CaliberCos (CWD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.15 | Market Cap: $2.7 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
CaliberCos (CWD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.15Market Cap: $2.7 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Real Estate Data Analytics, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -144% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -8.9 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -28% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 1413% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -55%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -19%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -38% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.9%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.9% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 809% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -469% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 2063% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Real Estate Data Analytics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -144% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -8.9 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -28% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 1413% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -55%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -19%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -38% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.9%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.9% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 809% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -469% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 2063% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CWD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
CaliberCos (CWD) experienced significant downward pressure on its stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, with several factors contributing to a substantial decline.
1. Weak Financial Performance and Revenue Decline: The company demonstrated a concerning trend of decreasing revenue, with a 43.79% decline in 2024 compared to the previous year. This continued into 2025, with reports indicating a 63% revenue decline over the last year and a 70% aggregate reduction over the past three years as of November 2025. CaliberCos also missed analyst estimates for both GAAP EPS and revenue in its third-quarter 2025 financial results.
2. Nasdaq Compliance Issues and Delisting Risk: CaliberCos faced challenges with Nasdaq listing requirements, having been notified in May 2024 that its common stock fell below the minimum bid price. While the company was granted an extension until May 2025 to regain compliance, and later in November 2025, it regained compliance with the Nasdaq stockholders' equity requirement, these ongoing issues signaled underlying financial instability and generated investor concern.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CWD Return | - | - | - | - | -46% | -85% | -92% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 18% | -13% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 42% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CWD Win Rate | - | - | - | 29% | 42% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 35% | 56% | 48% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CWD Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -66% | -98% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -13% | -31% | -11% | -12% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
CWD has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4470 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| With CaliberCos Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return | ||
| Day 9 of Loss Streak for CaliberCos Stock with -42% Return (vs. -68% YTD) [9/30/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 9 of Loss Streak for CaliberCos Stock with -42% Return (vs. -68% YTD) [9/30/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 9 of Loss Streak for CaliberCos Stock with -42% Return (vs. -68% YTD) [9/30/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 9 of Loss Streak for CaliberCos Stock with -42% Return (vs. -68% YTD) [9/30/2025] | Notification | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| CWD Stock Down -42% after 9-Day Loss Streak | October 1st, 2025 | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: QMMM, EPSM, CWD | Losers: DGNX, SUIG, DUO | September 10th, 2025 | ||
| CWD Stock Up 160%: What Next For CaliberCos? | August 29th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CWD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for CaliberCos
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| Rev LTM | 100 |
| Op Inc LTM | 18 |
| FCF LTM | -2 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16 |
| CFO LTM | -2 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 17 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -6.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -3.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -6.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -6.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/EBIT | 3.2 |
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/CFO | -2.0 |
| Total Yield | 16.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 1.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -24.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 12.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -37.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -59.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8112023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 6232023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 5172023 | 424B4 12/31/2022 |
| 6302022 | 10282022 | S-1/A 6/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1192023 | S-1/A 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |