Tearsheet

Walt Disney (DIS)


Market Price (5/2/2026): $103.05 | Market Cap: $184.0 Bil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment

Walt Disney (DIS)


Market Price (5/2/2026): $103.05
Market Cap: $184.0 Bil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Movies & Entertainment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 16 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.1 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 8.5 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Experiential Retail, Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -69%

Key risks
DIS key risks include [1] the decline of its highly profitable linear networks, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 16 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.1 Bil
2 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 8.5 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Experiential Retail, Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -69%
6 Key risks
DIS key risks include [1] the decline of its highly profitable linear networks, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -8.6% change in DIS stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -8.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120265012026Change
Stock Price ($)112.80103.08-8.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)94,42595,7161.4%
Net Income Margin (%)13.1%12.8%-2.6%
P/E Multiple16.415.0-8.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,7981,7860.7%
Cumulative Contribution-8.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 5/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
DIS-8.6% 
Market (SPY)3.6%56.4%
Sector (XLC)-2.5%53.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The -7.9% change in DIS stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120255012026Change
Stock Price ($)111.86103.08-7.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)94,53595,7161.2%
Net Income Margin (%)12.2%12.8%4.8%
P/E Multiple17.415.0-13.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,7991,7860.7%
Cumulative Contribution-7.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 5/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
DIS-7.9% 
Market (SPY)5.5%42.0%
Sector (XLC)2.3%47.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 14.6% change in DIS stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 110.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)43020255012026Change
Stock Price ($)89.96103.0814.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)92,50295,7163.5%
Net Income Margin (%)6.1%12.8%110.9%
P/E Multiple29.015.0-48.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,8121,7861.5%
Cumulative Contribution14.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2025 to 5/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
DIS14.6% 
Market (SPY)30.4%43.9%
Sector (XLC)23.8%44.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 2.9% change in DIS stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 225.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)43020235012026Change
Stock Price ($)100.14103.082.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)84,41595,71613.4%
Net Income Margin (%)3.9%12.8%225.5%
P/E Multiple55.015.0-72.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,8251,7862.2%
Cumulative Contribution2.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2023 to 5/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
DIS2.9% 
Market (SPY)78.7%49.4%
Sector (XLC)101.4%48.6%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
DIS Return-15%-44%4%24%3%-9%-41%
Peers Return16%-40%30%34%44%-2%72%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%5%92%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DIS Win Rate42%33%50%50%42%25% 
Peers Win Rate48%37%52%62%58%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DIS Max Drawdown-22%-46%-9%-5%-27%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-11%-49%-2%-14%-15%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-7% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NFLX, CMCSA, WBD, FOXA, LYV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/1/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventDISS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-26.6%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven36.3%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven35 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-11.7%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven13.3%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven66 days18 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-18.4%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven22.6%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven254 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-39.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven64.8%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven231 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-13.5%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven15.6%23.7%
  Time to Breakeven106 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-18.0%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven22.0%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven329 days62 days

Compare to NFLX, CMCSA, WBD, FOXA, LYV

In The Past

Walt Disney's stock fell -26.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 36.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventDISS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-26.6%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven36.3%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven35 days79 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-39.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven64.8%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven231 days140 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-28.7%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven40.2%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven123 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-51.8%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven107.4%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven281 days1085 days

Compare to NFLX, CMCSA, WBD, FOXA, LYV

In The Past

Walt Disney's stock fell -26.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 36.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Walt Disney (DIS)

The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment company worldwide. It operates through two segments, Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution; and Disney Parks, Experiences and Products. The company engages in the film and episodic television content production and distribution activities, as well as operates television broadcast networks under the ABC, Disney, ESPN, Freeform, FX, Fox, National Geographic, and Star brands; and studios that produces motion pictures under the Walt Disney Pictures, Twentieth Century Studios, Marvel, Lucasfilm, Pixar, and Searchlight Pictures banners. It also offers direct-to-consumer streaming services through Disney+, Disney+ Hotstar, ESPN+, Hulu, and Star+; sale/licensing of film and television content to third-party television and subscription video-on-demand services; theatrical, home entertainment, and music distribution services; staging and licensing of live entertainment events; and post-production services by Industrial Light & Magic and Skywalker Sound. In addition, the company operates theme parks and resorts, such as Walt Disney World Resort in Florida; Disneyland Resort in California; Disneyland Paris; Hong Kong Disneyland Resort; and Shanghai Disney Resort; Disney Cruise Line, Disney Vacation Club, National Geographic Expeditions, and Adventures by Disney as well as Aulani, a Disney resort and spa in Hawaii; licenses its intellectual property to a third party for the operations of the Tokyo Disney Resort; and provides consumer products, which include licensing of trade names, characters, visual, literary, and other IP for use on merchandise, published materials, and games. Further, it sells branded merchandise through retail, online, and wholesale businesses; and develops and publishes books, comic books, and magazines. The Walt Disney Company was founded in 1923 and is based in Burbank, California.

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Here are a few brief analogies for The Walt Disney Company (DIS):

  • Netflix meets Universal Studios.
  • Comcast for family entertainment.
  • Warner Bros. Discovery with global theme parks and cruise lines.

