, and pervasive cybersecurity threats.
- Economic and Market Risks: JPMorgan Chase is significantly exposed to adverse economic conditions and market volatility. This includes potential negative impacts from factors such as increased inflation, higher interest rates, and overall economic downturns, which can lead to increased delinquencies and credit losses across its diverse lending portfolios, including consumer and commercial loans. Fluctuations in interest rates, credit spreads, and general market volatility can also materially affect the firm's investment and market-making positions, potentially reducing earnings and asset management fees.
- Regulatory and Legal Risks: Operating as a globally systemically important financial institution (G-SIFI), JPMorgan Chase faces extensive and evolving regulatory scrutiny across multiple jurisdictions. Changes in laws, rules, and regulations can significantly impact its operations, increase compliance costs, and constrain strategic initiatives. The firm is also subject to ongoing regulatory investigations and potential legal proceedings that could result in substantial penalties, operational restrictions, and reputational damage.
- Cybersecurity Threats and Operational/Technology Risks: JPMorgan Chase faces persistent and evolving cybersecurity threats, including data breaches and system failures. These incidents can disrupt operations, compromise sensitive customer data (as seen in past breaches affecting millions of records), damage the firm's reputation, and lead to significant financial losses. The increasing reliance on complex technology, including Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) architecture and third-party vendors, introduces additional operational vulnerabilities and potential systemic risks that could lead to widespread service disruptions.
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- Fintech and Neobanks: Digital-first financial technology companies and challenger banks are increasingly offering agile, user-friendly, and often lower-cost alternatives to traditional banking services across deposits, payments, lending, and investment products. These firms threaten JPMorgan Chase's market share, particularly in its Consumer & Community Banking and Commercial Banking segments, by attracting customers with superior digital experiences and specialized offerings.
- Big Tech in Financial Services: Companies such as Apple, Google, and Amazon are leveraging their immense user bases, technological platforms, and data capabilities to increasingly offer financial products and services directly to consumers (e.g., payments, credit cards, lending to small businesses). While often partnering with banks for regulatory compliance, Big Tech's growing involvement threatens JPMorgan Chase's direct customer relationships and its role as the primary interface for financial interactions, especially within its Consumer & Community Banking segment.
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JPMorgan Chase & Co. operates across diverse financial services, addressing substantial markets globally and within the U.S. for its main products and services. The estimated addressable market sizes for these offerings in 2024 are as follows:
Consumer & Community Banking (CCB)
- Retail Banking: The global retail banking market was estimated at USD 2,039.25 billion in 2024, with projections to reach USD 3,373.43 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.8% from 2025 to 2033. In the U.S., the retail banking market generated an estimated revenue of USD 454.3 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 678.3 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 4.6% from 2025 to 2033. Another estimate places the U.S. retail banking market size at USD 870 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 1,112.2 billion by 2031 with a CAGR of 4.17% from 2026 to 2031. North America held a significant share of 38.02% of the global retail banking market, which was valued at USD 4.26 trillion in 2025.
- Credit Card Services: The global credit cards market was valued at USD 1,282.49 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 1,771.55 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 4.8% during the forecast period. Another report indicates the global credit card market size was USD 559.18 billion in 2023, with an expectation to reach USD 1,146.62 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 7.45%. The global credit card payments market size was estimated at USD 622.76 billion in 2024 and is predicted to surpass USD 1,433.49 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 8.69% from 2025 to 2034. North America is anticipated to maintain the largest share of the global credit card market.
- Mortgage Origination and Servicing (Residential Mortgages): Total U.S. mortgage originations across all loan purposes amounted to $1.82 trillion in 2024. The U.S. home mortgage market size was valued at approximately USD 180.91 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 501.67 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 12.00% between 2024 and 2032.
Corporate & Investment Bank (CIB)
- Investment Banking: The global investment banking market size was valued at USD 111.0 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 221.89 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 8.0% during the forecast period (2026-2033). Another source reported the global investment banking market was valued at USD 184.91 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 334.27 billion by 2030, rising at a CAGR of 10.43%. For the U.S., the investment banking market was estimated at USD 45.0 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 112.0 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 8.6% from 2025 to 2035. North America is a dominant player in the global investment banking market, holding over 34% share in 2023.
- Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) Advisory: Global M&A deal value rose by 10% to USD 3.2 trillion in fiscal year 2024, with the U.S. accounting for 45% of the total deal volume.
- Debt Capital Markets (DCM): Global debt capital market activity reached USD 10.7 trillion in fiscal year 2024, marking a 20% increase year-over-year.
- Equity Capital Markets (ECM): Global equity capital market activity rose to USD 638 billion in fiscal year 2024, a 19% increase year-over-year, with the U.S. contributing 38% of total issuances.
Commercial Banking (CB)
- Commercial Banking Services: The global commercial banking market size was valued at USD 3.78 trillion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 12.67 trillion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 14.4% during the forecast period (2026-2033). Another estimate places the global commercial banking market size at $3.9 trillion in 2024.
- Commercial Real Estate Banking Services: Total commercial real estate (CRE) mortgage borrowing and lending in the U.S. is estimated to have totaled USD 498 billion in 2024, a 16% increase from 2023. The total level of commercial mortgage debt in the U.S. has risen to $4.70 trillion as of Q1 2024.
Asset & Wealth Management (AWM)
- Asset Management: The global asset management industry's assets under management (AuM) grew to a record-breaking $128 trillion in 2024, a 12% increase from the previous year. North American managers reached $88.2 trillion in AUM at the end of 2024, representing 63% of all assets managed by the 500 largest firms globally. In terms of revenue, the global asset management market size was valued at USD 469 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 29.9% between 2025 and 2034.
- Wealth Management: The total financial wealth of all U.S. households exceeded $90 trillion by year-end 2024. Advice revenues in the U.S. wealth management industry grew to an estimated $260 billion in 2024. North America leads the wealth management platform market with a valuation of USD 7.5 billion in 2024.
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JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives across its diversified financial services segments:
- Expansion of Consumer & Community Banking (CCB): JPMorgan Chase plans to expand its physical branch network, opening over 160 new branches in 2026 and renovating hundreds more as part of a multiyear strategy. This expansion is designed to capture greater market share in retail deposits, with an aim to reach a 15% national retail deposit share, up from 11.3% as of the end of 2024. The company also anticipates continued robust growth in new credit card accounts, targeting approximately 10 million new accounts per year, and higher revolving balances in its Card Services and Auto segments.
- Growth in Corporate & Investment Bank (CIB) Activities: The firm intends to increase its investment banking revenue by strategically focusing on key client segments, including private-equity clients, Silicon Valley startups, and midsize companies. Investment banking fees have already shown strong year-on-year growth, driven by an increase in underwriting and advisory activities. JPMorgan Chase has been actively hiring investment bankers since 2022 to support this growth.
- Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) Expansion: Revenue growth in this segment is anticipated from strong net client inflows, which have been positive across all channels, regions, and asset classes. The company has seen significant increases in assets under management and client assets, with a long-term target of $10 trillion in client assets. JPMorgan Chase is also making substantial investments in innovation within this segment, particularly in fast-growing areas such as active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
- Sustained Net Interest Income (NII) powered by a supportive macro environment: JPMorgan Chase forecasts continued growth in its net interest income. For 2026, the company expects Net Interest Income excluding Markets to be approximately $95 billion, and total Net Interest Income to be around $103 billion. This outlook is supported by a resilient consumer base and a generally favorable macroeconomic environment.
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Share Repurchases
- JPMorgan Chase authorized a new common share repurchase program of $50 billion, effective July 1, 2025.
- Annual share repurchases amounted to $31.591 billion in 2025 and $18.83 billion in 2024.
- A $30 billion share repurchase program was authorized, effective July 1, 2024.
Share Issuance
- The total number of outstanding shares generally declined, from 2.97 billion in 2021 to 2.782 billion in 2025, primarily due to share repurchases.
Outbound Investments
- In May 2023, JPMorgan Chase acquired the substantial majority of assets and assumed deposits of First Republic Bank, an acquisition expected to generate over $500 million of incremental net income per year.
