Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Market Price (12/14/2025): $77.98 | Market Cap: $308.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Market Price (12/14/2025): $77.98Market Cap: $308.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.1% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.1%, Dist 3Y High is -3.1% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.1%, Dist 3Y High is -3.1% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CSCO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Q4 FY2025 Earnings Despite Initial Market Reaction: Cisco Systems reported robust fourth-quarter fiscal year 2025 results on August 13, 2025, exceeding Wall Street's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations. The company announced $14.7 billion in revenue, an 8% increase year-over-year, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.99, up 14% year-over-year. Product orders also grew by 7% year-over-year. However, the stock initially experienced a slight dip, with shares falling more than 1% on August 14, 2025, due to what investors perceived as an "in-line" or "cautious" outlook for fiscal year 2026.
2. Accelerating AI Infrastructure Demand: A significant driver of Cisco's performance was the accelerating momentum in its AI infrastructure business. Q4 FY2025 saw AI infrastructure orders from webscale customers exceeding $800 million for the quarter and over $2 billion for the full fiscal year, more than doubling the initial target. This trend continued into Q1 FY2026, with AI orders surging to $1.3 billion from hyperscalers and an additional $200 million-plus from diversified clients, demonstrating strong sequential improvement and positioning Cisco as a key player in the AI era.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CSCO Return | -3% | 46% | -22% | 9% | 21% | 37% | 98% |
| Peers Return | 31% | 77% | -19% | 66% | 51% | 11% | 423% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CSCO Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 73% | 42% | 65% | 65% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CSCO Max Drawdown | -30% | -1% | -36% | -3% | -9% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -6% | -32% | -8% | -7% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPE, ANET, DELL, PANW, FTNT. See CSCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CSCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 856 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 375 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 624 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2906 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ANET, VRT, NTAP, FIEE, CSCO
In The Past
Cisco Systems's stock fell -38.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -38.6% loss requires a 62.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CSCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 33.0% | 38.8% | -0.9% |
| 10312020 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 44.0% | 60.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 33.0% | 38.8% | -0.9% |
| 10312020 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 44.0% | 60.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cisco Systems
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 103.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 116.7 |
| Rev LTM | 21,316 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,829 |
| FCF LTM | 3,868 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,071 |
| CFO LTM | 4,059 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,757 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 116.7 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| P/EBIT | 23.8 |
| P/E | 31.9 |
| P/CFO | 24.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 105.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 31.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Networking | 29,229 | 34,570 | |||
| Services | 14,550 | 13,856 | 13,539 | 13,804 | 13,323 |
| Security | 5,075 | 3,859 | 3,158 | ||
| Collaboration | 4,113 | 4,052 | 4,472 | 4,727 | |
| Observability | 837 | 661 | |||
| End-to-End Security | 3,699 | 3,382 | |||
| Internet for the Future | 5,276 | 4,514 | |||
| Optimized Application Experiences | 729 | 654 | |||
| Other Products | 11 | 15 | 33 | ||
| Secure, Agile Networks | 23,831 | 22,722 | |||
| Applications | 5,568 | ||||
| Infrastructure Platforms | 27,219 | ||||
| Total | 53,804 | 56,998 | 51,557 | 49,818 | 49,301 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | 4.6% | 6.0% | |
| 8/13/2025 | -1.6% | -4.7% | -5.5% |
| 5/14/2025 | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% |
| 2/12/2025 | 2.1% | 3.4% | -3.2% |
| 11/13/2024 | -2.1% | -2.8% | -0.9% |
| 8/14/2024 | 6.8% | 11.0% | 9.6% |
| 5/15/2024 | -2.7% | -4.5% | -8.0% |
| 2/14/2024 | -2.4% | -3.4% | -2.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.2% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -4.7% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 7.1% | 11.0% | 14.4% |
| Max Negative | -13.7% | -13.0% | -24.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 11182025 | 10-Q 10/25/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9032025 | 10-K 7/26/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5202025 | 10-Q 4/26/2025 |
| 1312025 | 2182025 | 10-Q 1/25/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11192024 | 10-Q 10/26/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9052024 | 10-K 7/27/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5212024 | 10-Q 4/27/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2202024 | 10-Q 1/27/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11212023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9072023 | 10-K 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5242023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 2212023 | 10-Q 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11222022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9082022 | 10-K 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5252022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 2222022 | 10-Q 1/29/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
