Dream Finders Homes (DFH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.78 | Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding
Dream Finders Homes (DFH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.78Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Homebuilding
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.8% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 63% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.41 | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 39x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.6% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.8% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.41 |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 63% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 39x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DFH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Dream Finders Homes (DFH) stock moved by -28.9% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Dream Finders Homes (DFH) reported third-quarter 2025 earnings that missed analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and total revenues. The company's EPS of $0.47 was below the consensus estimate of $0.507, and total revenues of $969.8 million fell short of analyst estimates of $1.16 billion.
2. The company issued a downward revision to its full-year 2025 guidance for home closings. Dream Finders Homes adjusted its outlook to approximately 8,500 home closings for the full year 2025, a reduction from its previous projection of about 9,250 homes, signaling a less optimistic financial forecast.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DFH Return | - | - | -55% | 310% | -35% | -17% | -1% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 55% | -21% | 75% | 7% | 10% | 191% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DFH Win Rate | - | 55% | 42% | 75% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 75% | 38% | 58% | 58% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DFH Max Drawdown | - | - | -57% | 0% | -36% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -4% | -41% | -0% | -7% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CVCO, DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DFH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -75.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 306.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 356 days | 464 days |
Compare to CVCO, DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR
In The Past
Dream Finders Homes's stock fell -75.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/1/2021. A -75.4% loss requires a 306.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DFH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 05312024 | DFH | Dream Finders Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | -26.6% | -28.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 05312024 | DFH | Dream Finders Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | -26.6% | -28.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Dream Finders Homes
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 149.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 23.8 |
| Rev LTM | 14,049 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,589 |
| FCF LTM | 736 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,652 |
| CFO LTM | 765 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,720 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 23.8 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 8.6 |
| P/E | 10.9 |
| P/CFO | 16.5 |
| Total Yield | 10.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 25.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 101.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -23.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 33.2% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midwest | 915 | ||||
| Southeast | 781 | ||||
| Corporate | 408 | ||||
| Mid-Atlantic | 405 | ||||
| Financial Services | 207 | ||||
| Reconciling Items | -154 | -89 | -71 | -35 | -48 |
| Colorado | 188 | 116 | 52 | 44 | |
| Jacksonville | 300 | 208 | 163 | 162 | |
| Jet Home Loans | 96 | 77 | 39 | 49 | |
| Orlando | 277 | 132 | 77 | 44 | |
| Other | 494 | 380 | 236 | 208 | |
| Texas | 793 | 743 | |||
| The Carolinas | 311 | 247 | 161 | ||
| Washington DC (DC Metro) | 62 | 41 | 56 | ||
| Total | 2,562 | 2,371 | 1,894 | 734 | 515 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3022023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |