Five Point (FPH)
Market Price (11/9/2026): $4.28 | Market Cap: $307.9 MilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Real Estate Development
Five Point (FPH)
Market Price (11/9/2026): $4.28Market Cap: $307.9 MilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Real Estate Development
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, Water Infrastructure, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Green Building Certification, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.4 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.9% Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 99x Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -39% Key risksFPH key risks include [1] the management of its substantial debt load and capital structure and [2] an exclusive business concentration in the California real estate market. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, Water Infrastructure, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Green Building Certification, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.4 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.9% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 99x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -39% |
| Key risksFPH key risks include [1] the management of its substantial debt load and capital structure and [2] an exclusive business concentration in the California real estate market. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Five Point (FPH) stock has lost about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deferred Land Sales Led to a Q3 2026 Net Loss.
Five Point (FPH) reported a consolidated net loss of $4.4 million for fiscal Q3 2026, compared to a net income of $55.7 million in the prior year's fiscal Q3. This loss was primarily due to the absence of significant land sale transactions, as the company elected to defer certain land sales previously anticipated in 2026 into 2027. Management stated this decision was made to avoid transacting in a less favorable market.
2. Significant Reduction in Full-Year 2026 Net Income Guidance.
Following the fiscal Q3 2026 results, Five Point sharply revised its full-year 2026 consolidated net income guidance down to approximately $20 million. This represents a substantial decrease from the approximately $100 million in consolidated net income projected in fiscal Q2 2026, directly reflecting the impact of the deferred land sales and a cautious outlook on immediate market conditions.
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Five Point (FPH) stock has lost about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deferred Land Sales Led to a Q3 2026 Net Loss.
Five Point (FPH) reported a consolidated net loss of $4.4 million for fiscal Q3 2026, compared to a net income of $55.7 million in the prior year's fiscal Q3. This loss was primarily due to the absence of significant land sale transactions, as the company elected to defer certain land sales previously anticipated in 2026 into 2027. Management stated this decision was made to avoid transacting in a less favorable market.
2. Significant Reduction in Full-Year 2026 Net Income Guidance.
Following the fiscal Q3 2026 results, Five Point sharply revised its full-year 2026 consolidated net income guidance down to approximately $20 million. This represents a substantial decrease from the approximately $100 million in consolidated net income projected in fiscal Q2 2026, directly reflecting the impact of the deferred land sales and a cautious outlook on immediate market conditions.
3. Macroeconomic Headwinds from Higher Mortgage Rates and Softened Homebuyer Demand.
A core reason for the deferred land sales and subsequent revised guidance was the prevailing macroeconomic environment. Five Point management explicitly cited "slowing homebuyer demand and higher mortgage rates" as factors influencing their decision. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage surpassing 7% in late fiscal Q3 2026 contributed to subdued residential real estate activity, weak absorption rates, and overall affordability challenges in the market.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -17.9% change in FPH stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -45.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.19 | 4.26 | -17.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 117 | 118 | 1.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 45.3% | 24.9% | -45.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.5 | 21.5 | 47.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 148 | 148 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -17.9% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FPH | -17.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 36.2% |
| Sector (XLRE) | -2.4% | 48.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.5% change in FPH stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -39.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.98 | 4.26 | -14.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 110 | 118 | 6.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 41.2% | 24.9% | -39.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.2 | 21.5 | 32.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 148 | 148 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FPH | -14.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 23.0% |
| Sector (XLRE) | -0.0% | 46.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -27.2% change in FPH stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.85 | 4.26 | -27.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 194 | 118 | -39.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 48.6% | 24.9% | -48.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.3 | 21.5 | 131.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 149 | 148 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -27.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FPH | -27.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 28.3% |
| Sector (XLRE) | 10.4% | 43.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 75.3% change in FPH stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 120.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.43 | 4.26 | 75.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 110 | 118 | 7.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 33.6% | 24.9% | -25.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.8 | 21.5 | 120.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 148 | 148 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 75.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FPH | 75.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 23.3% |
| Sector (XLRE) | 46.1% | 29.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FPH Return | 20% | -64% | 32% | 23% | 48% | -24% | -22% |
| Peers Return | 24% | -19% | 69% | -11% | 10% | 7% | 77% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FPH Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 44% | 52% | 42% | 46% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FPH Max Drawdown | -38% | -71% | -39% | -20% | -28% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -43% | -29% | -31% | -22% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JOE, FOR, GRBK, TRC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FPH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 30 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Five Point's stock fell -16.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | FPH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 24 days |
In The Past
Five Point's stock fell -16.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Five Point (FPH)
Five Point Holdings, LLC (FPH) is a real estate development company focused on creating large-scale, mixed-use and planned communities within prominent California markets. The company primarily operates across Orange County, Los Angeles County, and San Francisco County, developing comprehensive environments that often integrate residential, commercial, and public spaces.
FPH's main business involves selling developed land sites to various customers. It sells residential land to homebuilders for housing construction and commercial land to commercial developers or direct buyers for office, retail, or other commercial projects. Additionally, Five Point owns and operates a portfolio of commercial properties, including office and medical campuses, and provides development and property management services for its assets and potentially third parties.
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The Howard Hughes Corporation of California, developing large master-planned communities.
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- Residential and Commercial Land Sales: Sells developed land sites to homebuilders, commercial developers, and commercial buyers.
- Commercial Property Ownership and Operation: Owns and operates commercial properties, including office and medical campuses.
- Development Services: Provides expertise in the development of mixed-use and planned communities.
- Property Management Services: Offers management services for various properties within its communities.
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- Lennar Corporation (LEN)
- Commercial Real Estate Management, Inc.
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Daniel Hedigan, President and Chief Executive Officer
Daniel Hedigan was appointed CEO of Five Point Holdings, LLC in February 2022. He brings over 40 years of experience in the residential real estate sector and expertise in mixed-use planned communities. Prior to joining Five Point, Mr. Hedigan served as President of Land Sales & Home Building at The Irvine Company from 2013 to 2021, where he oversaw all aspects of development, including design, project management, construction, customer service, sales, and marketing teams. He holds a J.D. and a Master's Degree in Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles, and a B.A. in Economics and Political Science from the University of California, Irvine.
Kim Tobler, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Vice President
Kim Tobler was appointed Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, and Vice President of Five Point Holdings, LLC in September 2023. He has over 35 years of experience primarily in real estate tax, financial reporting, and corporate finance. Mr. Tobler previously served as Five Point's Vice President – Treasury and Tax since 2016. Before his tenure at Five Point, he was a tax partner at Ernst & Young LLP from 2008 to 2016 and also from 1995 to 2003. Additionally, from 2003 to 2008, he held the position of Senior Vice President – Finance and Reporting at The Irvine Company. He earned a B.S. and a Master's degree in Accounting from Brigham Young University.
Michael Alvarado, Chief Operating Officer, Chief Legal Officer, Vice President and Secretary
Michael Alvarado serves as the Chief Operating Officer, Chief Legal Officer, Vice President, and Secretary for Five Point Holdings, LLC.
Greg McWilliams, Chief Policy Officer and Vice President
Greg McWilliams holds the position of Chief Policy Officer and Vice President at Five Point Holdings, LLC.
Emile Haddad, Chairman Emeritus
Emile Haddad is the Chairman Emeritus and was previously the Chairman and CEO of Five Point Holdings, LLC. An entrepreneur by background, he started a business in Beirut focused on weatherproofing buildings. After moving to the U.S., he rose to become the Chief Investment Officer at Lennar. Mr. Haddad has also served as Chairman at UCLA and the UC Irvine Foundation.
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The key risks to Five Point Holdings, LLC (FPH) primarily revolve around its sensitivity to market conditions and the inherent challenges of large-scale development projects.
- Sensitivity to Interest Rates: A primary risk factor for Five Point Holdings is the adverse scenario of higher interest rates. Elevated interest rates tend to reduce demand for new properties and homes, which directly impacts the company's core business of selling residential and commercial land sites. Five Point was significantly affected by the surge of inflation and interest rates in recent years, which dampened demand for new houses.
- Volatile Earnings History and Choppy Performance: Five Point Holdings has demonstrated a volatile earnings history, having posted losses in several of the last ten years, and has underperformed the broad market over a five-year period. This inconsistent financial performance indicates challenges in maintaining stable profitability.
- Long-Term Project Risks: The company's business model involves developing large, mixed-use planned communities, which inherently carry risks such as potential delays, cost overruns, and shifts in market conditions. Projects like those in Valencia and San Francisco entail substantial development costs and long timelines, making them susceptible to these challenges.
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Five Point Holdings, LLC (FPH) operates in the land development sector, primarily focusing on mixed-use and planned communities in Orange County, Los Angeles County, and San Francisco County, California. Their main products and services involve selling residential and commercial land sites, operating commercial properties, and providing development and property management services. The addressable markets for their offerings can be understood through the overall land development market in California and the real estate activity in their key operating regions.
The overall land development industry in California is projected to be valued at approximately $2.2 billion in 2026.
Commercial Land Development and Property Operations
The broader California Commercial Building Market was valued at approximately USD 151.04 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 154.86 billion in 2025. It is expected to grow to USD 198.85 billion by 2035, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.53% from 2025 to 2035. California accounts for approximately 45% of the North American commercial building market. In 2023, direct spending on California commercial real estate was $22.6 billion, with top asset classes including warehouse ($8.8 billion), office ($6.8 billion), industrial ($5 billion), and retail ($2.02 billion).
Within Five Point's specific operating regions:
- In Orange County, California, combined sales of office, industrial, retail, and multifamily properties in the commercial real estate market totaled $2.8 billion year-to-date in Q3 2024. Industrial sales activity surged to $573 million in Q1 2025. The retail sector saw a sales volume of $479 million in Q2 2025, with year-to-date totals exceeding $1.1 billion.
- In Los Angeles County, California, the industrial market spans over 902.1 million square feet. The retail market has a total rentable building area of 317.6 million square feet.
- In San Francisco County, California, the office market inventory was 86.4 million square feet in September 2025, while the retail market inventory was 11.8 million square feet in Q2 2025. The San Francisco Bay Area was ranked #3 among U.S. metros for commercial real estate investment in CBRE's 2026 North America Investor Intentions Survey.
Residential Land Development
For residential markets, Five Point sells land to homebuilders. The scale of these markets in their operating regions provides context for the demand for their land products:
- In Orange County, California, the median home sale price was approximately $1.2 million to $1,299,999 in early 2026. The market is described as a seller's market and is expected to see modest appreciation of 1% to 3% in 2026.
- In Los Angeles County, California, the median home sale price was around $904,000 to $949,000 in early 2026. The market is considered balanced, trending towards a seller's market.
- In San Francisco County, California, the median home sale price was between $1.4 million and $1.5 million in early 2026. The average home value was $1,299,355 in February 2026. San Francisco County is also characterized as a seller's market.
Across California, new home sales were forecasted at 39,000 in 2024 for the markets tracked by John Burns Real Estate Consulting. The statewide median home price is projected to rise to approximately $905,000 in 2026. California had 14.88 million total housing units in 2024.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Five Point Holdings (FPH)
Over the next 2-3 years, Five Point Holdings, LLC (FPH) is expected to drive revenue growth through several key initiatives and market factors:
- Expanded Land Sales in Key Master-Planned Communities: Five Point Holdings anticipates significant revenue generation from continued and expanded land sales in its core communities, including Great Park in Orange County, Valencia in Los Angeles County, and Candlestick in San Francisco. The company plans to expand active selling programs in Great Park and Valencia, and Candlestick is projected to begin generating meaningful sales in the coming years. For example, Five Point projects selling 20 acres in Valencia and 50 acres at The Great Park during 2026.
- Growth of the Hearthstone Land Banking Platform: The acquisition and integration of the Hearthstone land banking platform is a strategic move to introduce new recurring revenue streams and expand Five Point's partnerships with institutional capital. This venture offers fee-based earnings growth and diversifies the company's earnings profile. Hearthstone's assets under management are projected to exceed $4 billion by the end of 2026, with a larger contribution to Five Point's net income expected in 2026 and beyond.
- Commercial Land Conversion and Development: The company is exploring commercial land conversion opportunities, particularly in Irvine, to maximize value from its existing land holdings beyond residential sales. This strategy allows Five Point to monetize commercial sites within its mixed-use communities.
- Increasing Management Fee Revenue: Five Point Holdings anticipates an increase in recurring management fee revenue. The annual base management fee is expected to rise from $12 million to $13.5 million through 2026, with projections suggesting this revenue stream could reach $30 million a year, providing a stable source of income.
- Favorable Macroeconomic Conditions, Particularly Declining Mortgage Rates: While an external factor, a sustained decline in U.S. mortgage rates is expected to significantly improve housing affordability in California. This improvement is anticipated to boost demand from homebuyers, directly benefiting Five Point Holdings' land sales and overall revenue.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for Five Point Holdings, LLC (FPH)
Share Repurchases
- Five Point Holdings, LLC had an authorized share repurchase program of up to $100,000,000, with $44,900,000 remaining as of February 1, 2025.
- Actual repurchases of common stock for the last few years include $2.0 million in 2021, $2.7 million in 2022, $0.2 million in 2023, and $0.8 million in 2024.
Share Issuance
- In February 2026, Five Point issued warrants to affiliates of Blue Owl Capital Inc. to purchase up to 1,500,000 Class A shares at $7.00 per share. These warrants vest over five years, contingent on Blue Owl's capital contributions to a land banking partnership reaching specific thresholds, from $500 million to $1.7 billion.