- The company made a total of 21 acquisitions, with peak activity including 5 acquisitions in 2021 and 3 in 2022, encompassing areas like fintech, wealth management, and strategic solutions.
- The Strategic Financing Solutions unit of JPMorgan Chase has deployed over $10 billion across 100 direct-lending transactions since 2021 and the firm announced plans in October 2025 to invest up to $10 billion directly into selected U.S. companies over the next decade, focusing on critical industries.
Capital Expenditures
- Technology spending, a significant portion of capital expenditures, was approximately $18 billion in 2025 and is projected to increase to roughly $19.8 billion in 2026.
- The technology budget for 2024 was $17 billion.
- These expenditures are primarily focused on technology and AI, including investments in cloud infrastructure, cybersecurity, data systems, and the development of new products, features, and customer platforms.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 113.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 351.2 |
| Rev LTM | 88,089 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | -3,950 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -19,034 |
| CFO LTM | -1,011 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -15,765 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -1.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -28.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -5.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -33.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 351.2 |
| P/S | 3.5 |
| P/Op Inc | - |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 15.4 |
| P/CFO | -8.1 |
| Total Yield | 6.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -11.0% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | -0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 18.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 28.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 131.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 63.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial & Investment Bank | 78,454 | 70,114 | 64,353 | 48,102 | 51,749 |
| Consumer & Community Banking | 76,029 | 71,507 | 70,148 | 54,814 | 50,073 |
| Asset & Wealth Management | 24,073 | 21,578 | 19,827 | 17,748 | 16,957 |
| Corporate | 7,025 | 17,394 | 8,038 | 80 | -3,483 |
| Reconciling Items | -3,134 | -3,037 | -4,262 | -3,582 | -3,655 |
| Commercial Banking | 11,533 | 10,008 | |||
| Total | 182,447 | 177,556 | 158,104 | 128,695 | 121,649 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer & Community Banking | 15,852 | 15,239 | 17,849 | 17,381 | |
| Commercial & Investment Bank | 11,849 | 11,521 | 12,713 | 12,955 | |
| Commercial Banking | 3,562 | 4,376 | 4,278 | 4,395 | 3,932 |
| Asset Management | 3,229 | 3,486 | 3,239 | 2,756 | 2,474 |
| Corporate | -700 | ||||
| Reconciling Items | -3,090 | -3,718 | -3,192 | -2,859 | -2,533 |
| Corporate/Private Equity | -1,112 | -8,973 | -5,711 | 30 | |
| Card Services | 7,475 | ||||
| Investment Bank | 10,444 | ||||
| Retail Financial Services | 3,081 | ||||
| Treasury & Securities Services | 1,846 | ||||
| Total | 30,702 | 29,792 | 25,914 | 28,917 | 26,749 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial & Investment Bank | 27,761 | 24,846 | 20,272 | 14,925 | 21,134 |
| Consumer & Community Banking | 18,245 | 17,603 | 21,232 | 14,916 | 20,930 |
| Asset & Wealth Management | 6,522 | 5,421 | 5,227 | 4,365 | 4,737 |
| Corporate | 4,520 | 10,601 | 2,821 | -743 | -3,713 |
| Reconciling Items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Commercial Banking | 4,213 | 5,246 | |||
| Total | 57,048 | 58,471 | 49,552 | 37,676 | 48,334 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial & Investment Bank | 2,142,534 | 1,773,194 | 1,638,493 | 1,334,296 | 1,259,896 |
| Corporate | 1,329,632 | 1,323,967 | 1,348,437 | 1,328,219 | 1,518,100 |
| Consumer & Community Banking | 664,669 | 650,268 | 642,951 | 514,085 | 500,370 |
| Asset & Wealth Management | 288,065 | 255,385 | 245,512 | 232,037 | 234,425 |
| Commercial Banking | 257,106 | 230,776 | |||