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  • Film and Television Production: Produces motion pictures and episodic television content through its various renowned studios.
  • Television Broadcast Networks: Operates a portfolio of broadcast and cable television channels, including ABC, ESPN, and Disney Channel.
  • Direct-to-Consumer Streaming Services: Offers subscription streaming platforms such as Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ for on-demand entertainment.
  • Theme Parks and Resorts: Manages and operates world-famous theme parks and integrated resort destinations across the globe.
  • Cruise Line and Vacation Experiences: Provides themed cruise vacations, guided adventures, and luxury resort stays.
  • Consumer Products and Licensing: Licenses its intellectual property for merchandise, games, and published materials, and sells branded consumer goods.
  • Live Entertainment: Stages and licenses live entertainment events based on its popular franchises.

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The Walt Disney Company (DIS) primarily sells its products and services to **individuals**. While a significant portion of its revenue comes from business-to-business activities (e.g., content licensing, advertising sales), the core of its brand and its most direct interactions are with individual consumers and families through its theme parks, streaming services, movies, and merchandise. Here are the major categories of customers that The Walt Disney Company serves:
  1. Individual Consumers and Families

    This is the broadest and most direct customer base for Disney. It includes:
    • Visitors to its global theme parks and resorts (e.g., Walt Disney World, Disneyland, Disneyland Paris).
    • Subscribers to its direct-to-consumer streaming services (e.g., Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+).
    • Guests on its Disney Cruise Line voyages and participants in other travel experiences (e.g., Adventures by Disney, National Geographic Expeditions).
    • Purchasers of its film and episodic content (e.g., moviegoers, home entertainment buyers).
    • Consumers who buy Disney-branded merchandise (e.g., toys, apparel, books, games) through retail stores, online platforms, or direct channels.
  2. Media Distribution and Advertising Partners

    This category encompasses businesses that distribute Disney's content or advertise on its platforms:
    • **Cable, Satellite, and Telecommunication Providers:** Companies that carry Disney's television networks (e.g., ABC, ESPN, FX) to their subscribers.
    • **Third-Party Streaming Services:** Other streaming platforms or international broadcasters that license Disney's film and television content.
    • **Movie Theaters/Exhibitors:** Chains and independent cinemas that exhibit Disney's motion pictures worldwide.
    • **Advertisers:** Businesses across various industries that purchase advertising space and time on Disney's broadcast networks, sports channels, and ad-supported streaming tiers to reach their target audiences.
  3. Licensing and Wholesale Partners

    This category includes businesses that utilize Disney's intellectual property or distribute its physical products:
    • **Merchandise Licensees:** Manufacturers of toys, clothing, video games, published materials (books, comics), and other consumer products that license Disney's vast portfolio of characters, brands, and stories.
    • **Retailers:** Companies that purchase Disney-branded merchandise on a wholesale basis for resale in their own retail stores (both brick-and-mortar and online).
    • **Theme Park Operators (Third-Party):** Notably, Oriental Land Co., Ltd. (TYO: 4661), which licenses Disney's intellectual property for the operation of Tokyo Disney Resort.
    • **Other Production Companies:** Film studios and production houses that may utilize post-production services from Industrial Light & Magic or Skywalker Sound.

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Robert A. Iger, Chief Executive Officer

Robert A. Iger returned as Chief Executive Officer of The Walt Disney Company in November 2022, having previously served in the role from 2005 to 2020. Prior to his initial CEO tenure, he was Disney's President and Chief Operating Officer from 2000-2005, and before that, Chairman of the Disney-owned ABC Group from 1996. Earlier in his career, he served as President of the American Broadcasting Company (ABC) and President and Chief Operating Officer of Capital Cities/ABC until its acquisition by Disney. During his leadership, Iger oversaw significant acquisitions including Pixar (2006), Marvel Entertainment (2009), Lucasfilm (2012), and 21st Century Fox (2019). He is also the author of the New York Times best-selling book "The Ride of a Lifetime: Lessons Learned from 15 Years as CEO of The Walt Disney Company."

Hugh Johnston, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Hugh Johnston was appointed Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of The Walt Disney Company in December 2023. Before joining Disney, Johnston had a 34-year career at PepsiCo, where he served as Vice Chairman since 2015 and Chief Financial Officer since 2010. His extensive experience at PepsiCo included roles such as Executive Vice President, Global Operations; President, Pepsi-Cola North America; Senior Vice President, Transformation; Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, PepsiCo Beverages and Foods; and Senior Vice President, Mergers and Acquisitions. He also served as Vice President, Retail at Merck & Co. from 1999 to 2002. Johnston played a pivotal role in fending off activist investor Nelson Peltz's calls for a merger or split of PepsiCo. He currently serves on the boards of Microsoft Corp. and HCA Healthcare, and is a director for the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Alan Bergman, Co-Chairman, Disney Entertainment

As Co-Chairman of Disney Entertainment, Alan Bergman oversees Disney's global portfolio of entertainment media and content businesses, including its streaming operations and renowned filmmaking studios like Walt Disney Animation Studios, Pixar, Marvel Studios, and Lucasfilm. His responsibilities also encompass the marketing, operations, technology, and theatrical distribution for these brands, as well as the Disney Music Group and Disney Theatrical Group. Bergman joined The Walt Disney Company in 1996 as a Director in the corporate controllership group. He became Chief Financial Officer of The Walt Disney Studios in 2001, President of the group from 2005 to 2019, Chairman from 2020 to 2023, and Co-Chairman with Alan Horn from 2019 to 2020. He was instrumental in leading the integrations of Pixar Animation Studios, Marvel Studios, Lucasfilm, and the Fox film studios.

Josh D'Amaro, Chairman, Disney Experiences

Josh D'Amaro has served as Chairman of Disney Experiences since 2020, a role in which he oversees Disney's global hub of theme parks, resorts, Disney Cruise Line, Disney Vacation Club, and Walt Disney Imagineering. D'Amaro joined Disney in 1998 at the Disneyland Resort. Throughout his career, he has held various leadership positions across finance, business strategy, marketing, creative development, and operations, including President of Disneyland Resort and President of Walt Disney World Resort. He has been instrumental in expanding Disney's iconic franchises through the creation of immersive, story-driven experiences such as Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge and the Marvel-themed Avengers Campus. D'Amaro is slated to succeed Robert A. Iger as Chief Executive Officer of The Walt Disney Company on March 18, 2026.

Horacio Gutierrez, Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Legal and Global Affairs Officer

Horacio Gutierrez joined The Walt Disney Company in February 2022 as Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Legal and Global Affairs Officer. In this role, he oversees Disney's global legal, compliance, and regulatory affairs, and provides strategic counsel to executive leadership and the Board of Directors. Before his tenure at Disney, Gutierrez served as Head of Global Affairs and Chief Legal Officer for Spotify. Prior to Spotify, he spent 17 years at Microsoft, where he held various legal leadership positions, including Corporate Vice President and General Counsel, overseeing the company's legal affairs worldwide. He initially joined Microsoft in 1998 as a Corporate Attorney for Latin America. Gutierrez currently serves on the board of directors for the Motion Picture Association (MPA) and the nongovernmental organization Kids in Need of Defense (KIND).

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The Walt Disney Company (DIS) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from the evolving media landscape and consumer spending patterns.

  1. Challenges in the Direct-to-Consumer (Streaming) Segment: Disney's streaming services, including Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, have historically incurred significant operating losses, totaling approximately $11 billion since the launch of Disney+. Despite recent reports indicating that Disney's direct-to-consumer operations achieved profitability in late fiscal year 2024 and early fiscal year 2025, sustaining this profitability remains challenging due to intense competition from other streaming giants like Netflix, Amazon, and Warner Bros. Discovery, which leads to escalating content costs. Furthermore, subscriber growth has slowed, with some instances of subscriber losses. The streaming segment's profitability and growth are crucial as it is expected to offset the decline of Disney's traditional media businesses.
  2. Decline of Linear Television Networks: The company's traditional linear television networks (such as ABC, ESPN, and Freeform) are experiencing a structural and rapid decline in revenue and profitability due to widespread cord-cutting and a fundamental shift in consumer preferences toward streaming content. Recent reports indicate consistent decreases in Linear Networks revenue and operating income, with sales dropping 6% and profits falling 38% in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, and revenue declines of 13%, 15%, and 16% in consecutive quarters in early fiscal year 2026. This ongoing decline poses a significant challenge to Disney's overall financial performance, as streaming growth has not yet fully compensated for these losses. Additionally, carriage disputes, like the past standoff with YouTube TV, can further impact ESPN's distribution and revenue.
  3. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Consumer Spending on Parks and Experiences: Disney's Parks, Experiences and Products segment is highly susceptible to macroeconomic factors such as inflation, potential economic downturns, and changes in consumer discretionary spending. There are growing concerns regarding the price sensitivity of consumers, with some reports indicating that the rising cost of Disney vacations has led to flat or decreased attendance at domestic theme parks in certain periods. Surveys have even revealed that a significant portion of consumers may incur debt to fund Disney trips, and many consider such vacations financially out of reach. Although increased per-guest spending has sometimes mitigated attendance dips, sustained economic pressures could negatively impact this trend. Furthermore, competition from other theme park operators, such as Universal's upcoming Epic Universe park, and unpredictable events like natural disasters, also pose risks to attendance and revenue for this segment.

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The rapid advancement and accessibility of generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools (for scriptwriting, visual effects, animation, voice synthesis, and music composition) pose an emerging threat to Disney's traditional content production model. AI can significantly reduce the cost and time required to produce high-quality media, potentially democratizing content creation and intensifying competition from smaller studios or individual creators who can leverage these tools. This could devalue the massive investments in talent and infrastructure that Disney currently employs across its film studios (Walt Disney Pictures, Marvel, Lucasfilm, Pixar, etc.) and television production, fundamentally altering the economics of content creation and distribution.

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The Walt Disney Company (DIS) operates across several large addressable markets globally for its main products and services:

  • Film and Episodic Television Content Production and Distribution: The global movie and entertainment market generated a revenue of approximately USD 100,377.6 million in 2023 and is expected to reach about USD 169,684.1 million by 2030. Specifically, the global box office market was estimated at USD 39.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 157.0 billion by 2034.
  • Television Broadcast Networks: The global television advertising market size was valued at approximately USD 245.60 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to about USD 368.83 billion by 2034.
  • Direct-to-Consumer Streaming Services (SVOD/Video Streaming): The global video streaming market size was valued at approximately USD 615.93 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach about USD 3226.07 billion by the end of 2032. More specifically for subscription video on demand (SVOD), the global market size was estimated at USD 95.50 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 242.02 billion by 2033.
  • Theme Parks and Resorts: The global amusement parks market size was valued at approximately USD 69.2 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach about USD 138.7 billion by 2034.
  • Consumer Products (Licensed Merchandise): Global sales of licensed merchandise and services reached approximately USD 356.5 billion in 2023. The global licensed merchandise market was valued at around USD 292 billion in 2023.

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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

Over the next 2-3 years, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is expected to drive revenue growth through several key initiatives:

  • Growth and Monetization of Direct-to-Consumer (Streaming) Services: Disney anticipates continued revenue expansion from its streaming platforms, including Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+. This growth is expected to be fueled by increases in subscriber numbers, higher Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) due to price adjustments, and the expansion of ad-supported tiers and bundled offerings. The company aims for its combined streaming businesses to achieve sustained profitability, becoming a significant earnings growth driver.

  • Expansion and Enhancement of Parks, Experiences, and Cruise Lines: The "Experiences" segment, which includes theme parks, resorts, and Disney Cruise Line, is projected to be a strong revenue driver. This will be achieved through increased guest attendance, higher guest spending at its global destinations, and the introduction of new attractions and offerings. Disney has outlined a substantial capital investment plan of approximately $60 billion over ten years, with a focus on expanding capacity and new ventures in this segment.

  • Transformation and Digital Monetization of ESPN: Disney is strategically evolving ESPN into a preeminent digital sports platform. This involves a new joint venture for a streaming sports service that will aggregate content from major sports leagues and college sports, and eventually the offering of ESPN as a standalone streaming service. This digital transformation is expected to create new revenue streams and enhance overall value.

  • Strengthened Film Studio Output and Theatrical Performance: Improving the creative output and economics of its film studios (including Walt Disney Pictures, Twentieth Century Studios, Marvel, Lucasfilm, Pixar, and Searchlight Pictures) is a key focus. Successful theatrical releases are anticipated to generate significant box office revenue and also contribute to content pipelines for streaming services, thereby driving subscriber engagement and growth.

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Share Repurchases

  • The Walt Disney Company repurchased $3.5 billion in shares during fiscal year 2025.
  • The company repurchased $2.992 billion in shares in fiscal year 2024.
  • Disney is targeting $7 billion in share repurchases for fiscal year 2026, which is double the amount from fiscal 2025.

Share Issuance

  • Disney's shares outstanding have shown a slight decline in recent years, reflecting share repurchases rather than significant new issuances. For example, shares outstanding declined by 1.09% in 2025 and had a minor increase of 0.05% in 2024.

Outbound Investments

  • In November 2023, Disney acquired Comcast's remaining stake in Hulu, taking full control of the streaming service.
  • Disney acquired Angel City Football Club for $250 million in July 2024.
  • The company also acquired VailResorts in April 2024 and Bamtech in November 2022, both for undisclosed amounts.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures for the Disney Experiences division reached a record $6.43 billion in fiscal year 2025, a 75.7% increase from fiscal 2024. This increase was primarily driven by higher spending on cruise fleet expansion and new offerings and expansions at theme parks and resorts.
  • Total capital expenditures for the company are projected to be approximately $8 billion in 2025 and are expected to increase to $9 billion in 2026.
  • Disney announced a plan in September 2023 to invest approximately $60 billion into its Disney Parks, Experiences and Products segment over the next decade, with key areas of focus including parks and resorts, technology and maintenance, and cruise line expansion.

Better Bets vs. Walt Disney (DIS)

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Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CMCSA_4242026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04242026CMCSAComcastDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-2.9%
TTD_4022026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE04022026TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
7.0%7.0%-8.9%
META_3272026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy03272026METAMeta PlatformsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
16.4%16.4%0.0%
CARG_3062026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V203062026CARGCarGurusInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
8.3%8.3%-8.3%
YELP_2132026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE02132026YELPYelpDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
31.6%31.6%-5.7%
DIS_12192025_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V212192025DISWalt DisneyInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.7%-6.7%-16.9%
DIS_5312024_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V205312024DISWalt DisneyInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
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13.6%9.8%-20.6%

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Peer Comparisons

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Financials

DISNFLXCMCSAWBDFOXALYVMedian
NameWalt Dis.Netflix Comcast Warner B.Fox Live Nat. 
Mkt Price103.0892.0627.1926.9763.35158.2577.70
Mkt Cap184.1388.797.866.927.436.882.4
Rev LTM95,71646,890125,27837,29616,57825,20142,093
Op Inc LTM13,62913,93719,1471,3093,1551,2338,392
FCF LTM7,06011,89417,7163,0882,3103055,074
FCF 3Y Avg7,8038,76214,9474,5591,7737486,181
CFO LTM15,63112,65032,2404,3192,7291,3958,485
CFO 3Y Avg14,5499,29929,8275,7242,1421,4947,511

Growth & Margins

DISNFLXCMCSAWBDFOXALYVMedian
NameWalt Dis.Netflix Comcast Warner B.Fox Live Nat. 
Rev Chg LTM3.5%16.7%1.4%-5.1%9.2%8.8%6.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.3%13.7%1.4%4.1%5.1%15.7%4.7%
Rev Chg Q5.2%16.2%5.3%-5.7%2.0%11.1%5.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.4%3.8%1.3%-1.5%0.6%2.6%1.3%
Op Inc Chg LTM4.4%25.2%-17.3%7,172.2%2.0%51.5%14.8%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg29.0%37.7%-5.1%2,449.6%5.8%28.0%28.5%
Op Mgn LTM14.2%29.7%15.3%3.5%19.0%4.9%14.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.2%26.7%17.8%0.5%18.6%4.4%15.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%0.2%-1.4%-0.2%-0.7%0.3%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM16.3%27.0%25.7%11.6%16.5%5.5%16.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg15.7%22.6%24.1%14.4%13.7%6.3%15.1%
FCF/Rev LTM7.4%25.4%14.1%8.3%13.9%1.2%11.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.5%21.3%12.1%11.5%11.4%3.2%11.4%

Valuation

DISNFLXCMCSAWBDFOXALYVMedian
NameWalt Dis.Netflix Comcast Warner B.Fox Live Nat. 
Mkt Cap184.1388.797.866.927.436.882.4
P/S1.98.30.81.81.71.51.7
P/Op Inc13.527.95.151.18.729.820.7
P/EBIT13.323.03.418.09.327.315.7
P/E15.029.15.292.014.574.122.0
P/CFO11.830.73.015.510.126.313.6
Total Yield7.1%3.4%24.2%1.1%8.0%1.3%5.3%
Dividend Yield0.5%0.0%5.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%0.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.1%2.5%11.6%14.5%7.9%2.9%6.0%
D/E0.30.01.00.50.30.30.3
Net D/E0.20.00.90.40.20.10.2

Returns

DISNFLXCMCSAWBDFOXALYVMedian
NameWalt Dis.Netflix Comcast Warner B.Fox Live Nat. 
1M Rtn6.8%-3.7%-3.1%-1.9%8.4%3.7%0.9%
3M Rtn-8.6%10.3%-7.5%-2.1%-12.5%8.8%-4.8%
6M Rtn-7.9%-17.7%6.5%20.1%-1.5%5.8%2.2%
12M Rtn14.8%-18.8%-10.6%219.9%29.9%20.5%17.6%
3Y Rtn4.9%189.9%-22.0%112.5%99.0%133.6%105.8%
1M Excs Rtn-3.2%-13.6%-13.0%-11.9%-1.6%-6.3%-9.1%
3M Excs Rtn-12.8%6.1%-11.7%-6.3%-16.7%4.6%-9.0%
6M Excs Rtn-10.8%-21.3%-1.0%21.5%-0.2%1.1%-0.6%
12M Excs Rtn-15.2%-48.5%-41.4%181.2%-1.4%-10.3%-12.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-69.0%108.4%-90.3%36.1%24.4%63.6%30.3%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Entertainment41,18640,63539,231  
Experiences34,15132,54928,08516,55217,038
Sports17,61917,11116,429  
Eliminations-1,595-1,397   
Content License Early Termination 0-1,023  
Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution   50,86648,350
Total91,36188,89882,72267,41865,388


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Experiences9,2728,9567,295490474
Entertainment3,3947591,343  
Sports2,3482,4102,655  
Amortization of Twenty-First Century Fox (TFCF) intangible assets related to equity investees1212121526
Corporate and unallocated shared expenses-1,435-1,147-1,159-928-817
Twenty-First Century Fox (TFCF) and Hulu Acquisition Amortization-1,677-1,998-2,353-2,418-2,846
Content License Early Termination 0-1,023  
Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution   6,5006,957
Total11,9148,9926,7703,6593,794


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$103.08 
Market Cap ($ Bil)184.1 
First Trading Date01/02/1962 
Distance from 52W High-16.3% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$100.98$109.27
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA2.1%-5.7%
 3M1YR
Volatility29.1%25.8%
Downside Capture0.530.41
Upside Capture33.5469.84
Correlation (SPY)43.5%43.7%
DIS Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.170.800.840.840.900.90
Up Beta1.181.151.261.071.130.95
Down Beta2.690.671.441.301.071.07
Up Capture86%47%31%42%59%38%
Bmk +ve Days15223166141428
Stock +ve Days13172760117370
Down Capture275%92%73%74%83%95%
Bmk -ve Days4183056108321
Stock -ve Days9263765135380

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with DIS
DIS14.7%25.7%0.49-
Sector ETF (XLC)23.9%13.2%1.3644.3%
Equity (SPY)30.6%12.5%1.8843.9%
Gold (GLD)39.5%27.2%1.203.8%
Commodities (DBC)51.5%17.9%2.200.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.1%13.5%0.6735.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-18.2%42.1%-0.3623.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with DIS
DIS-10.6%29.1%-0.36-
Sector ETF (XLC)9.9%20.7%0.3960.9%
Equity (SPY)12.8%17.1%0.5960.4%
Gold (GLD)20.5%17.9%0.945.8%
Commodities (DBC)14.3%19.1%0.6115.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.5%18.8%0.0945.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)7.4%56.1%0.3527.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with DIS
DIS0.8%28.6%0.07-
Sector ETF (XLC)9.7%22.3%0.5161.7%
Equity (SPY)14.9%17.9%0.7162.9%
Gold (GLD)13.6%15.9%0.712.3%
Commodities (DBC)9.7%17.7%0.4622.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.7%20.7%0.2449.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.4%66.9%1.0718.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date4152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity21.4 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 33120263.8%
Average Daily Volume7.9 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.7 days
Basic Shares Quantity1,786.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/2/2026-7.4%-3.6%-8.4%
11/13/2025-7.7%-10.3%-4.6%
8/6/2025-2.7%-3.9%0.4%
5/7/202510.8%20.8%22.1%
2/5/2025-2.4%-3.8%-6.9%
11/14/20246.2%11.2%10.3%
8/7/2024-4.5%-4.9%-1.5%
5/7/2024-9.5%-9.1%-12.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive10911
# Negative141513
Median Positive5.6%11.2%10.3%
Median Negative-3.6%-3.9%-7.4%
Max Positive11.5%20.8%24.9%
Max Negative-13.2%-10.3%-16.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202502/02/202610-Q
09/30/202511/13/202510-K
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/07/202510-Q
12/31/202402/05/202510-Q
09/30/202411/14/202410-K
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/07/202410-Q
12/31/202302/07/202410-Q
09/30/202311/21/202310-K
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202202/08/202310-Q
09/30/202211/29/202210-K
06/30/202208/10/202210-Q
03/31/202205/11/202210-Q

