Tearsheet

Five Point (FPH)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $5.54 | Market Cap: $825.6 Mil
Sector: Real Estate | Industry: Real Estate Development

Five Point (FPH)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $5.54
Market Cap: $825.6 Mil
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: Real Estate Development

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 23%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 38x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 108%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 108%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, Water Infrastructure, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Green Building Certification, Show more.
Key risks
FPH key risks include [1] the management of its substantial debt load and capital structure and [2] an exclusive business concentration in the California real estate market.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 23%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 108%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 108%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, Water Infrastructure, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Green Building Certification, Show more.
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 38x
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21%
5 Key risks
FPH key risks include [1] the management of its substantial debt load and capital structure and [2] an exclusive business concentration in the California real estate market.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FPH Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the stock movement of Five Point (FPH) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Persistent Real Estate Market Headwinds: The broader real estate market in 2025 continued to face significant challenges from elevated interest rates, inflationary pressures, and high construction costs. These factors contributed to suppressed homebuyer demand and increased caution among developers, creating an unfavorable environment for real estate stocks.

2. Company's Cautious Outlook Despite Positive Earnings: While Five Point reported a consolidated net income of $55.7 million for the third quarter of 2025, management maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. This caution was primarily due to the evolving housing landscape and the impact of elevated mortgage rates on affordability and buyer activity.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FPH Return-21%20%-64%32%23%48%-20%
Peers Return50%24%-19%69%-11%15%161%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FPH Win Rate50%58%33%58%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate62%62%44%52%42%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FPH Max Drawdown-45%-3%-70%-13%-9%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-36%-7%-40%-7%-17%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JOE, FOR, GRBK, TRC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFPHS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-77.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven340.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-58.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven139.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-61.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven161.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to JOE, FOR, AXR, HHH, FPH


In The Past

Five Point's stock fell -77.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/13/2021. A -77.3% loss requires a 340.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Five Point (FPH)

Better Bets than Five Point (FPH)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FPH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.6%-3.6%-5.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.6%-3.6%-5.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Five Point

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FPHJOEFORGRBKTRCMedian
NameFive Poi.St. Joe Forestar Green Br.Tejon Ra. 
Mkt Price5.5461.7326.6265.4415.9426.62
Mkt Cap0.83.61.42.80.41.4
Rev LTM1944891,6622,11346489
Op Inc LTM24132209439-8132
FCF LTM209148-199158-70148
FCF 3Y Avg94221139-4222
CFO LTM209176-1981629162
CFO 3Y Avg9412531441094

Growth & Margins

FPHJOEFORGRBKTRCMedian
NameFive Poi.St. Joe Forestar Green Br.Tejon Ra. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.5%26.9%10.1%6.6%15.7%10.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.1%19.4%3.3%6.1%-11.8%6.1%
Rev Chg Q-20.7%62.7%21.6%-4.7%10.3%10.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.8%14.5%7.7%-1.1%2.5%2.5%
Op Mgn LTM12.3%27.1%12.6%20.8%-17.5%12.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.4%24.2%14.3%20.5%-18.3%14.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-3.6%3.5%-0.5%-0.5%4.3%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM107.8%36.0%-11.9%7.7%19.7%19.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg55.3%29.9%1.0%7.7%22.0%22.0%
FCF/Rev LTM107.8%30.3%-12.0%7.5%-150.0%7.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg55.3%2.6%0.9%7.4%-96.7%2.6%

Valuation

FPHJOEFORGRBKTRCMedian
NameFive Poi.St. Joe Forestar Green Br.Tejon Ra. 
Mkt Cap0.83.61.42.80.41.4
P/S4.75.90.81.59.34.7
P/EBIT38.416.66.57.3-52.97.3
P/E9.727.48.19.5144.39.7
P/CFO4.416.2-6.919.846.916.2
Total Yield10.3%4.8%12.4%10.5%0.7%10.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg12.7%0.9%0.8%6.5%-9.4%0.9%
D/E0.50.20.60.10.20.2
Net D/E0.10.20.30.10.20.2

Returns

FPHJOEFORGRBKTRCMedian
NameFive Poi.St. Joe Forestar Green Br.Tejon Ra. 
1M Rtn-12.1%8.3%14.1%6.2%0.3%6.2%
3M Rtn-13.6%20.3%-0.6%-8.8%-2.4%-2.4%
6M Rtn-0.4%32.5%37.4%9.8%-3.2%9.8%
12M Rtn46.2%34.5%-1.4%4.3%5.4%5.4%
3Y Rtn170.2%70.9%72.1%161.0%-14.0%72.1%
1M Excs Rtn-12.8%7.6%13.3%5.5%-0.5%5.5%
3M Excs Rtn-16.0%17.3%-3.0%-11.3%-4.0%-4.0%
6M Excs Rtn-12.7%20.1%25.0%-2.6%-15.6%-2.6%
12M Excs Rtn34.7%22.8%-15.5%-9.2%-7.0%-7.0%
3Y Excs Rtn103.1%7.5%6.7%101.3%-83.0%7.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
San Francisco1,3601,3141,2761,2321,197
Valencia896972878815748
Corporate and unallocated370152292331374
Great Park305407450558592
Commercial38414949101
Other eliminations-0-0-2-22-8
Total2,9692,8862,9432,9623,005


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity391,932
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-5.7%
Average Daily Volume265,751
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.47
Basic Shares Quantity149,029,883
Short % of Basic Shares0.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-1.0%3.8%5.3%
7/24/2025-14.9%-17.1%-11.4%
4/24/20259.2%0.2%3.7%
1/23/202541.6%58.1%29.3%
10/17/2024-2.6%-8.6%-10.2%
7/18/20243.7%6.6%0.7%
4/18/2024-0.3%-5.8%2.6%
1/18/20243.4%14.8%7.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131311
# Negative9911
Median Positive4.4%6.5%3.7%
Median Negative-2.6%-8.6%-7.0%
Max Positive41.6%58.1%29.3%
Max Negative-14.9%-17.1%-24.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024224202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241018202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024719202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024422202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023304202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231023202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023721202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023424202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022306202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221031202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021311202210-K 12/31/2021