| Total | 4,424,900 | 4,002,814 | 3,875,393 | 3,665,743 | 3,743,567 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $333.46 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 905.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/30/1983 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $308.52 | $305.04 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 8.1% | 9.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 23.1% | 22.0% |
| Downside Capture | 37.32 | 102.46 |
| Upside Capture | 74.62 | 102.48 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 41.6% | 50.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.02 | 0.86 | 0.83 | 1.03 | 1.01 | 0.90 |
| Up Beta | 1.22 | 0.92 | 1.16 | 1.12 | 1.05 | 0.87 |
| Down Beta | 0.49 | 0.90 | 0.76 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.93 |
| Up Capture | 25% | 45% | 53% | 88% | 103% | 91% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 21 | 33 | 63 | 137 | 426 |
| Down Capture | 232% | 152% | 89% | 125% | 116% | 95% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 30 | 61 | 113 | 324 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JPM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | 25.9% | 21.9% | 0.96 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 8.7% | 14.6% | 0.35 | 78.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 24.5% | 12.4% | 1.48 | 50.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.7% | 27.5% | 0.79 | 13.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 22.7% | 18.9% | 0.95 | -10.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.6% | 13.8% | 0.49 | 31.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -38.7% | 42.4% | -1.04 | 25.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JPM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | 18.7% | 24.5% | 0.68 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.6% | 18.6% | 0.39 | 85.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 62.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.9% | 18.3% | 0.75 | 4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | 13.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 43.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.3% | 54.2% | 0.42 | 25.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JPM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | 20.9% | 27.4% | 0.73 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.0% | 22.2% | 0.54 | 91.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 70.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.4% | 16.1% | 0.63 | -4.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 24.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 53.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.4% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 16.9% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/14/2026 | -0.8% | 1.1% | -2.8% |
| 1/13/2026 | -4.2% | -6.7% | -4.2% |
| 10/14/2025 | -1.9% | -1.8% | 2.5% |
| 7/15/2025 | -0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| 4/11/2025 | 4.0% | 2.1% | 14.5% |
| 1/15/2025 | 2.0% | 6.2% | 11.7% |
| 10/11/2024 | 4.4% | 5.4% | 11.3% |
| 7/12/2024 | -1.2% | 1.2% | -0.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 13 | 19 |
| # Negative | 15 | 11 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -3.2% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 9.2% | 23.7% |
| Max Negative | -6.5% | -13.8% | -10.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/14/2026 | -0.8% | 1.1% | -2.8% |
| 1/13/2026 | -4.2% | -6.7% | -4.2% |
| 10/14/2025 | -1.9% | -1.8% | 2.5% |
| 7/15/2025 | -0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| 4/11/2025 | 4.0% | 2.1% | 14.5% |
| 1/15/2025 | 2.0% | 6.2% | 11.7% |
| 10/11/2024 | 4.4% | 5.4% | 11.3% |
| 7/12/2024 | -1.2% | 1.2% | -0.8% |
| 4/12/2024 | -6.5% | -7.3% | 1.7% |
| 1/12/2024 | -0.7% | 0.0% | 3.2% |
| 10/13/2023 | 1.5% | -0.4% | 0.4% |
| 7/14/2023 | 0.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% |
| 4/14/2023 | 7.6% | 9.2% | 4.0% |
| 1/13/2023 | 2.5% | -3.2% | 2.2% |
| 10/14/2022 | 1.7% | 6.2% | 23.7% |
| 7/14/2022 | -3.5% | 2.4% | 7.4% |
| 4/13/2022 | -3.2% | 0.0% | -10.3% |
| 1/14/2022 | -6.1% | -13.8% | -9.4% |
| 10/13/2021 | -2.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| 7/13/2021 | -1.5% | -7.0% | 0.8% |
| 4/14/2021 | -1.9% | -3.1% | 2.2% |
| 1/15/2021 | -1.8% | -5.2% | 2.5% |
| 10/13/2020 | -1.6% | -2.6% | 13.7% |
| 7/14/2020 | 0.6% | -0.4% | 6.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 13 | 19 |
| # Negative | 15 | 11 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -3.2% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 9.2% | 23.7% |
| Max Negative | -6.5% | -13.8% | -10.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/23/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/25/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/04/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/20/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Friedman, Stacey | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 300.27 | 5,468 | 1,641,856 | 13,940,759 | Form |
| 2 | Erdoes, Mary E | CEO Asset & Wealth Management | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 298.36 | 6,648 | 1,983,527 | 188,685,348 | Form |
| 3 | Lake, Marianne | CEO CCB | GRATs | Sell | 5152026 | 298.36 | 6,427 | 1,917,531 | 22,794,957 | Form |
| 4 | Petno, Douglas B | Co-CEO CIB | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 300.05 | 5,659 | 1,697,983 | 67,396,931 | Form |
| 5 | Beer, Lori A | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 300.05 | 3,165 | 949,658 | 20,038,239 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Friedman, Stacey | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 300.27 | 5,468 | 1,641,856 | 13,940,759 | Form |
| 2 | Erdoes, Mary E | CEO Asset & Wealth Management | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 298.36 | 6,648 | 1,983,527 | 188,685,348 | Form |
| 3 | Lake, Marianne | CEO CCB | GRATs | Sell | 5152026 | 298.36 | 6,427 | 1,917,531 | 22,794,957 | Form |
| 4 | Petno, Douglas B | Co-CEO CIB | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 300.05 | 5,659 | 1,697,983 | 67,396,931 | Form |
| 5 | Beer, Lori A | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 300.05 | 3,165 | 949,658 | 20,038,239 | Form |
| 6 | Barnum, Jeremy | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 309.41 | 3,022 | 935,032 | 10,036,583 | Form |
| 7 | Bacon, Ashley | Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 309.42 | 4,070 | 1,259,356 | 76,980,100 | Form |
| 8 | Piepszak, Jennifer | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 309.42 | 4,919 | 1,522,037 | 26,326,081 | Form |
| 9 | Piepszak, Jennifer | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 306.56 | 9,136 | 2,800,713 | 27,590,518 | Form |
| 10 | Petno, Douglas B | Co-CEO CIB | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 306.58 | 5,660 | 1,735,219 | 117,052,786 | Form |
| 11 | Lake, Marianne | CEO CCB | GRATs | Sell | 4152026 | 306.57 | 6,427 | 1,970,304 | 40,120,984 | Form |
| 12 | Erdoes, Mary E | CEO Asset & Wealth Management | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 306.57 | 12,345 | 3,784,554 | 195,909,891 | Form |
| 13 | Beer, Lori A | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 306.59 | 3,166 | 970,660 | 21,445,266 | Form |
| 14 | Barnum, Jeremy | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 306.55 | 5,611 | 1,720,064 | 10,870,341 | Form |
| 15 | Bacon, Ashley | Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 306.55 | 7,558 | 2,316,931 | 77,513,585 | Form |
| 16 | Dimon, James | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 306.56 | 130,488 | 40,002,010 | 515,207,358 | Form |
| 17 | Leopold, Robin | Head of Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 3232026 | 295.06 | 433 | 127,761 | 19,155,295 | Form |
| 18 | Leopold, Robin | Head of Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 307.14 | 432 | 132,684 | 20,072,481 | Form |
| 19 | Rohrbaugh, Troy L | Co-CEO CIB | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 307.11 | 50,000 | 15,355,670 | 34,175,272 | Form |
| 20 | Dimon, James | Chairman & CEO | Family Trusts | Sell | 2192026 | 307.19 | 69,512 | 21,353,561 | 1,293,060,250 | Form |
| 21 | Petno, Douglas B | Co-CEO CIB | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 306.40 | 3,487 | 1,068,429 | 111,784,576 | Form |
| 22 | Erdoes, Mary E | CEO Asset & Wealth Management | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 306.41 | 5,731 | 1,756,046 | 187,954,530 | Form |
| 23 | Beer, Lori A | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 306.40 | 2,047 | 627,207 | 18,522,680 | Form |
| 24 | Barnum, Jeremy | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 306.42 | 2,892 | 886,157 | 7,293,943 | Form |
| 25 | Lake, Marianne | CEO CCB | GRATs | Sell | 2172026 | 306.41 | 3,907 | 1,197,158 | 42,070,295 | Form |
| 26 | Friedman, Stacey | General Counsel | GRAT | Sell | 2172026 | 306.40 | 3,404 | 1,042,985 | 18,981,167 | Form |
| 27 | Piepszak, Jennifer | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 312.79 | 8,571 | 2,680,888 | 22,216,244 | Form |
| 28 | Petno, Douglas B | Co-CEO CIB | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 312.80 | 3,487 | 1,090,728 | 115,461,985 | Form |
| 29 | Lake, Marianne | CEO CCB | GRATs | Sell | 1162026 | 312.78 | 3,908 | 1,222,353 | 37,857,606 | Form |
| 30 | Friedman, Stacey | General Counsel | GRAT | Sell | 1162026 | 312.80 | 3,404 | 1,064,758 | 20,442,164 | Form |
| 31 | Erdoes, Mary E | CEO Asset & Wealth Management | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 312.78 | 5,732 | 1,792,878 | 193,655,897 | Form |
| 32 | Beer, Lori A | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 312.80 | 2,047 | 640,295 | 19,549,487 | Form |
| 33 | Barnum, Jeremy | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 312.79 | 2,893 | 904,890 | 8,350,132 | Form |
| 34 | Bacon, Ashley | Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 312.79 | 7,364 | 2,303,393 | 74,180,575 | Form |
| 35 | Leopold, Robin | Head of Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 311.92 | 966 | 301,311 | 18,240,547 | Form |
| 36 | Bammann, Linda | Direct | Sell | 9022025 | 297.94 | 9,500 | 2,830,472 | 24,493,217 | Form | |
| 37 | Bacon, Ashley | Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 6122025 | 267.44 | 5,201 | 1,390,972 | 61,456,017 | Form |
| 38 | Piepszak, Jennifer | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 6052025 | 262.47 | 6,128 | 1,608,424 | 16,392,645 | Form |
| 39 | Friedman, Stacey | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 5202025 | 265.71 | 6,608 | 1,755,833 | 9,703,850 | Form |
| 40 | Friedman, Stacey | General Counsel | GRAT | Sell | 5202025 | 265.71 | 2,821 | 749,576 | 18,269,629 | Form |
| 41 | Lake, Marianne | CEO CCB | Direct | Sell | 5162025 | 267.08 | 12,274 | 3,278,087 | 16,933,668 | Form |
| 42 | Beer, Lori A | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 5162025 | 267.09 | 5,873 | 1,568,605 | 15,051,989 | Form |
| 43 | Petno, Douglas B | Co-CEO CIB | Direct | Sell | 5152025 | 266.89 | 10,141 | 2,706,562 | 94,388,044 | Form |
| 44 | Erdoes, Mary E | CEO Asset & Wealth Management | Direct | Sell | 5132025 | 262.54 | 14,055 | 3,689,941 | 159,729,406 | Form |
| 45 | Bacon, Ashley | Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 5132025 | 262.53 | 5,202 | 1,365,656 | 61,691,322 | Form |
| 46 | Rohrbaugh, Troy L | Co-CEO CIB | Direct | Sell | 5122025 | 263.08 | 12,500 | 3,288,444 | 39,757,548 | Form |
| 47 | Barnum, Jeremy | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5062025 | 250.77 | 40,014 | 10,034,435 | 4,518,179 | Form |
| 48 | Piepszak, Jennifer | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 5062025 | 250.76 | 6,129 | 1,536,931 | 17,198,127 | Form |
| 49 | Bammann, Linda | Direct | Sell | 5062025 | 250.00 | 9,500 | 2,375,000 | 22,884,796 | Form |
JPM Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 1.85x is attractive. The analysis suggests a high probability (70%) of a favorable outcome, driven by a widening competitive moat and strong execution in high-margin businesses. While the raw skew is below 1.0x, the high likelihood of the bull case materializing makes the risk/reward profile compelling, leading to an Accumulate rating.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowJPMorgan is the largest U.S. bank with a saturated market position and projected terminal revenue growth tethered to GDP. Its investment case is defined by best-in-class profitability (20% ROTCE), massive scale, and capital efficiency, fitting the 'Mature Cash Cow' archetype where margin defense and capital returns are the primary focus over hypergrowth.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis rests on JPMorgan's successful and ongoing shift of its revenue mix toward higher-margin, less capital-intensive, fee-based businesses. The Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) and Payments divisions are growing faster than the core banking segments, driving superior and more durable profitability (ROTCE) while insulating the firm's earnings from pure interest rate cyclicality.
- Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) revenue grew 13% YoY in Q4 2025, with record AUM of $4.8 Trillion (+18% YoY).
- AWM division delivered a 44% ROE and a 38% pre-tax margin, significantly outperforming the Consumer & Community Banking segment's 25% ROE.
- Payments revenue grew 9% YoY in Q4 2025, highlighting durable growth in a key fee-generating business.
- The firm generated a best-in-class 20% Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) for the full year 2025.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction is the acknowledged competitive pressure from fintech rivals in the payments and credit card ecosystems. This structural threat could lead to persistent margin compression, eroding the profitability of the very segments central to the 'Alpha Driver' thesis and potentially slowing the firm's overall earnings growth trajectory.
- CFO Jeremy Barnum explicitly 'highlighted challenges in the card ecosystem amid fintech competition' in the Q4 2025 earnings discussion.
- The Payments division experienced 'deposit margin compression' in Q4 2025, which partially offset revenue growth from higher balances and fees.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) Revenue Growth YoY | > 10% | This is the primary engine of the 'Alpha Driver' thesis. Growth below this level would indicate the high-margin mix shift is stalling. |
| Payments Division Pre-Tax Margin | Stable to Increasing QoQ | Directly monitors the 'Anti-Alpha' risk. Any sustained compression in this metric would validate the bear case that fintech competition is eroding profitability. |
| Firm-wide Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) | Consistently > 17% | The ultimate measure of capital efficiency and profitability for a bank. A drop below this best-in-class threshold would challenge the stock's premium valuation. |
Fortress Balance Sheet vs. Emerging Credit & Margin Cracks
BULL VIEW
Best-in-class execution, share gains (Apple Card), and a stable ~$103B NII forecast will power through any cyclical softness, proving its durable compounding thesis.
CORE TENSION
Can JPM's scale and execution (Bull) overcome decelerating returns, rising credit provisions for new ventures like the Apple Card, and structural fintech competition (Bear)?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The $2.2B net reserve build for the Apple Card portfolio acquisition is a direct, quantifiable signal that management sees tangible credit risk ahead.
BEAR VIEW
A macro slowdown and fintech pressure will expose credit weaknesses and erode payment margins, causing its premium Return on Equity to mean-revert lower.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
February 23, 2026 | Company Update Event Watch: 2026 Expense Guidance and Net Interest Income (NII) forecast updates. Any revision to the ~$103B NII or expense outlook is critical. |
Mid-April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Release Watch: Net Charge-Offs in Wholesale (CRE) and Consumer (Card) segments. Watch for provisions for credit losses exceeding Q4 levels. |
Next 6 Months | Antitrust Litigation Update (Normandin v. JPMorgan) Watch: Any key court ruling or announcement of a formal investigation by the Department of Justice regarding prime rate fixing allegations. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-09-18 | Investor Day Timing Announcement Details: JPMorgan announced it would provide a 'Company Update' on February 23, 2026, setting expectations for a key strategic update. | Flat (0.47%) $308.84 -> $310.31 |
2025-10-14 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: JPM reported a strong beat with CIB revenue up 17% YoY and IB fees up 16%. Despite strong results, the stock pulled back amid broader market weakness. | Slight -1.91% pullback $306.58 -> $300.72 |
2025-11-19 | Affordable Housing Initiative Details: Announced over $40 million in new philanthropic funding to help increase housing supply, extending its commitment to affordable housing. | Modest 1.29% gain $298.06 -> $301.90 |
2025-12-11 | Executive Order on Proxy Advisors Details: An Executive Order was issued scrutinizing proxy advisors like ISS and Glass Lewis, a positive development for JPM which was planning its own AI-based solution. | Rose significantly by 2.34% $308.71 -> $315.95 |
2026-01-07 | Apple Card Acquisition & AI 'Proxy IQ' Announcement Details: Announced it will become the new issuer for the Apple Card, taking over from Goldman Sachs. Also announced a shift to an in-house AI platform for proxy voting. | Fell notably by -2.28% $334.61 -> $326.99 |
2026-01-13 | Q4 2025 Earnings Report Details: JPM beat EPS and revenue estimates, but the stock fell on higher-than-expected 2026 expense guidance and a large $2.2B credit loss provision for the Apple Card portfolio. | Fell notably by -4.19% $324.49 -> $310.90 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
The stock's volatility is spiking (3M at 27% vs 1Y at 26%), signaling rising near-term risk. This, combined with our calculated Bearish sentiment, makes this a 'Knife Catch' scenario, mandating a Conservative sizing despite the widening moat.
Diversification Alternatives
MS
INDUSTRYMorgan Stanley offers a purer play on the high-margin wealth and asset management theme, which is JPM's key growth driver, but with less exposure to consumer credit risk.
BAC
INDUSTRYWhile a lower-quality operator than JPM, Bank of America offers a cheaper valuation and potentially higher torque to a positive macro inflection, given its greater consumer sensitivity.
JPMorgan Chase is leveraging its 'fortress balance sheet' and scale to navigate a normalized interest rate environment, shifting its growth engine from explosive Net Interest Income (NII) expansion toward a resurgence in fee-based Investment Banking and wealth management activities.
Filter all news through the lens of a return to traditional banking, focusing on the health of fee income and credit normalization now that the tailwind from rapidly rising rates has plateaued.
Investment Banking fees growing >15% YoY; sustained AUM inflows in Asset & Wealth Management; Net Charge-Offs remaining stable or declining sequentially; management guidance for NII ex-Markets remaining firm around the $95B level.
A sharp economic downturn causing credit provisions to spike significantly above $3B per quarter; a material decline in Investment Banking league table rankings; significant deposit outflows to competitors or money market funds.
Minor fluctuations in quarterly trading revenue, which is inherently volatile; modest sequential changes in Net Interest Margin (NIM) as the rate environment has stabilized; typical M&A rumors that don't involve a major strategic shift.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the sustained rebound in capital markets activity, which directly boosts high-margin Investment Banking fees. Management has guided for a significant year-over-year increase in these fees. This, combined with maintaining industry-leading scale and efficiency, allows the bank to generate strong returns even as the dramatic growth in Net Interest Income normalizes.
Commercial & Investment Bank (CIB)
$93.6B TTM (46% of Total) · 21% MarginWhat It Is
Advisory services for M&A; debt and equity underwriting; sales & trading in fixed income and equities; corporate payments and treasury solutions.
Who Pays & How
Global corporations, governments, and institutions pay fees for capital raising and strategic advice. The bank's scale, global reach, and 'fortress balance sheet' create deep, integrated relationships with high switching costs.
Competition
Consumer & Community Banking (CCB)
$78.4B TTM (39% of Total) · 32% MarginWhat It Is
Checking/savings accounts, credit cards (Chase Sapphire, etc.), mortgages, auto loans, and small business banking services.
Who Pays & How
Millions of U.S. consumers and small businesses pay through net interest margin on deposits and loans, and through annual/service fees. The vast physical branch and ATM network, combined with a leading digital app, creates convenience and high customer stickiness.
Competition
Asset & Wealth Management (AWM)
$26.0B TTM (13% of Total) · 38% MarginWhat It Is
Investment management for institutional and retail clients; private banking and wealth management services for high-net-worth individuals.
Who Pays & How
Institutions and high-net-worth individuals pay a percentage-based fee on assets under management (AUM) for investment expertise and financial planning. The J.P. Morgan brand is synonymous with premier wealth management, creating strong client trust and retention.
Competition
Commercial Banking (CB)
$0.0B TTM (2% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Lending, treasury services, and investment banking services for mid-sized U.S. companies.
Who Pays & How
Mid-sized businesses pay through net interest margin on loans and deposits, and fees for services. JPM provides a 'one-stop shop' for companies as they scale, offering more sophisticated services than smaller banks.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Diversified Banks Resources |
| Retail Banker International |
| International Banker |
| Global Finance Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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