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 2/2/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 Entertainment SVOD operating income 500.00 Mil 33.3% Higher NewGuidance: 375.00 Mil for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Other Entertainment businesses operating income 700.00 Mil    
Q2 2026 Sports segment operating income decline 100.00 Mil    
2026 SVOD operating margin 10.0% 00AffirmedGuidance: 10.0% for 2026
2026 Cash provided by operations 19.00 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 19.00 Bil for 2026
2026 Share Repurchases 7.00 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 7.00 Bil for 2026

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 11/13/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 DTC SVOD operating income 375.00 Mil   Higher New
2026 Entertainment segment operating income growth 10.0% 00AffirmedGuidance: 10.0% for 2025
2026 Entertainment DTC SVOD operating margin 10.0%   Higher New
2026 Sports segment operating income growth 2.0% -88.9%-16.0%LoweredGuidance: 18.0% for 2025
2026 Experiences segment operating income growth 7.0% -12.5%-1.0%LoweredGuidance: 8.0% for 2025
2026 Content Investment 24.00 Bil   Higher New
2026 Adjusted EPS Growth 10.0%   Higher New
2026 Cash provided by operations 19.00 Bil   Higher New
2026 Capital Expenditures 9.00 Bil   Higher New
2026 Share Repurchases 7.00 Bil   Higher New
2027 Adjusted EPS Growth 10.0%   Higher New

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Chang, Amy DirectBuy2172026107.8591698,7911,587,563Form
2Coleman, Sonia LSr. EVP & Chief People OfficerDirectSell1232026114.002,473281,922228Form
3Coleman, Sonia LSr. EVP & Chief People OfficerDirectSell12292025114.002,431  Form
4Gorman, James P by Grantor Retained Annuity TrustBuy12152025111.8918,0002,013,9434,251,657Form
5Coleman, Sonia LSr. EVP and Chief HR OfficerDirectSell8252025118.571,971  Form

DIS Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)

CONVICTION RATIONALE

The stock receives a 'MARKET WEIGHT' score of 6. The investment thesis presents a balanced risk-reward profile. The positive transition to profitability in the streaming segment is a significant catalyst and is unfolding successfully. However, this is offset by a 'CONTESTED' competitive moat, particularly in the critical Parks segment, and a tangible near-term risk of a consumer discretionary slowdown impacting the primary profit engine. The valuation is fair, reflecting this balanced dynamic, preventing a higher conviction rating until the resilience of the Experiences segment is more clearly demonstrated.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Primary: 'Transition / Profit Pivot' | Secondary: 'Quality Compounder / Stalwart'

The primary focus is the 'Transition / Profit Pivot' (Type F) as the market's main catalyst is the successful shift of the Direct-to-Consumer (streaming) business from heavy losses to sustained profitability. This transition is the central element of the current repricing narrative. The 'Quality Compounder' (Type B) archetype is secondary, representing the high-margin, durable Experiences (Parks) segment, which provides a stable profit engine but is not the primary source of the forward-looking thesis change.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Streaming (DTC) Margin Expansion & Experiences Segment Pricing Power

The investment thesis is centered on a narrative shift from a cash-burning streaming growth story to a dual-engine profitable enterprise. The primary driver is the margin expansion runway in the Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) segment as it scales towards profitability, alongside the continued demonstration of significant pricing power and resilient demand in the high-margin Experiences (Parks & Cruises) business.

Mechanism: Disney captures value by leveraging its unparalleled IP. In the Experiences segment, this translates to premium ticket prices and high per-capita spending. In DTC, the exclusive IP creates a 'must-have' service, allowing for price increases and bundle strategies that drive ARPU and operating income growth, fundamentally rerating the company's overall margin profile and EPS power.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Streaming (SVOD) achieved positive operating income of $450 Million in Q1 FY2026, confirming the successful pivot to profitability.
  • Experiences Segment revenue hit a record $10.0 Billion in Q1 FY2026, with operating margins of ~33%, showcasing its powerful profit generation.
  • Domestic Parks Per Capita Guest Spending grew 4% in Q1 FY2026, demonstrating persistent pricing power even with modest attendance growth.
  • The DTC segment has a significant margin expansion runway, with current operating margins at 8.4% compared to a mature peer like Netflix at ~32%
PRIMARY RISK
Consumer Discretionary Slowdown Impacting Experiences Segment Growth

The primary risk is that a cyclical slowdown in consumer discretionary spending, driven by macro pressures, negatively impacts the Experiences segment, which is the company's core profit engine. A deceleration in park attendance or per-capita spending would challenge the growth narrative, especially as the company provided weaker-than-expected guidance for the segment.