- In March 2026, an executive settled restricted share units (RSUs) into Class A common shares and received a grant of 179,372 Class A shares as compensation. In December 2025, the CFO received 36,423 Class A common shares from vested restricted share units as equity compensation.
Inbound Investments
- Five Point Holdings acquired a 75% interest in Hearthstone Residential Holdings, LLC for approximately $59.25 million in mid-2025.
- Following the Hearthstone acquisition, Five Point established a new residential land banking investment partnership with funds managed by Blue Owl Capital. This partnership aims to facilitate the acquisition of up to $1.7 billion of land in the U.S. housing market.
- Blue Owl's participation in the land banking partnership includes the potential to receive warrants for Five Point shares, which vest upon meeting cumulative capital contribution targets starting at $500 million and rising to $1.7 billion.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were reported as $0.2 million in 2021, $0.1 million in 2022, $0.0 million in 2023, and $0.8 million in 2024.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures is on the development of mixed-use communities in coastal California, including the Great Park in Orange County, Valencia in Los Angeles County, and communities in San Francisco County.
- Development activities supported by capital allocation include significant residential land sales, such as 920 homesites for $781.7 million in 2025 at the Great Park Venture, and an industrial land sale for $42.5 million at Valencia.
Peer Outperformance in Real Estate Development
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPH | Five Point | 12.8% | 21.5x | -27.4% | 71.8% | -40.4% | — |
| JOE | St. Joe | 14.6% | 32.7x | 20.7% | 49.3% | 44.1% | +85pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care REITs | 15 | 17.1% | 68.5% | 74.2% | WELL 226% · OHI 145% · CTRE 135% |
| Retail REITs | 23 | 15.7% | 42.6% | 33.4% | SKT 131% · SPG 78% · BRX 52% |
| Other Specialized REITs | 11 | -0.1% | 23.8% | 10.8% | IRM 173% · LAMR 66% · EPR 64% |
| Hotel & Resort REITs | 16 | 48.1% | 51.5% | 9.8% | HST 71% · RHP 69% · APLE 60% |
| Real Estate Development ← | 6 | -2.9% | 25.7% | 5.2% | JOE 44% |
| Industrial REITs | 11 | 12.7% | 35.3% | -0.7% | EGP 14% · STAG 6% · CUBE 5% |
| Single-Family Residential REITs | 4 | 1.2% | 5.9% | -17.2% | AMH -4% · ELS -14% · INVH -21% |
| Multi-Family Residential REITs | 12 | -1.7% | 21.1% | -26.4% | ESS -3% · VMRK -6% · UDR -19% |
| Diversified REITs | 12 | 2.3% | 17.0% | -28.8% | EPRT 17% · WPC 13% |
| Office REITs | 19 | 0.2% | 48.5% | -34.0% | CDP 44% · HIW -4% · CUZ -6% |
| Telecom Tower REITs | 3 | 4.0% | 8.9% | -36.9% | AMT -20% · CCI -37% · SBAC -41% |
| Real Estate Services | 28 | -20.0% | -9.3% | -37.1% | JLL 38% · CBRE 28% · COMP -18% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Five Point Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| How Low Can Five Point Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 23.71 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| Rev LTM | 543 |
| Op Inc LTM | 174 |
| FCF LTM | 70 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 66 |
| CFO LTM | 75 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 72 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great Park | 879 | 31 | 39 | ||
| Valencia | 44 | 11 | 185 | ||
| Hearthstone | 12 | ||||
| San Francisco | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Add investment in Great Park Venture | 0 | ||||
| Corporate and unallocated | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Removal of Great Park Venture | -826 | ||||
| Single segment | 238 | 212 | |||
| Commercial | 0 | ||||
| Other eliminations | 0 | ||||
| Total | 110 | 238 | 212 | 43 | 224 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great Park | 626 | 192 | 22 | 31 | 14 |
| Add investment in Great Park Venture | 201 | ||||
| Hearthstone | 4 | ||||
| Valencia | -2 | 36 | 42 | -9 | 54 |
| San Francisco | -5 | -4 | -3 | -3 | -4 |
| Corporate and unallocated | -56 | -46 | -26 | -54 | -52 |
| Removal of Great Park Venture | -584 | ||||
| Commercial | -2 | 1 | |||
| Other eliminations | 0 | 0 | |||
| Total | 184 | 178 | 32 | -35 | 13 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | 1,480 | 1,425 | 1,360 | 1,314 | 1,276 |
| Valencia | 1,000 | 915 | 896 | 972 | 878 |
| Corporate and unallocated | 465 | 477 | 370 | 193 | 292 |
| Great Park | 450 | 260 | 305 | 407 | 450 |
| Hearthstone | 122 | ||||
| Add investment in Great Park Venture | 101 | ||||
| Removal of Great Park Venture | -369 | ||||
| Commercial | 38 | 49 | |||
| Other eliminations | -0 | -2 | |||
| Total | 3,249 | 3,076 | 2,969 | 2,886 | 2,943 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $4.26 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/10/2017 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -32.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $4.64 | $5.01 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -8.1% | -15.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.2% | 30.5% |
| Downside Capture | 130.49 | 105.40 |
| Upside Capture | 43.97 | 53.64 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 34.5% | 30.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.15 | 0.28 | 0.44 | 0.25 | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| Up Beta | -3.61 | -1.26 | 0.07 | -0.42 | 0.56 | 0.69 |
| Down Beta | -1.17 | -0.52 | -0.24 | -0.44 | -0.15 | 0.71 |
| Up Capture | -10% | 6% | 15% | 37% | 37% | 33% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 6 | 13 | 21 | 54 | 111 | 337 |
| Down Capture | 154% | 151% | 142% | 100% | 99% | 80% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 15 | 26 | 37 | 64 | 125 | 354 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FPH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPH | -29.7% | 30.5% | -1.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLRE) | 10.4% | 14.6% | 0.44 | 43.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | 28.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | 12.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -24.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | 46.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.2% | 43.6% | -0.61 | 13.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FPH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPH | -10.2% | 47.1% | -0.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLRE) | 1.6% | 19.2% | -0.02 | 28.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 27.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 5.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | 3.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 30.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 14.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FPH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPH | -11.8% | 47.0% | -0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLRE) | 7.3% | 20.4% | 0.31 | 38.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 38.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 2.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 13.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 41.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 14.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2026 | -6.7% | -6.7% | |
| 7/23/2026 | 4.4% | 5.6% | 2.6% |
| 4/23/2026 | 1.0% | -1.6% | -3.2% |
| 1/29/2026 | -5.0% | -8.8% | 0.4% |
| 10/29/2025 | -1.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% |
| 7/24/2025 | -14.9% | -17.1% | -11.4% |
| 4/24/2025 | 9.2% | 0.2% | 3.7% |
| 1/23/2025 | 41.6% | 58.1% | 29.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -6.6% | -7.2% |
| Max Positive | 41.6% | 58.1% | 29.3% |
| Max Negative | -14.9% | -17.1% | -24.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2026 | -6.7% | -6.7% | |
| 7/23/2026 | 4.4% | 5.6% | 2.6% |
| 4/23/2026 | 1.0% | -1.6% | -3.2% |
| 1/29/2026 | -5.0% | -8.8% | 0.4% |
| 10/29/2025 | -1.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% |
| 7/24/2025 | -14.9% | -17.1% | -11.4% |
| 4/24/2025 | 9.2% | 0.2% | 3.7% |
| 1/23/2025 | 41.6% | 58.1% | 29.3% |
| 10/17/2024 | -2.6% | -8.6% | -10.2% |
| 7/18/2024 | 3.7% | 6.6% | 0.7% |
| 4/18/2024 | -0.3% | -5.8% | 2.6% |
| 1/18/2024 | 3.4% | 14.8% | 7.1% |
| 10/19/2023 | -2.4% | -13.3% | -1.6% |
| 7/20/2023 | 11.8% | 8.6% | -7.0% |
| 4/20/2023 | 6.5% | 6.5% | -0.9% |
| 1/19/2023 | 14.1% | 12.9% | -7.5% |
| 10/27/2022 | -2.5% | -0.4% | -5.0% |
| 8/2/2022 | -3.0% | -3.5% | -7.6% |
| 5/12/2022 | -2.1% | -6.6% | -19.8% |
| 3/10/2022 | 0.7% | 5.5% | -2.6% |
| 11/3/2021 | -3.5% | -12.1% | -24.2% |
| 8/5/2021 | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| 5/10/2021 | -5.4% | -5.1% | 11.5% |
| 3/16/2021 | 2.7% | 7.3% | 1.5% |
| 11/10/2020 | -2.9% | -3.3% | 11.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -6.6% | -7.2% |
| Max Positive | 41.6% | 58.1% | 29.3% |
| Max Negative | -14.9% | -17.1% | -24.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/18/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/04/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/06/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/18/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/04/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/06/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/11/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/10/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/09/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/13/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/2/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Consolidated Net Income | Reported | 20.00 Mil | -80.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 100.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Consolidated Net Income | Reported | 100.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 100.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Consolidated Net Income | Reported | 100.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 100.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 100.00 Mil | 76.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 56.65 Mil for 2025 | |||
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 9, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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