Mechanism: A reduction in consumer savings or confidence leads to trip cancellations, trading down on in-park purchases, and lower booking rates for cruises. This directly compresses revenue and high-margin operating income from the Experiences segment, which may not be fully offset by improvements in the still-maturing streaming business, leading to an overall earnings miss.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Company guidance for Q2 2026 projects only 'modest' operating income growth for the Experiences segment.
  • Management cited 'international visitation headwinds' at domestic parks in Q1 2026.
  • Broader economic data in April 2026 showed consumer surveys indicating a shift away from spending on expensive, discretionary activities.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Threshold Rationale
Streaming (SVOD) Operating Income>$650M (Q2 FY2026)This KPI is the most direct measure of the 'Alpha Driver'. Exceeding the guided ~$200M sequential increase (from $450M) would prove the margin expansion thesis is accelerating.
Experiences Segment Operating Income Growth>+5% YoYThis measures the health of the core profit engine and counters the 'Anti-Alpha' thesis. Beating the 'modest' growth guidance would signal resilience against a consumer slowdown.
Domestic Parks Per Capita Guest Spending Growth>+3% YoYThis is a leading indicator of pricing power. Sustained growth proves the brand's resilience and ability to drive high-margin revenue even with maturing attendance.
Core Investment Debate

Experiences Resilience vs. Streaming Profitability Velocity

BULL VIEW

Resilient pricing power in Parks and rapid DTC margin expansion will fuel EPS growth, proving the success of the dual-engine model.

CORE TENSION

Can accelerating streaming profits offset the cyclical slowdown threatening the Parks & Experiences segment, Disney's core profit engine, amid weakening consumer discretionary spending?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
NEUTRAL

Q1 FY26 data showed record Parks revenue but management's forward guidance for Q2 was only 'modest' growth, while April 2026 consumer surveys show a spending pullback.

BEAR VIEW

A consumer slowdown will hit the high-margin Parks business harder than expected, and DTC profits will not be enough to cover the shortfall.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Early May 2026
Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call
Watch: Experiences Segment Operating Income Growth vs. Q1's +6% YoY. Must beat the 'modest' guidance to counter the primary bear thesis.
May 22, 2026
'The Mandalorian and Grogu' Theatrical Release
Watch: Opening weekend global box office vs. projections. A result over $200M would signal franchise health.
Early August 2026
Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call
Watch: Streaming (SVOD) Operating Income vs. Q1's $450M. Must show sequential growth towards the key $650M threshold.
Monthly (May-Oct 2026)
Monthly Consumer Spending Data Release
Watch: YoY growth in Retail Sales (ex-auto, ex-gas) and Personal Saving Rate from FRED.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
4/15/2026
Legal: Securities Lawsuit Update
Details: A minor procedural update in the ongoing securities fraud class-action lawsuit regarding Disney+ subscriber disclosures had a muted impact on the stock price.
Flat (0.4%)
$102.59 -> $103.04
3/24/2026
Regulatory: FCC License Review Initiated
Details: News emerged that the FCC initiated an early review of ABC's broadcast licenses over DEI policies, creating regulatory uncertainty for the Linear TV business segment.
Slight -1.6% pullback
$97.95 -> $96.39
11/13/2025
Q4 FY2025 Earnings Report
Details: Reported strong full-year free cash flow growth of $1.5B to $10.07B. However, the stock plummeted likely due to cautious forward-looking commentary on FY2026 segment growth.
Crashed -7.8%
$115.86 -> $106.88
12/9/2025
Strategic: Hulu and Disney+ App Integration
Details: Announced the full integration of the Hulu library into the Disney+ app, a key strategic milestone aimed at increasing user engagement and reducing churn.
Modest 1.7% gain
$107.02 -> $108.83
1/5/2026
Cruise Line Fleet Expansion Update
Details: Company provided positive construction and timeline updates for the new 'Disney Adventure' cruise ship, reinforcing capital investment in the high-margin Experiences segment.
Rose significantly by 2.0%
$111.85 -> $114.07
2/2/2026
Q1 FY2026 Earnings & Guidance
Details: Despite beating estimates with record $10.0B Experiences revenue and $450M SVOD OI, stock fell sharply on weak Q2 guidance projecting only 'modest' Experiences segment OI growth.
Crashed -7.4%
$112.80 -> $104.45
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4%-6%

NORMAL

Stock trades with Moderate volatility (2.0x S&P) and Spiking near-term fear. The fundamental picture is balanced: a Neutral sentiment, Fair valuation, and Contested moat justify a standard allocation.

Diversification Alternatives
CMCSA
SECTOR

Comcast's Universal Epic Universe park offers a clear growth catalyst DIS lacks. It also trades at a significant valuation discount (~8x P/E vs. DIS ~15.5x).

Core Thesis: A deep-value play on a media conglomerate with a clear, near-term catalyst in its high-margin Theme Parks segment and a stable, cash-cow broadband business.
NTDOY
OTHER

Monetizes world-class IP with a capital-light model (software/consoles), avoiding Disney's massive Parks capex. Possesses a fortress balance sheet with significant net cash.

Core Thesis: A high-quality, cyclical play on video game hardware with a durable, unmatched portfolio of IP and significant upside from expanding that IP into other media.
How Is The Market Pricing DIS?

Disney is transitioning from a traditional media conglomerate into a two-pronged growth story: a high-margin, irreplaceable Experiences (Parks & Cruises) engine and a newly profitable, scalable Streaming (Direct-to-Consumer) business.

Filter all news through the dual lenses of Experiences segment margin expansion and Direct-to-Consumer (streaming) profitability growth.

What will confirm the thesis

Experiences segment operating income growth >+5% YoY; sustained positive operating income in the combined streaming business (SVOD OI); announcements of new park investments or cruise ships; successful theatrical releases that reinforce core IP franchises.

What will damage the thesis

Decline in park attendance or per-capita guest spending; a return to operating losses for the streaming segment; accelerated decline in Linear TV (cable) revenue and profits; major theatrical releases underperforming, suggesting IP fatigue.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Quarterly fluctuations in domestic vs. international park attendance mix — overall revenue and margin are more critical; minor shifts in Disney+ vs. Netflix subscriber counts (company no longer reports quarterly subs) — focus on reported SVOD revenue and profitability; individual movie weekend box office numbers — the long-tail value to streaming and parks is the key metric.

Repricing Catalyst

The primary catalyst is the successful pivot of the Direct-to-Consumer (streaming) segment to sustained profitability, which achieved positive operating income of $450 million in Q1 FY2026 after years of heavy investment and losses. This, combined with the continued record-breaking revenue performance of the high-margin Experiences segment ($10.0B revenue in Q1), shifts the narrative from a cash-burning streaming ramp to a dual-engine growth company.

What DIS Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Q1 FY2026 Earnings Press Release, Feb 2, 2026
Theme Parks, Cruises & Products (Experiences)
$40.0B TTM (38% of Total) · 33% Margin
What It Is

Admission to Walt Disney World & Disneyland; Disney Cruise Line voyages; licensed merchandise (toys, apparel, etc.) based on Disney, Pixar, Marvel, and Star Wars IP.

Who Pays & How

Global consumers pay for family entertainment experiences. The moat is the unique, beloved IP that cannot be replicated and the high capital cost of building competing physical parks. Brand loyalty and nostalgia create recurring demand.

Per-capita admission tickets, multi-day passes, annual passes, per-person cruise fares, and per-unit merchandise sales.
Competition
Universal Studios (Comcast) — Epic Universe Park
Universal is aggressively investing in new attractions, including the upcoming Epic Universe park, leveraging its own strong IP like Harry Potter and Nintendo.
Disney's unmatched portfolio of globally recognized IP (Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar, Disney Animation) creates a deeper emotional connection and broader appeal. The scale of their existing parks creates a significant barrier to entry.
Streaming Services (Disney+, Hulu)
$20.0B TTM (19% of Total) · 8.4% Margin
What It Is

Subscription video on demand (SVOD) services: Disney+ (Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, Nat Geo) and Hulu (general entertainment).

Who Pays & How

Global consumers pay a monthly fee for access to an exclusive library of marquee film and television content. The key driver is access to tentpole IP franchises unavailable on other platforms.

Monthly or annual recurring subscription fee, with ad-supported and ad-free tiers.
Competition
Netflix — Global SVOD service
Netflix has a larger global subscriber base (~300M as of year-end 2024) and a broader, more diverse content slate with a heavy focus on local-language productions.
Disney's moat is its library of globally dominant IP franchises which are exclusive to its platform. The integration with the broader Disney ecosystem (parks, merchandise) creates a powerful flywheel.
Traditional TV Networks (Entertainment & Sports)
$45.0B TTM (43% of Total) · 10% Margin
What It Is

ABC broadcast network, Disney channels, FX, National Geographic. Also includes ESPN sports network.

Who Pays & How

Advertisers pay for access to viewers. Cable & satellite providers (MVPDs) pay affiliate fees to carry the channels in their bundles. Consumers indirectly pay through their cable bills.

Advertising revenue and affiliate fees from distributors.
Competition
Cord-cutting / Over-the-top (OTT) streaming
Streaming offers consumers more choice, lower price points (in some cases), and on-demand viewing, leading them to cancel traditional cable packages.
ESPN's portfolio of live sports rights, particularly for major leagues, remains a critical component of the legacy cable bundle, giving it leverage in affiliate negotiations that other channels lack.
DIS Evolution: Price Return by Era
1984–2005 · The Eisner Renaissance & Expansion
Revitalization of Animation and Parks
Under CEO Michael Eisner, Disney experienced a creative and financial resurgence known as the Disney Renaissance (The Little Mermaid, The Lion King). This era also saw significant expansion of the theme park business with new parks in Paris and Hong Kong, and the acquisition of Capital Cities/ABC in 1996.
2005–2019 · The Iger IP Acquisition Era
Building an Unrivaled Content Empire +400% (2009-2019)
CEO Bob Iger transformed the company by acquiring major IP houses: Pixar ($7.4B, 2006), Marvel Entertainment ($4B, 2009), and Lucasfilm ($4.05B, 2012). These acquisitions created a powerful content flywheel, fueling the box office and providing new franchises for the theme parks.
2019–Present · The Streaming Pivot
Direct-to-Consumer Transformation -25% peak-to-trough (2021-2023)
Following the massive $71.3B acquisition of 21st Century Fox to bolster its content library, Disney launched its flagship streaming service, Disney+, in November 2019. This era has been defined by a costly, all-in strategic shift to building a global streaming business to compete with Netflix, which has now successfully turned profitable as of early 2026.
Market Appears To Be Skeptical Of Core Thesis
Price structure is damaged. The price has broken key levels and the trend is no longer supportive. Relative to SPY: Performance in line with the broader market with no relative edge or drag in current window. Volume and momentum show mild positive lean. The accumulation signals present but not yet dominant. Earnings history is a strong counter-signal. The market has consistently rejected the narrative. This is not noise, but institutional disagreement.
① Structure
-2
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-3
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-4 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Potential Bottoming · Death Cross
2 Momentum Mixed
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Neutral Relative Strength
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Accumulation
5 Volatility Normal
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Flat
7 Earnings Reaction History Consistent Pressure
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars